FreshRSS

🔒
❌ Acerca de FreshRSS
Hay nuevos artículos disponibles. Pincha para refrescar la página.
AnteayerTus fuentes RSS

Assessment of health-related quality of life and treatment satisfaction and their associated factors among older adults with heart failure: a prospective observational study in selected hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia

Por: Tarekegn · G. Y. · Dagnew · F. N. · Wondm · S. A. · Anberbr · S. S. · Tamene · F. B. · Tsega · S. S. · Asmare · Z. A. · Zeleke · T. K. · Dagnew · S. B. · Zerihun · T. E. · Kassaw · A. T. · Mussie · D. A. · Melese · T. B. · Moges · T. A.
Objectives

To assess health-related quality of life (HRQoL), treatment satisfaction and associated factors among older adults with acute heart failure in Northwest Ethiopia.

Design

Prospective, multicentre observational study.

Setting

Three tertiary hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia provide secondary and tertiary care services.

Participants

A total of 422 patients aged ≥60 years with a confirmed diagnosis of acute heart failure were consecutively enrolled between December 2024 and April 2025. Patients with unstable psychiatric conditions or advanced kidney disease were excluded.

Outcome measures

HRQoL was assessed using the WHO Quality of Life – Brief Version questionnaire, and treatment satisfaction was measured using the Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire for Medication (TSQM). Multiple linear regression identified factors associated with HRQoL and treatment satisfaction.

Results

95% of participants reported moderate HRQoL, and 3% reported poor HRQoL. Weight loss was positively associated with HRQoL (β=1.52; 95% CI 0.04 to 3.07; p=0.021), whereas asthma was negatively associated with HRQoL (β = –3.28; 95% CI 6.94 to 0.37; p=0.001). Regarding treatment satisfaction, 65% of patients were moderately satisfied, with notable concerns regarding medication safety and overall experience. Rural residents reported lower satisfaction than urban residents (β = –0.20; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.05; p=0.007). Patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III had higher satisfaction (β=0.25; 95% CI 0.05 to 0.45; p=0.016). Effective hypertension management was linked to increased satisfaction (β=0.20; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.37; p=0.026), whereas coronary heart disease was associated with lower satisfaction (β = –0.40; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.88; p=0.012).

Conclusions

Among older adults with heart failure in Northwest Ethiopia, 98% reported moderate to low HRQoL. Asthma and polypharmacy negatively affected HRQoL, whereas weight loss was positively associated with HRQoL. An NYHA class III status and well-managed hypertension improved treatment satisfaction, whereas rural residency and coronary heart disease were associated with lower satisfaction. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to enhance outcomes and QoL in this vulnerable population.

Effective coverage of maternal, neonatal and child health services based on District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) data in Ethiopia: a mixed-methods study

Por: Lemma · S. · Getachew · F. · Achamyeleh · H. · Tesfa · A. · Yihun · B. · Kassahun Gelaw · S. · Getachew · T. · Persson · L. A. · Schellenberg · J. · Marchant · T.
Objective

Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using the routine health information system data source, District Health Information System (DHIS2) to measure the effective coverage of selected health service indicators in Ethiopia and to explore stakeholder perceptions of those measures.

Design

We conducted a mixed-methods study. We mapped the availability of data elements in DHIS2 between July 2022 and June 2023 for five indicators (four or more antenatal care visits (ANC4+), skilled birth attendance, postnatal care, sick child care and child nutrition care). We defined effective coverage cascade steps for each indicator, assessed data quality and analysed data using STATA V.17. Finally, qualitative interviews were conducted with 15 key stakeholders, and the data were analysed thematically for reflections on the DHIS2 output.

Setting

The data were captured from all public health facilities of 11 regions and 2 administrative cities in Ethiopia.

Results

There was better availability of data elements for maternal healthcare than for child healthcare. It was possible to estimate the intervention-adjusted coverage of ANC4+ (16% nationally) and the process-quality-adjusted coverage of skilled birth attendance (19% nationally). Postnatal care, sick child care and child nutrition indicators lacked data across multiple cascade steps. The quality of data for effective coverage measurement differed by region. The key informants expressed concerns about the adequacy and appropriateness of DHIS2 data for this analysis. While all acknowledged its potential for decision-making, respondents emphasised the need for standardised methods and data sources to enhance comparability and acceptability of the findings.

