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Interventions to improve functionality among paediatric patients with oncological diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

Por: Holanda · K. M. · Vivas Costa · J. · Pereira · W. M. G. · Barbosa · A. S. · Martinez-Silveira · M. · Garcia-Hermoso · A. · Guerra · P. H. · Bezerra · I. N. · Barbosa Filho · V.
Introduction

Cancer is the leading cause of death and morbidity among children and adolescents worldwide. Functionality-based interventions are relevant among children and adolescents with an oncological diagnosis, whence studies summarising evidence on this topic are needed. This systematic review will summarise evidence on the effect of interventions to improve functionality indicators among paediatric patients diagnosed with cancer.

Methods and analysis

This protocol will follow Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA)-Protocols reporting guidelines. The systematic review will be conducted according to the Cochrane Handbook and PRISMA 2020. Studies will be searched in MEDLINE (PubMed), Embase, Web of Science, CENTRAL, LILACS and PEDro. Additional searches will include Google Scholar, reference lists of included studies, relevant reviews and trial registries. Studies will be included if they implement a functionality-based intervention. They must evaluate effects among paediatric patients with an oncological diagnosis. Secondary outcomes will include health-related quality of life. There will be no limits to language or year of publication, and articles published in peer-reviewed journals will be accepted. Only randomised controlled trials will be included. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool 2. Two independent reviewers will select studies, extract data and assess risk of bias. A narrative synthesis and meta-analysis will be conducted if studies are clinically and methodologically homogeneous. Statistical heterogeneity will be assessed using Higgins’ inconsistency test (I²). Meta-analysis may estimate combined effects using random-effects and the inverse variance method. The R statistical software will be used. The certainty of evidence will be evaluated for each outcome using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system.

Ethics and dissemination

This study used data from previously published studies, thus waiving submission to an Ethics Committee. Scientific dissemination strategies will include publication in peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and workshops for the public.

PROSPERO registration number

CRD42024462833.

Prevalence, factors and association with academic performance of anaemia in Kandahar schoolchildren: a cross-sectional analytical study

Por: Rahimi · B. A. · Lali · W. M. · Saeed · K. M. I. · Ahmadzai · S. A. H. · Akbari · K. · Mukhlis · A. H. · Azimi · M.
Objectives

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and associated factors of anaemia and its association with the academic performance of schoolchildren in Kandahar, Afghanistan.

Design

This was a cross-sectional analytical study.

Setting and participants

This was a school-based study conducted among 1866 schoolchildren aged 6–14 years in Kandahar city from September to December 2023. Haemoglobin concentration was measured using a portable HemoCue Hb 301 analyser, while the WHO age-adjusted cut-off for haemoglobin was used to classify anaemia. Data were analysed by using descriptive statistics, the ² test and multivariate logistic regression.

Results

In this study, the mean age of the children was 9.1 years, 61.1% (1138/1866) were boys, 83.6% (1560/1866) had illiterate mothers, and 81.3% (1517/1866) belonged to poor families. Prevalence of anaemia among schoolchildren was 64.1% (1196/1866), while 20.8% (388/1866), 41.7% (778/1866), and 1.6% (30/1866) were suffering from mild, moderate and severe anaemia, respectively. Main associated factors of anaemia were being male (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.7, p=0.003), unemployed father (AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.2, p=0.020), poor family (AOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.8 to 2.9, p

Conclusions

Prevalence of anaemia was very high and is a severe public health problem in schoolchildren of Kandahar. Based on the known consequences of anaemia on academic performance, the education and health authorities of Afghanistan should take serious steps to alleviate this problem. Periodic iron supplementation and deworming, as well as daily iron-rich mid-day meal programmes, should be started for both boys and girls in schools.

ctDNA guided immunotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a nationwide Danish, randomised, intervention study (PRELUCA--PRediction in LUng CAncer Treatment) - study protocol

Por: Andersen · M. E. · Nyhus · C. H. · Szejniuk · W. M. · Wahlstrom · S. · Timm · S. · Pallisgaard · N. · Madsen · M. G. · Mikkelsen · M. D. · Ahlborn · L. B. · Gehl · J. · Frank · M. S.
Introduction

PRELUCA is a randomised, intervention, non-inferiority study designed to use real-time, longitudinal circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) measurements to evaluate the efficacy of immunotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The primary outcome is overall survival between the two groups: the standard of care group (computer tomography scan evaluation) and intervention group (ctDNA evaluation).

