To determine the prevalence of potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP), potentially inappropriate medication (PIM), potential prescription omission (PPO), potentially harmful drug–drug interactions (PDDI) and identify associated factors among older Ethiopians.

Systematic review and meta-analysis

We searched PubMed, HINARI, Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify eligible studies published up to 31 October 2025.

Observational studies reported the prevalence of PIP, PIM, PPO and PDDI among older adults from any healthcare settings were screened.

Two independent reviewers selected studies, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. The quality and risk of bias of the studies were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and Hoy risk of bias tool, respectively, while the certainty of evidence of outcomes was assessed using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation based on Cochrane recommendations. We used a random-effects model for analyses to estimate the pooled prevalence and associated factors. All data analyses were done using Stata V.17 software.

The national prevalence of PIP, PIM, PPO and PDDI was estimated as main outcomes. Variations were estimated based on regions, age groups, outcome evaluation tool, disease type and healthcare setting.

The review included 25 studies (n=5662 participants) for PIP or PIM, 14 studies (n=2706 participants) for PDDI and 6 studies (n=1342 participants) for PPO. The pooled prevalence estimate was 41% (95% CI 33% to 48%), I²=96.87% for PIP, 37% (95% CI 31% to 44%), I²=96.33% for PIM, 55% (95% CI 36% to 73%), I²=99.00% for PDDI and 14% (95% CI 6% to 24%), I²=95.07% for PPO. The majority of the studies have very good quality (very good=13, good=1, satisfactory=11 for PIP and PIM; very good=11, satisfactory=3 for PDDI; very good=6 for PPO) and low risk of bias (low risk=18, moderate risk=7 for PIP and PIM; low risk=12, moderate risk=2 for PDDI and low risk=6 for PPO), while all studies for each outcome have low certainty of evidence. Subgroup analyses revealed significant regional and contextual variations. Polypharmacy was significantly associated with PIP (OR=3.72, 95% CI 2.53 to 5.46, p2=69.56%), PIM (OR=4.20, 95% CI 2.91 to 6.06, p2=57.83%) and PDDI (OR=4.51, 95% CI 3.05 to 6.69, p2=0.00%), while hypertension (OR=2.46, 95% CI 1.38 to 4.36, p2=0.00%) was associated with PIP.

This review found a high prevalence of PIP, PIM, PDDI and PPO among older adults in Ethiopia, with notable heterogeneity across regions. Polypharmacy was associated with PIP, PIM and PDDI, while hypertension showed association with PIP. Despite generally good study quality, the certainty of evidence was low for the included studies due to the cross-sectional design nature, with high heterogeneity. Therefore, these findings should be interpreted cautiously. This study indicates a high burden of inappropriate medication prescribing and its associated factors, underscoring the importance of further robust studies to clarify prescribing practices and associated factors.

CRD42024556744.

To assess the level of knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of nurses regarding geriatric nursing care, and to identify factors associated with these outcomes among nurses working in specialised hospitals in North-West Ethiopia.

Facility-based, mixed-methods study, consisting of a cross-sectional survey and qualitative interviews.

Specialised hospitals in the Gojjam area, North-West Ethiopia. The study was conducted from 25 October to 30 November 2024.

For the survey component, 424 nurses were selected using simple random sampling. Twelve nurses were purposively selected for the qualitative in-depth interviews.

Knowledge and attitudes towards geriatric nursing care were measured using the Knowledge of Participants Questionnaire and the Older People in Acute Care Survey. Logistic regression identified factors associated with knowledge and attitudes. Qualitative data were analysed thematically.

44.6% (95% CI 39.8% to 49.4%) of nurses had good knowledge and 45.3% (95% CI 40.5% to 50.2%) had a favourable attitude towards geriatric nursing care. Knowledge was significantly associated with being female (AOR 1.61; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.43), holding a diploma (AOR 0.40; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.93), holding a degree (AOR 0.32; 95% CI 0.16 to 0.65), having 6–10 years of experience (AOR 0.48; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.74) and room adequacy (AOR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.95). Attitude was associated with 6–10 years of work experience (AOR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43 to 0.99) and working in academic hospitals (AOR 0.34; 95% CI 0.21 to 0.53). Qualitative findings highlighted gaps in training, workload challenges and environmental limitations.