Conclusions

The findings underscore the need for system-level improvement of data availability and quality, and adoption of a standardised approach to calculating effective coverage using DHIS2. There was a concern that the findings may not be accepted by policymakers; however, the local level granularity made possible through DHIS2 was appreciated.

Predicting severe stunting and its determinants among under-five in Eastern African Countries: A machine learning algorithms

by Halid Worku Jemil, Sonia Worku Semayneh, Altaseb Beyene Kassaw, Kassahun Dessie Gashu

Introduction

Severe stunting is one of the primary public health challenges in LMIC including Eastern African Countries, which affects millions of children. In addition, it was a major contributor for mortality and related complication of children aged under five. However, there is limited study conducted severe form of stunting by employing Machine learning (ML) in Eastern African Countries. Therefore, our study was demonstrated to predict and identify its major determinants using ML algorithms, furthermore, to improve model explainablity. Our study used Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) and ARM to identify the determinants of severe stunting among under-five.

Methods

cross-sectional study was conducted using DHS data from 2012–2022 in East Africa. 136,074 children were the source populations, and 76,019 children were the study population. Data were analyzed using Python version 3.7 and R version 4.3.3 for data preprocessing, modeling, and statistical analysis. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy and AUC. Furthermore, the SHAP analysis and ARM was used to further explain and interpret the determinants of severe stunting among children under five.

Results

The Random Forest performed the best in this analysis, with an accuracy of 87% and an AUC score of 0.83. The analysis indicated that women’s who do not practicing exclusive breastfeeding (SHAP value = +0.41), being from Burundi (SHAP value = +0.04), children being underweight (SHAP value = +0.25), lived in poor household (SHAP value = +0.40), child gender being male(SHAP value = +0.23), mothers height being short (SHAP value = +0.03), mothers being underweight (SHAP value = +0.18), child size at birth being small (SHAP value = +0.21), women’s being delivered in home(SHAP value = +0.07), mothers education being primary (SHAP value = +0.20), unimproved toilet (SHAP value = +0.06), distance to health facility being a big problem (SHAP value = +0.02), were associated with increase the risk of severe stunting among under five.

Conclusion

The Random Forest was the best-performing model for predicting severe stunting in Eastern African countries. To decrease the effects of severe stunting, integrated interventions should provide support for mothers with lower socioeconomic conditions, strengthen maternal education, empower women to practice exclusive breastfeeding, encourage facility deliveries, increase access for households to sanitary facilities, provide education on personal and environmental hygiene, provide mothers with information on the importance of complementary feeding for children as well as for the mothers, and provide near health facilities for mothers and essential care services.

Sugar-sweetened beverage/snack consumption and its determinants among infant and young children aged 6–23 months in twelve Sub-Saharan African countries: Evidence from 2019–2023 Demographic Health Survey data

by Birtukan Gizachew Ayal, Abebe Kassa Geto, Sefineh Fenta Feleke, Ali Yimer, Atitegeb Abera Kidie, Natnael Amare Tesfa, Esuyawkal Mislu, Molla Hailu, Hassen Ahmed Yesuf

Background

Sugar-sweetened beverages or snacks are limited in nutritional value. Excess consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages or snacks in early childhood is associated with inadequate micronutrient intake, being overweight or obese, and developing chronic diseases later in life. There is scarcity of information specific to sugar-sweetened beverages or snacks consumption prevalence and its determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa Countries. This study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence of sugar-sweetened beverage or snack consumption and its determinants among infants and young children aged 6–23 months.