Methods and analysis

The inclusion and exclusion criteria align with European Society for Medical Oncology treatment guidelines and permit broad inclusion of NSCLC patients, ensuring ‘real-world’ representativeness. The study uses a tumour-informed method, using baseline next generation sequencing analyses to design patient-specific droplet digital PCR assays, which are run with collected blood samples 1 week prior to the intended treatment, enabling real-time evaluation via ctDNA Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours.

Ethics and dissemination

Inclusion began in July 2023 and patients are now being actively included in five locations across Denmark. Approval by The Committee on Health Research Ethics of Region Zealand was gained on 4 May 2023.

Trial registration number

NCT05889247.

PhyCARE reporting guidelines for physiotherapy case reports: a consensus-based development

Por: Naqvi · W. M. · Mishra · G. V. · Shaikh · S. Z. · Pashine · A. A. · Sanchez Romero · E. A. · Swaminathan · N. · Jiandani · M. P. · Herrero · P. · Zazulak · B. · Macpherson · C. E. · Goyal · C. · Zadro · J. R. · Sahni · P. · Innocenti · T. · Quazi Syed · Z. · Hoogeboom · T. · Kiekens · C
Objectives

Case reports (CRs) are essential in physiotherapy, yet reporting remains heterogeneous and insufficiently standardised. The 2013 CAse REport (CARE) guideline improves transparency but lacks physiotherapy-specific detail. This study aimed to develop a consensus-driven extension of the CARE reporting guideline to support structured reporting of physiotherapy CRs, encompassing physiotherapy-specific assessments and interventions.

Design

An e-Delphi consensus process study following the ACcurate COnsensus Reporting Document (ACCORD) guidelines.

Setting

Online.

Participants

Forty-four international experts in physiotherapy practice, research and education, along with six core committee members.

Methods

Experts objectively scored items for relevance (5-point Likert scale) and provided open-ended responses for each item of the drafts. Scores and responses were analysed to facilitate iterative refinement of the Physiotherapy CAse REport (PhyCARE) reporting guidelines. Consensus was predetermined at over 70% agreement.

Results

Round 1 had the majority of items achieving ≥70% agreement, except two items that did not meet the threshold were revised and replaced with an alternative. Five new items addressing physiotherapy-specific reporting needs were added, and 10 items were relocated. In round 2, all 35 items across 13 domains achieved 84%–100% agreement. The nomenclature of one domain was revised to ‘Outcomes and Follow-up’. Following two e-Delphi rounds, consensus was achieved, and suggestions from online meeting, piloting led to item rephrasing, after which the PhyCARE guidelines were finalised.

Conclusion

The PhyCARE guidelines have the potential to provide a physiotherapy-specific extension of CARE to support structured, transparent and reproducible reporting of physiotherapy CRs.

Associations between food-related behaviours, nutrient intake and nutritional status through Structural Equation Model (SEM) among clients undergoing Community-Based Treatment and Rehabilitation (CBTaR): A cross-sectional study in Kelantan, Malaysia

Por: Aji · A. S. · Rohana · A. J. · Geik · O. P. · Rafdinal · W. · Wan Mohammad · W. M. Z. · Mohd Yasin · M. A. · Tengku Ismail · T. A. · Vanoh · D. · Mohamed · N. N.
Objective

To examine the associations between food-related behaviours and nutrient intake on nutritional status among clients undergoing Community-Based Treatment and Rehabilitation (CBTaR) in Kelantan, Malaysia.

Design

Cross-sectional analytical study.

Setting

Seven CBTaR centres (n=7) across the state of Kelantan, Malaysia.