Less than half of nurses had good knowledge or favourable attitudes towards geriatric nursing care. Gender, educational level, experience and room adequacy were associated with knowledge, while experience and hospital type were associated with differing attitudes. Integrating geriatric nursing into the curriculum and allocating adequate resources are recommended.

Immunisation is one of the most valuable, impactful and cost-effective public health interventions which delivers positive health, social and economic benefits. Globally, 4 million deaths worldwide are prevented by childhood vaccination every year. In Ethiopia, despite huge progress being made, the routine immunisation coverage has never reached the targeted figures and planned goals. Pastoralist communities are often disproportionately under-vaccinated, and there is often a confluence of interrelated factors that drive this outcome. This study enables us to identify factors affecting immunisation service utilisation in the pastoralist communities of Ethiopia, which helps to design effective and context-specific interventions.

This study aims to explore the behavioural and social drivers (BeSDs) of routine immunisation among the communities with high numbers of zero-dose and under-immunised children in Afar, Somali and Gambella regions of Ethiopia.

A qualitative exploratory study was conducted in three selected regions of Ethiopia (Gambella, Somali and Afar) from 9 November 2023 to 30 December 2023. Purposive sampling was used. A total of 33 interviews were conducted in the three regions. Sample size was determined based on idea saturation. Data was collected using interview guides. The interview guide was developed after reviewing relevant literature, desk review and using the journey to health and immunisation framework. A separate interview guide was developed for the journey mapping exercise, in-depth interview, healthcare workers discussion guide, focus group discussion and observation. Data was analysed thematically.

Behavioural (lack of awareness, lack of reminder/forgetting, misperception about vaccines, negative previous experience, lost card and fear of post-vaccination adverse events).

Structural (language barrier, long distance from home to facility, high cost of transportation, long waiting time, limited training of healthcare professionals and incentives, inconvenient service hours, shortage of health professionals, disrespect by the healthcare provider), Socio-cultural (competing priorities, low community engagement, lack of decision-making autonomy, limited husband involvement, workload, rural residence and larger family size were the commonly mentioned barriers to routine immunisation uptake. On the other hand, structural (house to house visit by health extension workers, counselling about adverse events, presence of outreach service, affordability (free of charge)), behavioural and socio-cultural (knowledge of adverse event management, and respect from community) were enablers to routine immunisation service uptake in pastoralist communities.

The study found several individual and contextual factors affecting routine immunisation uptake in pastoralist communities. Context-specific and tailored interventions which address zero dose drivers should be designed so as to enhance vaccine uptake. The findings suggested the need to design context-specific interventions to address the aforementioned barriers to immunisation.

Patients who survive admission to intensive care unit (ICU) for critical illness are at high risk of developing muscle atrophy and weakness, commonly diagnosed as ICU-acquired weakness (ICUAW). The development of ICUAW is closely linked to long-term symptoms and impairments known as post-intensive care syndrome (PICS). Despite heightened recognition of impairments, there is limited research supporting effective interventions to improve muscle and physical outcomes after hospital discharge. Prior to developing and testing interventions for ICU survivors, it is imperative to understand the trajectory of muscle and physical function recovery following an ICU stay. The purpose of this study is to longitudinally investigate skeletal muscle health and physical function outcomes after ICU admission.

This protocol describes a single site, prospective, observational study in adult patients who have survived a critical illness (ie, sepsis or acute respiratory failure). Patients will participate in a battery of testing including primary outcomes: muscle power and physical function; and secondary outcomes: muscle strength, muscle size, endurance and physical activity (by accelerometry) at hospital discharge and 3, 6, and 12 months post-discharge. A subset of patients will participate in muscle biopsy and venipuncture. To examine if the trajectory of recovery predicts primary outcomes, we will perform multivariate linear regression models in 150 evaluable patients. To examine differences in molecular and cellular outcomes in plasma and muscle tissue, a control group of community-dwelling adults without history of an ICU stay will be enrolled as a comparator group. Enrolment started on 18 October 2022 with an estimated completion date of 1 August 2027.