Methods

A cross-sectional study design was conducted using demographic and health survey data conducted from 2019 to 2023 from twelve Sub-Saharan African countries. A weighted sample of 23,145 children aged 6–23 months was included in the study. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors associated with the dependent variable. The level of statistical significance was declared with a p-value  Results

The pooled prevalence of Sugar-sweetened beverage or snack consumption was 25.40% (95% CI: 24.84% − 25.96%). In multilevel multivariable logistic regression analysis, children aged between 9−11(AOR = 1.95 95% CI: 1.62, 2.35), 12–17(AOR = 2.83; 95% CI: 2.26, 3.54), and 18−23 months (AOR = 3.77;95% CI: 3.07, 4.63), media exposure (AOR = 1.59; 95% CI:1.28, 1.98), children from households with middle (AOR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.73) and rich (AOR = 2.31; 95% CI: 1.87, 2.85) wealth status, post natal checkup (AOR = 1.18; 95%CI:1.05,1.33), maternal ANC visit (AOR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.15, 2.22), and high community media exposure ((AOR = 2.22;95%CI:1.65,5.81) were positively associated significant factors whereas currently breast feeding children (AOR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.59,0.82), older age at first birth (AOR = 0.88,95% CI: 0.81, 0.96), presences of more than one under-5 children in the household (AOR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80, 0.99), mothers don’t perceive distance to health facility as big problem (AOR = 0.86; 95% CI:0.76, 0.98), and children reside in rural (AOR = 0.83;95%CI:0.68,0.95) were negatively associated with sugar sweetened beverage or snack consumption.

Conclusion

In this study, one out of four children consumed sugar-sweetened beverages or snacks. Current age of child, current breastfeeding status of child, media exposure, wealth index, maternal age at first birth, post natal checkup, maternal ANC visit, number of under-five children in the household, distance to health facility, place of residence, and community level media exposure were significant factors with sugar-sweetened beverage or snack consumption. Therefore, it is recommended to raise awareness about the health risks of sugar-sweetened beverage and snack consumption, enforce restrictions on their advertisement, strengthen nutrition-focused counseling within maternal and child health services with special attention for older age children, promote breastfeeding, and give special attention to challenges related to health facility accessibility, and support for young mothers.

Exploring the hospitalisation experience of racialised older adults and caregivers living with dementia: a scoping review protocol

Por: Murad-Kassam · S. · ORourke · H. M. · Hunter · K. · Tate · K. · Salma · J.
Introduction

Racialised older adults living with dementia face various challenges and barriers in receiving culturally sensitive care in hospital settings. Stigma, discrimination and healthcare provider bias toward racialised older adults living with dementia infringe on their right to access quality care services in acute hospital settings and can negatively affect their quality of life. Despite the growing need to integrate culturally sensitive dementia care into acute hospital care, little research has been done in this area. Therefore, the aim of this scoping review is to summarise and map what is known about the hospitalisation experience of racialised older adults with dementia in receiving care and identify research gaps.

Method and analysis

We will use Arksey and O’Malley’s framework and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews checklist to conduct and write the review. The search strategy will use keywords and index terms across selected databases: Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, Medline, PsycINFO and Cumulative Index for Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and hand-searching the reference lists from chosen literature. Grey literature will be searched using Google and the Alzheimer Society websites to find further evidence and literature. Two researchers will screen the titles and abstracts independently by referring to the inclusion criteria. Data from the extracted studies will be reported in tabular and narrative form that answer the scoping review’s questions. Research gaps and recommendations for future research will be identified and summarised. The review’s results will be shared with stakeholders, policymakers, healthcare professionals and community organisations working with the racialised community and dementia care.

Ethics and dissemination

This scoping review does not require ethics approval because it collects data from publicly available resources. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed scientific journals, professional conferences and with community organisations and healthcare providers.

Registration details

This review is registered in the Open Science Framework registration link: osf.io/7rfje

Prevalence, determinants and consequences of delayed treatment intensification among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialised Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia, 2024: a mixed-methods study

Por: Mussie · D. A. · Zerihun · T. E. · Kassaw · A. T. · Muche · E. A.
Objective

To ascertain the clinical impact, prevalence and associated determinants of delayed treatment intensification, defined as delaying the escalation of treatment plans for individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus who fail to attain ideal glycaemic control, at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialised Hospital in Northwest Ethiopia.