Participants

A total of 393 adult clients (aged 18 years and above) enrolled in CBTaR programmes between June and December 2022 were selected through stratified random sampling.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

The primary outcome was nutritional status, assessed using body mass index. Secondary outcomes included nutrient intake (macronutrients and micronutrients) and food-related behaviours (emotional eating, external eating, restrained eating and food addiction), measured through Bahasa Malaysia validated questionnaires and 24-hour dietary recalls. All variables were introduced into the structural equation modelling to examine the associations among these variables and their association with nutritional status.

Results

The results revealed that food-related behaviour was significantly associated with the nutrient intake (β=–0.524, p≤0.001). Additionally, the drug use profile significantly determined the food-related behaviour (β=–0.129, p=0.006) and nutritional status (β=–0.134, p=0.007). Nutrient intake was found to be a significant predictor of nutritional status (β=–0.213, p≤0.001). Sociodemographic and drug use profiles were significantly correlated with nutritional outcomes through behavioural and dietary associations. Importance-performance map analysis identified nutrient intake as the most impactful variable, highlighting the need for urgent intervention (R2=0.272).

Conclusions

This study highlights that nutrient intake is a significant predictor associated with food-related behaviours on nutritional status among individuals with substance use disorder. Integrating nutrition counselling and behavioural interventions into CBTaR services may improve recovery and long-term health outcomes.

Attitudes towards addressing environmental sustainability in patient-provider interactions: a qualitative study among Dutch physicians

Por: Cohen · E. S. · Grandiek · F. · Kringos · D. S. · Kouwenberg · L. H. J. A. · Sperna Weiland · N. H. · Richie · C. · Aarts · J. W. M. · Hehenkamp · W. J. K.
Objectives

To investigate the attitudes of physicians towards addressing environmental sustainability in patient conversations, and to identify barriers and facilitators to doing so.

Design

A qualitative, nation-wide study was conducted using semi-structured online focus groups and interviews. Reflexive thematic analysis was used to analyse transcripts, guided by the Theoretical Domains Framework.

Setting

Secondary and tertiary healthcare institutions in the Netherlands.

Participants

Participants were medical specialists and residents in obstetrics and gynaecology (OB-GYN physicians) in the Netherlands. Participants were purposefully identified to capture diverse demographics and practice settings.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

Physicians’ attitudes towards discussing the environmental impact of healthcare and the health effects of environmental pollution with patients. Themes were identified and categorised using the Theoretical Domains Framework.

Results

The study included 28 OB-GYN physicians working across 23 healthcare institutions in the Netherlands. Six themes were developed: (1) strong sense of urgency to reduce healthcare's environmental impact, (2) knowledge gaps impair communication about environmental impact to patients, (3) prioritisation of individual patient health over environmental concerns in decision-making, (4) perceived lack of patient interest in environmental outcomes, (5) system-level support facilitates discussions about environmental sustainability with patients and (6) limited perceived value in discussing the health effects of environmental pollution and climate change with patients.

Conclusions

OB-GYN physicians are supportive of discussing the environmental impact of healthcare services when clinically appropriate. Addressing knowledge gaps, providing evidence-based guidance and embedding sustainability into clinical guidelines and decision aids may facilitate the integration of environmental sustainability into patient-provider interactions.

Adherence to Choosing Wisely Africa recommendations in breast cancer care: a cross-sectional study across three Sub-Saharan African centres

Por: Rubagumya · F. · Rugengamanzi · E. · Nyagabona · S. K. · Ndumbalo · J. · Kwizera · V. · Uwimbabazi · A. · Celyna · K. · Ayettey · H. · Vanderpuye · V. · Hopman · W. M. · Hammad · N. · Booth · C. M.
Objective

The expenses associated with cancer treatment are increasing at a rapid pace. The financial strain of providing care is experienced worldwide, but is particularly pronounced in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). This has resulted in a growing acknowledgement of the importance of value-based cancer care. Choosing Wisely Africa (CWA) is an initiative aimed at reducing the excessive use and expenses associated with cancer treatment. In this study, we assessed adherence to CWA recommendations for the treatment of breast cancer in three high-volume cancer centres in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Design

A cross-sectional study across Rwanda, Ghana and Tanzania was conducted, involving a review of medical records to assess adherence to five measurable CWA practices in breast cancer care. The study used inferential statistics, such as 2 tests, to compare adherence among these countries.