This protocol was approved by the University of Kentucky Office of Research Integrity Medical Internal Review Board (# 77407), with patients providing informed written consent. We anticipate our findings to establish recovery trajectories, improving the classification of patients who experience sustained physical disability. Improved identification of recovery trajectories of muscle and physical function enables future studies to employ an individually targeted rehabilitation approach, that is, precision medicine, with the goal of improving patient outcomes. The cellular findings will support the development of novel interventions specifically designed for detecting underlying mechanisms. We intend to disseminate findings to patients, healthcare professionals, the public and other relevant groups via conference presentations and manuscripts without publication restrictions.

NCT05537298.

To develop and validate a polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) case definition using administrative health data sources.

A validation study.

Secondary care centre outpatient gynaecology clinic in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

3951 electronic health records of women aged 18–45 years who presented to a gynaecology clinic in Calgary, Canada, between January 2014 and December 2019 were reviewed. We identified 180 patients with PCOS using the Rotterdam criteria. Participants were excluded if they were biologically male, pregnant at the time of the consultation, did not meet the date criteria or if their consultation note was missing. The chart data were connected to the Practitioner Claims and the Discharge Abstract Database by personal health number.

Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 68 case definitions for PCOS were estimated. Case definition performance was graded.

Of the 68 case definitions tested, none had high validity. The best performing case definitions were: (1) ≥3 instances of International Classification of Diseases-9 code 256.4 (polycystic ovaries) with exclusion codes (sensitivity 23.89%, specificity 99.59%, PPV 74.14%, NPV 96.35%) and (2) 626.X (irregular menstruation), 704.1 (hirsutism) and ≥3 instances of code 256.4 with exclusion codes (sensitivity 2.78%, specificity 99.97%, PPV 83.33%, NPV 95.40%).

We identified several case definitions for PCOS of moderate validity with high PPV (>70%) for case ascertainment in PCOS research in jurisdictions with similar administrative health data. These case definitions are limited by low sensitivity, which should be considered when interpreting research findings.

This study aimed to assess the prevalence of eye care service utilisation and associated factors among healthcare professionals in Gondar city, northwest Ethiopia.

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted using a systematic random sampling method.

The study was conducted at public healthcare facilities in Gondar city, orthwest Ethiopia.

The study included 607 healthcare professionals who worked in public healthcare facilities in Gondar ity.

Data were collected using personal interview using a pretested and structured questionnaire.

A total of 607 study participants took part in this study with a response rate of 91.97%. The median age of the participants was 32 years (IQR 30–36; range ±6). The proportion of eye care services utilisation in this study was 27.68% (95% CI 24.11% to 31.25%). Being masters or higher degree educational status (adjusted OR (AOR)=4.81, 95% CI: 2.01, 11.46), having more than ten years of working experience in healthcare (AOR3.01, 95% CI: 1.51 to 5.99), being affiliated with general hospital (AOR 4.02, 95% CI 1.51 to 10.68) and specialised hospital (AOR 3.02, 95% CI 1.55 to 5.89), obtaining prior eye healthcare training (AOR 1.90, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.00) and having a higher monthly household income (AOR 3.59, 95% CI 1.89 to 6.81) were positively associated with eye care service utilisation.

This study revealed that the proportion of eye care service utilisation among study participants was low. Holding a master or higher degree, more than 10 years of working experience in healthcare, affiliation with general or specialised healthcare facility, obtaining prior eye healthcare training and higher monthly household income were significantly associated with a good level of eye care service utilisation.

Functional constipation (FC) is prevalent among children and often persists despite standard pharmacological treatment with oral laxatives. Many parents turn to complementary therapies, including acupuncture, which has been shown to relieve symptoms in adults with FC. However, studies in children with FC are scarce and have important limitations. This study will evaluate the feasibility, safety and potential efficacy of acupuncture for children with FC.