Design

A mixed-methods study.

Setting

University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialised Hospital.

Participants

420 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus with poor glycaemic control after the index date were included in this study. A simple random sampling technique was employed to select the required sample size. Data were collected retrospectively and entered into EpiData V.4.6 and exported to Stata V.14.2 for analysis.

Method

Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with delayed treatment intensification. A p value of 0.05 in the multivariable analysis was considered statistically significant. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with eight selected healthcare providers, and thematic analysis was undertaken to identify the underlying barriers to timely treatment intensification.

Primary outcome

Delayed treatment intensification.

Results

The prevalence of delayed treatment intensification was 51.4% (95% CI 46.6% to 56.2%), with a median delay of 14 months (IQR: 7.5–42 months) from the index date. Among those experiencing delayed treatment intensification, 43.1% developed new chronic diabetic complications, including retinopathy (18.1%), neuropathy (14.4%) and nephropathy (6.0%). Other complications (hypertension, stroke, heart failure and diabetic foot ulcer) accounted for 4.64% of the cases. Significant predictors of delayed treatment intensification included longer duration of diabetes (adjusted ORs (AOR) 1.68; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.5), presence of comorbidities (AOR 1.83; 95% CI 1.04 to 3.2) and use of cardioprotective medications (AOR 1.59; 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.43). The qualitative findings revealed additional barriers contributing to delayed treatment intensification, including financial limitations, insufficient patient awareness and non-adherence among patients. Additionally, healthcare provider-related factors, including professional fatigue and knowledge gaps, as well as health institution-related factors such as inadequate healthcare infrastructure.

Conclusions

This study found a high prevalence of delayed treatment intensification (51.4%), associated with comorbidities, longer disease duration, low patient awareness, cardioprotective drug use and barriers related to the system and providers. To address these gaps, priorities should include strengthening patient education, scheduling regular reviews for high-risk patients and improving clinical decision support tools for timely treatment intensification. Enhancing healthcare infrastructure, such as medication supply and diagnostic services, and offering refresher training to reduce provider fatigue, are also crucial for improving the delivery of diabetes care.

Magnitude and histopathological patterns of gestational trophoblastic disease in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Por: Assefa · E. M. · Kassaw · A. B. · Belete · M. · Tareke · A. A. · Alem · A. · Bihonegn · M. D. · Temam · A. J. · Abebe · G. · Mankelkl · G. · Kassaw · A. K. · Abdu · S. M.
Objectives

Gestational trophoblastic disease, characterised by abnormal proliferation of trophoblastic tissue in the placenta during pregnancy, contributes to maternal morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence and histopathological patterns of gestational trophoblastic disease in Africa, where previous studies have reported inconsistent findings.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 guidelines.

Data sources

We searched PubMed, ScienceDirect, Hinari and Google Scholar for studies published between January 2000 and January 2024.

Eligibility criteria

Institution-based observational studies from African countries reporting the prevalence and/or histopathological patterns of gestational trophoblastic disease, using total deliveries as the denominator.

Data extraction and synthesis

Data were extracted into Excel and analysed using Stata V.17. Pooled estimates were calculated using a random-effects model with Knapp-Hartung adjustment. Heterogeneity was assessed with Cochran’s Q test and the I² statistic, and study quality was evaluated using the Joanna Briggs Institute tool.

Results

Of the 2252 studies identified, 33 were included, comprising 2885 gestational trophoblastic disease cases from eight countries. The pooled prevalence of gestational trophoblastic disease in Africa was 4.35 per 1000 deliveries (95% CI 3.26 to 5.45, I2=99.8%). The pooled prevalence of hydatidiform mole, invasive mole and choriocarcinoma in Africa was 3.49 per 1000 deliveries (95% CI 2.45 to 4.52, I2=99.7%), 0.47 per 1000 deliveries (95% CI 0.14 to 0.79, I2=72.2%) and 0.97 per 1000 deliveries (95% CI 0.54 to 1.40, I2=99.1%), respectively.