Settings

This study was conducted in three cancer centres (Ocean Road Cancer Institute, Rwanda Military Hospital and Korle Bu Teaching Hospital) in three countries (Tanzania, Rwanda and Ghana, respectively).

Participants

A total of 542 patients were recruited. Eligible patients were those with a breast cancer diagnosis and complete data as pertaining to five CWA recommendations.

Results

A total of 542 participants with a mean age of 51 years were included. Participants were well distributed across Ghana (37%), Rwanda (34%) and Tanzania (29%). Female patients represented 97% of the study cohort. Half (51%) of the participants had some form of insurance. The study observed high adherence to cancer staging (94%) before treatment and histological confirmation (91%) before breast lump removal across all sites. Hypofractionation was used in 0% of cases in Rwanda, 42% in Ghana and 70% in Tanzania.

Conclusion

This study provides critical insights into the implementation of CWA recommendations in breast cancer care in SSA. It highlights the disparities in adherence to CWA recommendations across different centres, showing the need for policy-driven changes and healthcare infrastructure improvement to standardise cancer care practices in LMICs.

Long-term recovery from post-traumatic neck pain: protocol for a prospective cohort study in the emergency department

Por: Lynaes · C. · Ravn · S. L. · Skou · S. T. · Mogensen · C. B. · Arvig · M. D. · Christensen · S. W. M. · Sterling · M. · Andersen · T. E.
Introduction

Post-traumatic neck pain is common, representing a substantial human and societal burden. About 15%–25% of individuals involved in an accident causing whiplash continue to experience moderate-to-severe symptoms and functional impairment 1 year post-trauma. Factors such as age, high pain intensity, hypersensitivity to pain and early post-traumatic hyperarousal are associated with persistent neck pain. However, multiple questions remain unanswered regarding how best to improve early care. As such, research on recovery patterns (including indicators for health economic burden) and their predictors is still needed, including biomarkers for pre-traumatic and peri-traumatic stress, and the value of early prediction tools.

Methods and analysis

This prospective cohort study will include 100 participants (18 years) suffering from post-traumatic neck pain sustained within 72 hours of an accident. At baseline (a combination of inclusion and 1 week assessment), eligible participants will undergo a thorough evaluation, including assessment of descriptive characteristics, self-reported variables (eg, pain, disability, sleep quality and post-traumatic stress), biomarkers (eg, heart rate variability (HRV) and hair cortisol) and clinical tests (eg, cervical range of motion). Follow-up will be conducted at 3, 6 and 12 months post-trauma. Further, register data (eg, data on labour market attachment) will be added for the period. Among other methods, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and multivariable regression analyses will be used to evaluate performance and associations of the prediction tools and their associations with measures of HRV.

The sample size calculation is based on previous studies, estimating that 15% of participants will develop moderate-to-severe ongoing symptoms. Using a conservative estimate, 64 participants are needed to achieve a statistical power of 90% with an expected area under the curve of 0.80. Accounting for a 25% loss to follow-up, 80 participants are required. For regression analysis, 100 participants will be included. The prediction tool will be validated using ROC analysis, sensitivity and specificity. Logistic regression models will be performed with and without biomarkers and pain sensitivity. Health economic costs will be compared across groups. Multivariable regression will examine the link between HRV and post-traumatic stress disorder, adjusting for confounders and a moderation analysis will assess hair cortisol as a potential moderator.

Ethics and dissemination

The study is approved by the Regional Committee on Health Research Ethics of Southern Denmark (S-20230037). Due to the acute nature of recruitment, the study design does not allow for a 24-hour reflection period; however, this approach has been approved by the Committee.

Study results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and disseminated through non-scientific outlets, including patient and professional publications, press releases and social media. If effective, workshops for clinicians will be organised. Results will be published regardless of outcome, with coauthorships following ICMJE guidelines.

Trial registration number

NCT06176209.