Prospective, non-randomised, open-label pilot study in children with FC (6–18 years). Participants will undergo eight acupuncture sessions over 10 weeks. Concurrent pharmacological treatment with polyethylene glycol (≥0.2 g/kg/day) will continue as initiated prior to enrolment. The primary endpoint is feasibility, defined by an attrition rate of ≥70%. Secondary feasibility endpoints include consent rate, patient/parent satisfaction and personnel requirements. Safety will be assessed by systematic monitoring of adverse events. Efficacy endpoints include treatment success, defined as no longer meeting the Rome IV criteria for FC at the end of the intervention period, as well as defecation frequency, stool consistency, painful defecation, faecal incontinence frequency, abdominal pain, medication use and quality of life, based on a previously published core outcome set.

Ethical approval was provided by the Medical Ethics Committee of Amsterdam UMC (Netherlands; NL87083.018.24). Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented to scientific and consumer audiences.

NCT06836362 and NL-OMON57236.

To pilot a culturally tailored, peer-led, co-produced asset-based intervention workshop to encourage early diagnosis of prostate cancer for Black men.

Mixed-methods pilot study.

Community centres in the North-East of England and Scotland.

The intervention was delivered in November 2023 with Black African and Caribbean men (n=21), and again in February 2024 (n=41). Participants were highly educated and aged between 42 and 63 years. The intervention was qualitatively evaluated with 40 of the intervention participants.

Underpinned by the Integrated Screening Action Model (I-SAM), we co-produced a culturally tailored, peer-led 2-hour workshop consisting of multiple components, including small group discussions about barriers to accessing prostate cancer care, general practitioner (GP) health education, activities to facilitate effective communication with the GP and reception staff and videos with testimonials from survivors, women and religious leaders.

Knowledge, attitudes and intention to engage in prostate cancer testing were examined through a pre- and post-survey design. Intervention acceptability was qualitatively explored through focus groups.

Participants (n=41) reported that the workshop increased their confidence in engaging with healthcare providers to discuss prostate cancer testing (I-SAM component: psychological capability). Knowledge (I-SAM component: psychological capability: Z=4.939, p

Asset-based strategies, focusing on community strengths, including faith-based health promotion, can promote health behaviours in a culturally and spiritually meaningful way. The PROCAN-B intervention effectively targeted components within the I-SAM and shows potential to increase prostate cancer awareness and build confidence to engage in behaviours conducive to early diagnosis. However, the sample was small, and more robust effectiveness testing is needed.

Gestational trophoblastic disease, characterised by abnormal proliferation of trophoblastic tissue in the placenta during pregnancy, contributes to maternal morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence and histopathological patterns of gestational trophoblastic disease in Africa, where previous studies have reported inconsistent findings.

Systematic review and meta-analysis adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 guidelines.

We searched PubMed, ScienceDirect, Hinari and Google Scholar for studies published between January 2000 and January 2024.

Institution-based observational studies from African countries reporting the prevalence and/or histopathological patterns of gestational trophoblastic disease, using total deliveries as the denominator.

Data were extracted into Excel and analysed using Stata V.17. Pooled estimates were calculated using a random-effects model with Knapp-Hartung adjustment. Heterogeneity was assessed with Cochran’s Q test and the I² statistic, and study quality was evaluated using the Joanna Briggs Institute tool.

Of the 2252 studies identified, 33 were included, comprising 2885 gestational trophoblastic disease cases from eight countries. The pooled prevalence of gestational trophoblastic disease in Africa was 4.35 per 1000 deliveries (95% CI 3.26 to 5.45, I²=99.8%). The pooled prevalence of hydatidiform mole, invasive mole and choriocarcinoma in Africa was 3.49 per 1000 deliveries (95% CI 2.45 to 4.52, I²=99.7%), 0.47 per 1000 deliveries (95% CI 0.14 to 0.79, I²=72.2%) and 0.97 per 1000 deliveries (95% CI 0.54 to 1.40, I²=99.1%), respectively.

This review indicated the prevalence of gestational trophoblastic disease was high. Hydatidiform mole was the predominant histopathological pattern observed. Routine antenatal screening is needed for early detection. Further research should be conducted to identify risk factors and evaluate strategies for the prevention and management of the disease.

CRD42024504268.

This study aims to assess parents’ knowledge and attitude towards the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of their daughters and the associated factors in Debre Tabor town, northwest Ethiopia.

A community-based cross-sectional study.