Conclusion

This review indicated the prevalence of gestational trophoblastic disease was high. Hydatidiform mole was the predominant histopathological pattern observed. Routine antenatal screening is needed for early detection. Further research should be conducted to identify risk factors and evaluate strategies for the prevention and management of the disease.

PROSPERO registration number

CRD42024504268.

High flow oxygen for vaso-occlusive crisis: a multicentre, prospective, randomised, multi-arm, multi-stage clinical trial (OSONE)

Por: Mekontso Dessap · A. · Habibi · A. · Guillaud · C. · Kassasseya · C. · Larrat · C. · Agbakou · M. · Tchoubou · T. · Candille · C. · Carpentier · B. · Landais · M. · Arlet · J.-B. · Fartoukh · M. · Desclaux · A. · Masseau · A. · Oziel · J. · Bouharaoua · S. · Affo · C. · Viglino · D. · Bouk
Introduction

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is due to the mutation of haemoglobin (Hb), from HbA to HbS and characterised by recurrent vaso-occlusive crises (VOC), which can progress to acute chest syndrome (ACS), a leading cause of death in adults with SCD. Hypoxia is a key modifiable factor in the polymerisation of HbS and the pathogenesis of VOC. High-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) delivers humidified gas at high oxygen concentrations and flow rates: the former may reverse sickling (metabolic effect) to accelerate VOC resolution and prevent ACS, while the latter may reduce the risk of ACS by mitigating hypercapnia and generating positive airway pressure that limits hypoventilation and atelectasis (pulmonary effect). The study hypothesises that HFNO is a safe and effective strategy for treating VOC and preventing secondary ACS, and will assess this using a multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) trial design.

Methods and analysis

This is a prospective, multicentre, randomised, open-label controlled trial following an MAMS design with three phases and four arms: one control (low-flow oxygen) and three HFNO intervention arms with varying fraction of inspired oxygen levels (low, intermediate, high). The pilot stage will assess safety and feasibility, using the rate of cardiac and neurological events as the primary endpoint. In the activity stage, arms demonstrating acceptable safety will be compared for efficacy based on the rate of VOC resolution without complications by day 5, allowing selection of the most promising arm. The final efficacy stage will compare the selected HFNO strategy to control, with prevention of secondary ACS by day 14 as the primary endpoint. The study aims to enrol up to 350 VOC episodes in total.

Ethics and dissemination

The study has been granted ethical approval (CPP SUD MEDITERRANEE IV). Following the provision of informed consent, patients will be included in the study. The results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Trial registration number

NCT03976180.

Structural equation analysis on the inter-relationships between optimal antenatal care, health facility delivery and early postnatal care among women in Ethiopia: EDHS 2016

Por: Feleke · S. F. · Tesfa · N. A. · Geto · A. K. · Habtie · T. E. · Ahmed · S. S. · Ashagrie · G. · Kassa · M. A. · Yayeh · B. M. · Emagneneh · T.
Objective

This study employs structural equation modelling to explore the inter-relationships among optimal antenatal care (ANC), health facility delivery and early postnatal care (EPNC) in Ethiopia. By identifying both direct and indirect influencing factors, the study offers valuable insights to support integrated maternal health strategies and guide informed decision-making by policymakers and women alike.

Design

The secondary analysis of the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 was performed to investigate inter-relationships between optimal ANC, health facility delivery and postnatal care (PNC) among women in Ethiopia. Data were analysed with R software V.4.3.2. The study used binary logistic regression to examine differences in optimal ANC, health facility delivery and EPNC, focusing on variables with a p value of 0.1 or less. Selected variables were incorporated into a generalised structural equation model (GSEM) using the LAVAAN package to explore both direct and indirect effects. The GSEM method assessed the impact of exogenous variables on endogenous variables, all binary, using a logistic link and binomial family. Missing data were handled with the multiple imputation by chained equations package, and sampling weights were applied to ensure national and regional representativeness.

Setting and participant

The source population comprised all women of reproductive age (15–49 years) who gave birth in the 5 years preceding the survey. From 16 650 interviewed households (98% response rate), we identified 7590 eligible women with recent births. Finally, we included 2415 women who had attended four or more ANC visits.