Time-varying predictors of e-cigarette and cigarette use trajectories from adolescence to emerging adulthood: a longitudinal analysis of US youth in the PATH Study, 2013-2020

Por: Stanton · C. A. · Tang · Z. · Sharma · E. · Anesetti-Rothermel · A. · Marshall · D. · Park-Lee · E. · Silveira · M. L. · Xiao · H. · Deng · L. · Lagasse · L. · Rass · O. · Lee · R. · Valverde · R. · Blanco · C. · Kimmel · H. L. · Compton · W. M. · Hyland · A. J. · Pearson · J. L.
Objective

To examine the longitudinal impact of time-varying factors on US youth’s trajectories of initiation and use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes during the transition from adolescence to young adulthood.

Design

Longitudinal.

Setting

Nationally representative US survey, the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

Participants

2682 US youth (aged 16–17) at wave (W)1 of the PATH Study across six waves (2013–2020) into young adulthood (aged 22–23).

Primary and secondary outcome measures

Unweighted longitudinal latent class analyses identified trajectory classes of e-cigarette and cigarette use, separately. Nationally representative weighted multinomial logistic regression analyses examined time-varying harm perceptions, substance use problems and tobacco product first tried as predictors of these trajectory classes.

Results

Five e-cigarette classes (2013–2020; 41.5% Persistent Never Use, 12.6% W5 Initiation, 19.9% W3 Initiation, 15.2% Prior Initiation, 10.8% High Frequency Past 30-Day (P30D) Use) and five cigarette classes (2013–2019; 58.6% Persistent Never Use, 11.5% W4 Initiation, 10.9% W2 Initiation, 9.6% Prior Initiation, 9.5% High Frequency P30D Use) were identified. Time-varying harm perceptions and substance use problems were associated with trajectories of initiation and use for both products. Cigarettes, cigarillos, other combustibles and any smokeless tobacco as first product tried were associated with e-cigarette initiation and/or progression to high frequency use. E-cigarettes and hookah as first product tried were associated with later cigarette initiation. High Frequency P30D Cigarette Use was less likely if the first product tried was e-cigarettes, cigarillos, hookah or any smokeless tobacco product.

Conclusions

Results reinforce the need for identification and intervention of early substance use among younger adolescents and targeted public health messaging to address changing harm perceptions and prevent initiation among older adolescents.

Harnessing digital phenotyping to advance university student mental health (Brightline) in Singapore: study protocol for a prospective observational study

Por: Ito · S. · Ang · C.-S. · Kampman · O. P. · Rokde · K. · Buddhika · T. · Heaukulani · C. · Tan · Z.-W. · Dewanti · F. A. · Au · E. W. M. · Huan · V. S. · Morris · R. J. · Khong · A. W. H. · Ho · A. H. Y.
Introduction

Mental health issues such as depression and anxiety are highly and disproportionally prevalent among university students. Beyond the academic rigour, stressors imposed by a new environment result in them being vulnerable to the onset and manifestation of mental health symptomatology. Leveraging smartphones and wearables for digital phenotyping capabilities is an innovative approach for monitoring and intervening in the mental health conditions of university students. This provides a unique opportunity to collect and identify digital and behavioural biomarkers, subsequently enabling the development of predictive models to identify university students at risk.

Methods and analysis

This study—Brightline—will employ an observational study design over a 6-month period, recruiting 500 students from a major public university in Singapore. Passive data collection will occur continuously throughout the monitoring period through a wearable device (Fitbit Charge 6) and smartphone sensors via the Brightline app, which uses a digital phenotyping data collection platform. Active data collection will consist of self-report questionnaires to be completed at the beginning of the study and follow-up assessments at 1, 3 and 6 months after. The passive and active data collected will be analysed to identify the digital biomarkers associated with depression, anxiety, stress, loneliness and affect among university students. Predictive models of these mental health issues will also be developed.

Ethics and dissemination

This study was approved by the Nanyang Technological University Institutional Review Board (IRB-2023-894). Findings from this study will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at academic conferences.

Trial registration number

NCT06770075.