Debre Tabor town, Northwest Ethiopia.

A total of 702 participants were included in the study, with a response rate of 98.2%. Three out of the six kebeles in the town were randomly selected, and participants within the selected kebeles were recruited through a cluster sampling technique. An interviewer-administered structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 15 December 2021 to 15 February 2022.

Parents’ level of knowledge and attitude towards the HPV vaccination of their daughters, and the associated factors.

In the study, parents’ knowledge and attitude towards HPV vaccination were found to be 46.4% (95% CI 42.7% to 50.1%) and 61.5% (95% CI 58.0% to 65.2%), respectively. Parents with a higher level of education (adjusted OR (AOR)=2.27; 95% CI 1.39 to 3.69), media exposure (AOR=3.36; 95% CI 1.21 to 9.33) and a good attitude towards the HPV vaccine (AOR=8.81; 95% CI 5.78 to 13.44) were significantly associated factors that affect parents’ level of knowledge. Positive subjective norms (AOR=1.53; 95% CI 1.01 to 2.31) and perceived behavioural control towards the HPV vaccine (AOR=3.48; 95% CI 2.37 to 5.10) had statistically significant associations with parents’ attitude.

In this study, more than half of parents had poor knowledge of the HPV and its vaccination, while the majority of the participants showed a favourable attitude to the vaccine. Educational attainment, media exposure and a positive attitude were significantly associated with parental knowledge, and parents’ attitude was positively influenced by subjective norms and perceived behavioural control. This suggests a need to increase the parents’ level of awareness through educational interventions, particularly via media and community engagement. To improve the acceptance and uptake of the HPV vaccination, it is important to address negative attitudes and common misconceptions among parents on the safety, efficacy and necessity of the vaccine for their daughters.

Shift work sleep disorder is a circadian rhythm sleep-wake disorder characterised by insomnia and/or excessive sleepiness associated with a shift work schedule that overlaps with habitual sleep time. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of shift work sleep disorders and associated factors among healthcare professionals working at Jimma University Medical Center, Southwest Ethiopia.

Institutional-based cross-sectional study.

Tertiary hospital in Southwest Ethiopia.

The data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire from health professionals recruited using a simple random sampling technique.

Shift work-sleep disorder was assessed by the International Classification of Sleep Disorders, the Insomnia Severity Index and/or the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the association between the predictor and the outcome variable. The ORs and 95% CIs were determined. Variables with a p value

370 participants were involved in the study, yielding a response rate of 97.6%. The prevalence of shift work sleep disorder was 35.9% (n=133). Working in three shifts (Adjusted OR (AOR) 3.25, 95% CI=1.92 to 5.57), more than 11-night shifts per month (AOR 2.83, 95% CI=1.49 to 5.37), absence of nap (AOR 2, 95% CI=1.14 to 3.52), stress (AOR 4.4, 95% CI=2.36 to 8.2), fatigue (AOR 2.7, 95% CI=1.26 to 3.73), alcohol (AOR 3.9, 95% CI=1.79 to 8.47) and khat (AOR 4.40, 95% CI=1.76 to 10.96) use in the last 3 months was significantly associated with shift work sleep disorder.

One in three healthcare professionals working at Jimma University Medical Center had a sleep disorder related to shift work. Working in three shifts per day, having more than 11-night shifts per month, lack of naps, presence of stress, fatigue and substance use were found to be associated with shift work sleep disorder.

This study aimed to compare the nutritional status and dietary intake between khat chewer and non-chewer women of reproductive age in Halaba Zone, South Ethiopia.

A comparative cross-sectional study was conducted.

The study was conducted in Halaba Zone, South Ethiopia.

A total of 792 (396 khat chewers and 396 non-chewers) women of reproductive age were selected by a simple random sampling technique from 20 June 2023 to 26 August 2023.