Result

Media exposure significantly boosts the likelihood of using ANC (OR=1.8, 95% CI (1.04 to 3.23), p=0.04), health facility delivery (OR=1.7, 95% CI (1.23 to 2.45), p=0.05) and PNC (OR=2.0, 95% CI (1.6 to 4.01), p=0.01). Urban residence and secondary education also enhance ANC (OR=1.2, 95% CI (1.01 to 2.88), p=0.022; OR=1.3, 95% CI (1.20 to 3.01), p=0.018), health facility delivery (OR=1.1, 95% CI (1.01 to 3.24), p=0.035; OR=1.5, 95% CI (1.22 to 3.45), p=0.03) and PNC (OR=1.6, 95% CI (1.01 to 4.32), p=0.03). ANC directly affects health facility delivery (OR=1.4, 95% CI (1.28 to 3.09), p=0.01) and PNC (OR=1.6, 95% CI (1.01 to 3.80), p=0.03). Additionally, women aged 20–34 years and those from male-headed households positively impact health facility delivery (OR=1.5, 95% CI (1.20 to 4.80), p=0.01; OR=1.3, 95% CI (1.07 to 3.45), p=0.014) and PNC (OR=1.4, 95% CI (1.10 to 2.90), p=0.01; OR=1.2, 95% CI (1.07 to 3.08), p=0.025).

Conclusions

Optimal ANC is vital for encouraging health facility delivery and EPNC. To enhance maternal and neonatal health, policies should integrate these services. Key predictors include being aged 20–34, having secondary and higher education, media exposure, male-headed households and living in urban areas. Improving education and media exposure can boost maternal healthcare service use.

Incidence and predictors of delirium in patients admitted to intensive care unit at comprehensive specialised hospitals in Amhara region, northwest Ethiopia: a multicentre prospective observational study

Por: Asmare · T. B. · Wubet · H. B. · Gobezie · N. Z. · Deress · G. M. · Belete · K. G. · Tadesse · M. A. · Abuhay · A. G. · Demissie · B. · Melesew · A. A. · Afework · W. A. · Alle · Y. F. · Demite · D. G. · Teshome · D. · Mossie · K. D. · Kassa · B. D. · Gedefaw · G. D.
Objective

To assess the incidence of delirium and its predictors among adult patients admitted to the intensive care units of comprehensive specialised hospitals in the Amhara region of northwest Ethiopia from 18 October 2024 to 20 February 2025.

Design

A multicentre prospective observational study was conducted.

Setting

Four comprehensive specialised hospitals in the Amhara region of northwest Ethiopia, from 18 October 2024 to 20 February 2025.

Participants

A total of 351 patients were included in the final analysis during the study period.

Outcome measures

The primary outcome measure of this study was the incidence of delirium. Additionally, the study investigated the factors associated with delirium incidence among adult patients admitted to intensive care units.

Results

The incidence of delirium among adult patients in intensive care units was 42.17% (95% CI: 37.08 to 47.42). Pain (adjusted HR (AHR) = 4.74; 95% CI: 2.38 to 9.44), mechanical ventilation (AHR = 2.96; 95% CI: 1.56 to 5.63), age 65 years or older (AHR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.48 to 3.21) and agitation (Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS) ≥1) (AHR = 3.26; 95% CI: 2.09 to 5.09) were statistically significant factors associated with delirium.

Conclusion and recommendation

In the present study, more than one-third of patients developed delirium. Pain, mechanical ventilation, age 65 or older and agitation (RASS≥1) were significantly associated with delirium occurrence. To reduce the incidence of delirium, the current study recommends treating or preventing pain and agitation. Additionally, special attention should be given to patients receiving mechanical ventilation and those aged 65 or older during care.