How can post-COVID care be improved using patient experiences with received care and perceived health? A qualitative study of focus groups with 30 patients having post-COVID in the Netherlands

Por: Gruiskens · J. · Gidding-Slok · A. H. · van Meulenbroek · T. · Huijnen · I. · Muris · J. W. M. · Verbunt · J. · van Schayck · O. C. · Burgers · J. S.
Objectives

To provide bottom-up guidance on improving post-COVID care using patients’ experiences with received care and their perceived health

Design

Qualitative study design using focus group interviews

Participants

30 patients with post-COVID condition recruited through purposive sampling based on patient complexity and diversity

Results

Three dimensions for potential improvements of post-COVID care were identified: (1) building, supporting and maintaining patient resilience, (2) redesigning healthcare pathways to meet patient needs and (3) embedding post-COVID care in health systems and organisations. A conceptual framework that could guide improvements in post-COVID care was developed.

Conclusion

This study revealed several opportunities for improving and implementing post-COVID care following a person-centred approach in multidisciplinary integrated care pathways with an integrative vision of health.

Are we closing the gender gap in academic oncology? An observational study of gender disparities in participant engagement at the ASCO 2024 annual meeting

Por: Puhr · H. C. · Cammarota · A. · Ettaieb · M. · Flierman · I. · Gisinger · T. · Glas · A. · Guven · D. C. · Siebenhüner · A. · Steindl · A. · Szydlik · V. · Valpione · S. · Yip · M. · van Laarhoven · H. W. M.
Objective

Despite global efforts, gender disparities in oncology may persist. Understanding these disparities within the context of major conferences can inform strategies to promote gender inclusiveness in the field. This study evaluates the participation of women and men at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) 2024 congress, focusing on chairs, speakers and audience questioners.

Design

Observational study.

Setting

152 recorded sessions of the ASCO 2024 annual meeting, one of the largest conferences in the field of oncology, available on the ASCO website.

Participants

Individuals serving as chairs, speakers and audience members who asked questions.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

In this observational study, gender for chairs, speakers and audience questioners across 152 sessions of the ASCO 2024 congress was assessed by two independent reviewers using audio and video recordings. Speaking times for questions and responses were also evaluated. Statistical analyses, including 2 and unpaired t-tests, were conducted to analyse the data.

Results

Women were well represented as chairs (n=124) and speakers (n=402) in 66% and 95% of sessions, respectively. However, only 21% of questions from the audience were posed by women, while 37% of questions were asked by men and 42% online or by chairs/speakers. Women were more likely to pose questions when the sessions were chaired by women (71% vs 53%; p=0.047). There were no statistically significant gender disparities concerning speaking time (questions: p=0.30; responses: 0.53). The response dynamics indicated a pattern of gender homogeneity, with individuals more frequently responding to questions from their own gender.

Conclusions

While the balanced representation of women in leadership roles at the ASCO 2024 congress reflects positive development in gender equality, disparities in active participation persist. These findings underscore the need for strategies that not only promote women in visible roles but also foster an environment that supports their active engagement in scientific discussions.

Comparison of outpatient attendance, cardiovascular risk management and cardiovascular health across preCOVID-19, during and postCOVID-19 periods: a prospective cohort study

Por: Zondag · A. G. M. · Haitjema · S. · de Groot · M. C. H. · de Boer · A. R. · van Solinge · W. W. · Bots · M. L. · Vernooij · R. W. M.
Objective

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial decrease was observed in hospital admissions and in-hospital procedures for patients with acute cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The extent to which measures to prevent COVID-19 transmission, for example, lockdowns, affected the outpatient care of patients at higher cardiovascular risk remains unclear. We aimed to compare outpatient department (OPD) attendance, cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) and cardiovascular health (CVH) of patients at higher cardiovascular risk referred to an OPD of a tertiary care centre between preCOVID-19, during and postCOVID-19 periods.

Design, setting and participants

We included all adult patients at higher cardiovascular risk referred to the cardiology, vascular medicine, diabetology, geriatrics, nephrology or multidisciplinary vascular surgery OPDs of the University Medical Centre Utrecht, the Netherlands, between March 2019 and December 2022, in a prospective cohort study.