Dietary intake was assessed by a single 24-hour recall method. The nutrient adequacy ratio and mean adequacy ratio were applied to estimate the adequacy of micronutrients. Standing height was measured using a wall-mounted stadiometer to the nearest 0.1 cm, and weight of the women was measured to the nearest 0.1 kg on a battery-powered digital scale (Seca Gmbh & Co. KG, Germany). A linear regression model was fitted to determine the relationship between nutritional status and khat chewing. Binary logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the odds of nutrient intake inadequacy among the two study groups. A p value of

Women who chewed khat had a higher prevalence of underweight (36.6%) than those who did not (9.4%). The mean (SD) body mass index for khat chewer women was 48.66±5.39 kg, while that of non-chewer women was 55.29±6.75 kg. Women who chewed khat were significantly more likely to be underweight than those who had never chewed khat (β = –1.91, 95% CI –2.30 to –1.53; p12 (AOR=2.79 (95% CI 1.79 to 4.36), p

Women who chewed khat were significantly more likely to be underweight compared with those who had never chewed khat. Khat chewers were more likely than non-chewers to have inadequate carbohydrate, protein, thiamine, riboflavin, niacin, vitamin B₁₂, zinc and calcium intake. Public health interventions aimed at improving the nutritional status of women of reproductive age should develop strategies to address the spread of khat-chewing habits.

To seek consensus among global experts on concepts, measures and approaches to guide national and global action to address HIV-related stigma and formulate a call to action. This outlines priorities to unite actors in more effectively responding to and resourcing efforts to address HIV-related stigma.

An adapted Delphi consensus-building process using two rounds of online questionnaires.

Online questionnaires sent to a global expert panel.

50 global experts on HIV-related stigma and discrimination representing sectors including civil society, people living with HIV and key populations, research and academia, clinical practice, law, non-profit organisations, the United Nations, and policy and donor organisations.

The panel reached consensus on 55 points relating to the 12 broad themes extracted from the evidence base. These comprised the importance of addressing HIV-related stigma at scale; HIV-related stigma terms and definitions; Frameworks; Programming and approaches; Community leadership in HIV-related stigma-reduction implementation; Intersectional stigma and discrimination; Stigma and discrimination measures and assessment scales; Monitoring and evaluation; Stakeholder and community participation in monitoring and evaluation; Knowledge gaps and research needs; Funding and Commitment calls. From these, a consensus statement and call to action were formulated on priorities for strong political and financial commitments by all countries to reduce and mitigate HIV-related stigma and achieve global HIV targets adopted in 2021.

This study illustrated that global experts across sectors consider that action is needed to support the three critical enablers of the HIV response—society, systems and services—to ensure that HIV services are non-discriminatory and person-centred. The importance of attention and action to reduce stigma is critical in the current geopolitical and funding crisis affecting HIV and global health.

Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, faces significant demographic transitions, with fertility rates playing a central role in shaping economic and healthcare policies. Family planning programmes face challenges due to funding limitations. The recent suspension of the US Agency for International Development funding exacerbates these issues, highlighting the need for accurate birth forecasting to guide policy and resource allocation. This study applied time-series and advanced machine-learning models to forecast future birth trends in Ethiopia.

Secondary data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey from 2000 to 2019 were used. After data preprocessing steps, including data conversion, filtering, aggregation and transformation, stationarity was checked using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Time-series decomposition was then performed, followed by time-series splitting. Seven forecasting models, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Prophet, Generalised Linear Models with Elastic Net Regularisation (GLMNET), Random Forest and Prophet-XGBoost, were built and compared. The models’ performance was evaluated using key metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R-squared value.

GLMNET emerged as the best model, explaining 77% of the variance with an RMSE of 119.01. Prophet-XGBoost performed reasonably well but struggled to capture the full complexity of the data, with a lower R-squared value of 0.32 and an RMSE of 146.87. Forecasts were made for both average monthly births and average births per woman over a 10-year horizon (2025–2034). The forecast for average monthly births indicated a gradual decline over the projection period. Meanwhile, the average births per woman showed an increasing trend but fluctuated over time, influenced by demographic shifts such as changes in fertility preferences, age structure and migration patterns.

This study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining time-series models and machine learning, with GLMNET and Prophet XGBoost emerging as the most effective. While average monthly births are expected to decline due to demographic transitions and migration, the average births per woman will remain high, reflecting persistent fertility preferences within certain subpopulations. These findings underscore the need for policies addressing both population trends and sociocultural factors.