Forecasting birth trends in Ethiopia using time-series and machine-learning models: a secondary data analysis of EDHS surveys (2000-2019)

Por: Alemayehu · M. A. · Ejigu · A. G. · Mekonen · H. · Teym · A. · Temesegen · A. · Bayeh · G. M. · Yeshiwas · A. G. · Anteneh · R. M. · Atikilit · G. · Shimels · T. · Yenew · C. · Ayele · W. M. · Ahmed · A. F. · Kassa · A. A. · Tsega · T. D. · Tsega · S. S. · Mekonnen · B. A. · Malkamu · B.
Objective

Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, faces significant demographic transitions, with fertility rates playing a central role in shaping economic and healthcare policies. Family planning programmes face challenges due to funding limitations. The recent suspension of the US Agency for International Development funding exacerbates these issues, highlighting the need for accurate birth forecasting to guide policy and resource allocation. This study applied time-series and advanced machine-learning models to forecast future birth trends in Ethiopia.

Design

Secondary data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey from 2000 to 2019 were used. After data preprocessing steps, including data conversion, filtering, aggregation and transformation, stationarity was checked using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Time-series decomposition was then performed, followed by time-series splitting. Seven forecasting models, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Prophet, Generalised Linear Models with Elastic Net Regularisation (GLMNET), Random Forest and Prophet-XGBoost, were built and compared. The models’ performance was evaluated using key metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R-squared value.

Results

GLMNET emerged as the best model, explaining 77% of the variance with an RMSE of 119.01. Prophet-XGBoost performed reasonably well but struggled to capture the full complexity of the data, with a lower R-squared value of 0.32 and an RMSE of 146.87. Forecasts were made for both average monthly births and average births per woman over a 10-year horizon (2025–2034). The forecast for average monthly births indicated a gradual decline over the projection period. Meanwhile, the average births per woman showed an increasing trend but fluctuated over time, influenced by demographic shifts such as changes in fertility preferences, age structure and migration patterns.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining time-series models and machine learning, with GLMNET and Prophet XGBoost emerging as the most effective. While average monthly births are expected to decline due to demographic transitions and migration, the average births per woman will remain high, reflecting persistent fertility preferences within certain subpopulations. These findings underscore the need for policies addressing both population trends and sociocultural factors.

Incidence, progression and predictors of chronic kidney disease among adult HIV/AIDS patients on antiretroviral treatment in comprehensive specialised hospitals in the Amhara Region, Ethiopia, 2022: a multi-centre retrospective follow-up study

Por: Abate · M. D. · Kassa · M. A. · Yilak · G. · Habtie · T. E. · Temesgen · D. · Mulu · B. · Feleke · S. F. · Baylie · A. · Bizuayehu · M. A.
Objective

To assess the incidence, progression and predictors of chronic kidney disease among adult patients living with HIV/AIDS who are receiving antiretroviral therapy.

Design

An institution-based, multicentre retrospective follow-up study was conducted among a randomly selected sample of 535 adult patients. Data were entered into Epi Data version 4.6.0 and analysed using STATA version 14.0. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was fitted to identify independent predictors of chronic kidney disease incidence. Variables with p

Setting and participants

The study was conducted at comprehensive specialised hospitals in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. Adult patients with HIV/AIDS receiving follow-up antiretroviral therapy between 1 April 2012 and 31 September 2022 were the cohort participants.

Results

Of the 528 adult patients included in the final analysis, 15 (2.84%) developed chronic kidney disease during the follow-up period, resulting in an overall incidence rate of 4.1 per 1000 person-years of observation. Significant predictors of chronic kidney disease included baseline age (adjusted HR (AHR)=1.053; 95% CI, 1.001 to 1.108), serum creatinine (AHR=1.698; 95% CI, 1.302 to 2.215), blood urea nitrogen (AHR=1.031; 95% CI, 1.001 to 1.061) and baseline viral load ≥1000 copies/mL (AHR=3.464; 95% CI, 1.104 to 10.871).

Conclusion

The incidence of chronic kidney disease among adult patients with HIV was clinically significant. Older age, baseline viral load ≥1000 and high blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels were significant predictors of higher risk. Proactive measures, such as closer kidney monitoring, targeted care for older patients and ensuring optimal viral suppression with effective antiretroviral therapy, can delay or prevent the development of chronic kidney disease.

❌