Main outcome measures

We assessed trends in the number of first and follow-up appointments and in the completeness of extractable CVRM indicators from the electronic health record (EHR) as a proxy for CVRM guideline adherence. CVH was determined using the Life’s Essential 8 metric (score 0–100, the higher score, the better). We investigated whether CVH differed between COVID-19 periods compared with the reference period (ie, 2019) and stratified by OPDs, using multivariable linear regression, adjusted for age, gender, CVD history and whether the patient had a previous appointment before the reference period.

Results

Among 15 143 patients, we observed a 33% reduction in the weekly number of first appointments during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the largest reductions in the cardiology and nephrology OPDs, with no differences between women and men. Follow-up appointments conducted remotely, compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic, increased significantly for all OPDs. CVRM indicators were up to 11% less extractable during the first lockdown yet returned to prepandemic levels directly after the first lockdown period. The CVH score of patients visiting the nephrology, vascular medicine and geriatrics OPDs during the first lockdown was 11.23 (95% CI 2.74 to 19.72), 5.68 (95% CI 0.82 to 10.54) and 5.66 (95% CI 0.01 to 11.31) points higher, respectively, compared with the prepandemic period. In between the second and third lockdowns, the CVH score was comparable to the preCOVID reference period, yet for the cardiology OPD it was significantly higher (5.54, 95% CI 2.04 to 9.05).

Conclusions

During the COVID-19 pandemic, weekly numbers of first appointments to OPDs decreased, and a population with a higher CVH score (ie, better CVH) visited certain OPDs, especially during the first lockdown period. These suggest that patients with poorer CVH more often avoided or were unable to visit OPDs, which might have resulted in missed opportunities to control cardiovascular risk factors and potentially may have led to preventable disease outcomes. For future epidemics and pandemics, it seems vital to develop a strategy that includes an emphasis on seeking healthcare when needed, with specific attention to patients at higher CVD risk.

Forecasting birth trends in Ethiopia using time-series and machine-learning models: a secondary data analysis of EDHS surveys (2000-2019)

Por: Alemayehu · M. A. · Ejigu · A. G. · Mekonen · H. · Teym · A. · Temesegen · A. · Bayeh · G. M. · Yeshiwas · A. G. · Anteneh · R. M. · Atikilit · G. · Shimels · T. · Yenew · C. · Ayele · W. M. · Ahmed · A. F. · Kassa · A. A. · Tsega · T. D. · Tsega · S. S. · Mekonnen · B. A. · Malkamu · B.
Objective

Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, faces significant demographic transitions, with fertility rates playing a central role in shaping economic and healthcare policies. Family planning programmes face challenges due to funding limitations. The recent suspension of the US Agency for International Development funding exacerbates these issues, highlighting the need for accurate birth forecasting to guide policy and resource allocation. This study applied time-series and advanced machine-learning models to forecast future birth trends in Ethiopia.

Design

Secondary data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey from 2000 to 2019 were used. After data preprocessing steps, including data conversion, filtering, aggregation and transformation, stationarity was checked using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Time-series decomposition was then performed, followed by time-series splitting. Seven forecasting models, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Prophet, Generalised Linear Models with Elastic Net Regularisation (GLMNET), Random Forest and Prophet-XGBoost, were built and compared. The models’ performance was evaluated using key metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R-squared value.

Results

GLMNET emerged as the best model, explaining 77% of the variance with an RMSE of 119.01. Prophet-XGBoost performed reasonably well but struggled to capture the full complexity of the data, with a lower R-squared value of 0.32 and an RMSE of 146.87. Forecasts were made for both average monthly births and average births per woman over a 10-year horizon (2025–2034). The forecast for average monthly births indicated a gradual decline over the projection period. Meanwhile, the average births per woman showed an increasing trend but fluctuated over time, influenced by demographic shifts such as changes in fertility preferences, age structure and migration patterns.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining time-series models and machine learning, with GLMNET and Prophet XGBoost emerging as the most effective. While average monthly births are expected to decline due to demographic transitions and migration, the average births per woman will remain high, reflecting persistent fertility preferences within certain subpopulations. These findings underscore the need for policies addressing both population trends and sociocultural factors.

Surgery on the aortic arch and feasibility of electroencephalography (SAFE) monitoring in neonates: protocol for a prospective observational cohort study

Por: McDevitt · W. M. · Jones · T. J. · Quinn · L. · Easter · C. L. · Jing · J. · Westover · M. B. · Scholefield · B. R. · Seri · S. · Drury · N. E.
Introduction

While survival rates following neonatal surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD) have improved over the years, neurodevelopmental delays are still highly prevalent in these patients. After correcting for the CHD subtype, the severity of developmental impairment is dependent on multiple factors, including intraoperative brain injury, which is more frequent and more severe in those undergoing aortic arch repair with deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA). It is proposed that brain injury may be reduced if cooling is stopped at the point of electrocerebral inactivity (ECI) on electroencephalogram (EEG), but there is limited evidence to support this as few centres perform perioperative EEG routinely. This study aims to assess the feasibility of EEG monitoring during neonatal aortic arch repair and investigate the relationship between temperature and EEG to inform the design of a future clinical trial.

Methods and analysis

Single-centre prospective observational cohort study in a UK specialist children’s hospital, aiming to recruit 74 neonates (≤4 weeks corrected age) undergoing aortic arch repair with DHCA. EEG will be acquired at least 1–3 hours before surgery, and brain activity will be monitored continuously until 24 hours following admission to intensive care. Demographic, clinical, surgical and outcome variables will be collected. Feasibility will be measured by the number of patients recruited, data collection procedures, technically successful EEG recordings and adverse events. The main outcomes are the temperature at which ECI is achieved and its duration, EEG patterns at key perioperative steps and neurodevelopmental outcomes at 24 months postsurgery.

Ethics and dissemination

The study was approved by the Yorkshire and The Humber Sheffield National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (20/YH/0192) on 18 June 2020. Written informed consent will be obtained from the participant’s parent/guardian prior to surgery. Findings will be disseminated to the academic community through peer-reviewed publications and presentations at conferences. Parents/guardians will be informed of the results through a newsletter in conjunction with local charities.

Theory-based chatbot for promoting colorectal cancer screening in a community setting in Hong Kong: study protocol of a randomised controlled trial

Por: Hu · Y. · Lau · W. M. · Wang · Z. J. · Tang · R. S. Y. · Wu · X. · Mo · P. K. H. · Wong · S. Y. S. · Meng · M. L. H. · Dong · D. · Sung · J. J. Y. · Lam · T. Y. T.
Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Despite the organised CRC screening programme, the uptake rate of the population-based CRC screening was still low. Thus, we will conduct a randomised controlled trial in a community setting to evaluate the effectiveness of a theory-based chatbot in promoting CRC screening uptake.

Methods and analysis

A total of 500 eligible participants will be randomly assigned to a WhatsApp Messenger-initiated chatbot outreach group or a standard text reminder group at a ratio of 1:1. The intervention group will deliver Chinese culturally tailored education texts and videos developed based on the Health Belief Model and the Trans-Theoretical Model. The control group will deliver a standard text reminder of information about the Hong Kong organised CRC screening programme. In addition to the baseline assessment and postintervention assessment, all subjects will be followed up for 3 months and 6 months, respectively. The primary outcome will be the CRC screening uptake rate at the 3 month and 6 month follow-up. The secondary outcomes will be the intention to undergo CRC screening uptake, time interval to participate in and complete screening after recruitment, and reasons for not participating in screening at the 3 month and 6 month follow-up. Quantitative data will be analysed using Student’s t-test, Pearson’s 2 test or Fisher’s exact test. Qualitative data will be analysed by thematic analysis.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethical approval of this trial was granted by the Joint Chinese University of Hong Kong-New Territories East Cluster Clinical Research Ethics Committee (2022.614). Written informed consent will be obtained from study participants before enrolment. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals.

Trial registration number

The study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT06192862).

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