Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death, warranting effective management and prevention measures. Risk prediction tools are indispensable for directing primary and secondary prevention strategies for CVD and are critical for estimating CVD risk. Machine learning (ML) methodologies have experienced significant advancements across numerous practical domains in recent years. Several ML and statistical models predicting CVD time-to-event outcomes have been developed. However, it is not known as to which of the two model types—ML and statistical models—have higher discrimination and calibration in this regard. Hence, this planned work aims to systematically review studies that compare ML with statistical methods in terms of their predictive abilities in the case of time-to-event data with censoring.

Original research articles published as prognostic prediction studies, which involved the development and/or validation of a prognostic model, within a peer-reviewed journal, using cohort or experimental design with at least a 12-month follow-up period will be systematically reviewed. The review process will adhere to the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies checklist.

Ethical approval is not required for this review, as it will exclusively use data from published studies. The findings of this study will be published in an open-access journal and disseminated at scientific conferences.

CRD42023484178.

This study aims to evaluate the prevalence and associated factors of lower back pain (LBP) among farmers, rickshaw pullers and office workers in Bangladesh, while also investigating potential contributors within these occupational groups.

This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the prevalence of LBP, associated factors and management procedures among farmers, rickshaw pullers and office workers in Bangladesh through face-to-face interviews.

The study was conducted in different parts of the Bogura district in Bangladesh.

A total of 396 participants were included in the final analysis, all the participants were men and adult in age.

Data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire based on previous research. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify significant associations.

The prevalence of LBP was found to be 42.7% among the participants. Farmers and rickshaw pullers had approximately four-times and three-times higher odds of experiencing LBP compared with office workers. Other significant factors associated with LBP included living in a nuclear family, having a normal body weight, lacking professional training, having a chronic disease, having a family history of LBP and experiencing numbness in the legs or feet. The majority of respondents sought medical attention and took medication for their LBP.

The study underscores occupational differences in LBP prevalence, emphasising the necessity for tailored interventions and occupational health policies. Identifying specific risk factors and management practices in these professions can aid in developing effective prevention strategies and enhancing healthcare services.

Community health workers are essential to front-line health outreach throughout low-income and middle-income countries, including programming for early childhood immunisation. Understanding how community health workers are engaged for successful early childhood vaccination among countries who showed success in immunisation coverage would support evidence-based policy guidance across contexts.

We employed a multiple case study design using qualitative research methods.

We conducted research in Nepal, Senegal and Zambia.

We conducted 207 interviews and 71 focus group discussions with 678 participants at the national, regional, district, health facility and community levels of the health systems of Nepal, Senegal and Zambia, from October 2019 to April 2021. We used thematic analysis to investigate contributing factors of community health worker programming that supported early childhood immunisation within each country and across contexts.

Implementation of vaccination programming relied principally on the (1) organisation, (2) motivation and (3) trust of community health workers. Organisation was accomplished by expanding cadres of community health workers to carry out their roles and responsibilities related to vaccination. Motivation was supported by intrinsic and extrinsic incentives. Trust was expressed by communities due to community health worker respect and value placed on their work.

Improvements in immunisation coverage was facilitated by community health worker organisation, motivation and trust. With the continued projection of health worker shortages, especially in low-income countries, community health workers bridged the equity gap in access to vaccination services by enabling wider reach to underserved populations. Although improvements in vaccination programming were seen in all three countries—including government commitment to addressing human resource deficits, training and remuneration; workload, inconsistency in compensation, training duration and scope, and supervision remain major challenges to immunisation programming. Health decision-makers should consider organisation, motivation and trust of community health workers to improve the implementation of immunisation programming.

In recent decades, all-cause mortality has increased among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD), influenced by factors such as aetiology, standards of care and access to kidney replacement therapies (dialysis and transplantation). The recent COVID-19 pandemic also affected mortality over the past few years. Here, we outline the protocol for a systematic review to investigate global temporal trends in all-cause mortality among patients with CKD at any stage from 1990 to current. We also aim to assess temporal trends in the mortality rate associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

We will conduct a systematic review of studies reporting mortality for patients with CKD following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We will search electronic databases, national and multiregional kidney registries and grey literature to identify observational studies that reported on mortality associated with any cause for patients with CKD of all ages with any stage of the disease. We will collect data between April and August 2023 to include all studies published from 1990 to August 2023. There will be no language restriction, and clinical trials will be excluded. Primary outcome will be temporal trends in CKD-related mortality. Secondary outcomes include assessing mortality differences before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, exploring causes of death and examining trends across CKD stages, country classifications, income levels and demographics.

A systematic review will analyse existing data from previously published studies and have no direct involvement with patient data. Thus, ethical approval is not required. Our findings will be published in an open-access peer-reviewed journal and presented at scientific conferences.

CRD42023416084.

Menopause is a significant milestone for women, marking the permanent cessation of menstruation after 12 months of amenorrhoea. The onset of menopause is influenced by various factors, including genetics, lifestyle and...

The Health & Her app provides menopausal women with a means of monitoring their symptoms, symptom triggers and menstrual periods, and enables them to engage in a variety of digital activities designed to promote well-being. This study aimed to examine whether sustained weekly engagement with the app is associated with improvements in menopausal symptoms.

A pre–post longitudinal cohort study.

Analysed data collected from Health & Her app users.

1900 women who provided symptom data via the app across a 2-month period.

Symptom changes from baseline to 2 months was the outcome measure. A linear mixed effects model explored whether levels of weekly app engagement influenced symptom changes. Secondary analyses explored whether app-usage factors such as total number of days spent logging symptoms, reporting triggers, reporting menstrual periods and using in-app activities were independently predictive of symptom changes from baseline. Covariates included hormone replacement therapy use, hormonal contraceptive use, present comorbidities, age and dietary supplement use.

Findings demonstrated that greater engagement with the Health & Her app for 2 months was associated with greater reductions in symptoms over time. Daily use of in-app activities and logging symptoms and menstrual periods were each independently associated with symptom reductions.

This study demonstrated that greater weekly engagement with the app was associated with greater reductions in symptoms. It is recommended that women be made aware of menopause-specific apps, such as that provided by Health & Her, to support them to manage their symptoms.

In 2019, the WHO released guidelines on HIV testing service (HTS). We aim to assess the adoption of six of these recommendations on HIV testing strategies among African countries.

Policy review.

47 countries within the WHO African region.

National HTS policies from the WHO African region as of December 2021.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: Uptake of WHO recommendations across national HTS policies including the standard three-test strategy; discontinuation of a tiebreaker test to rule in HIV infection; discontinuation of western blotting (WB) for HIV diagnosis; retesting prior to antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation and the use of dual HIV/syphilis rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in antenatal care. Country policy adoption was assessed on a continuum, based on varying levels of complete adoption.

National policies were reviewed for 96% (n=45/47) of countries in the WHO African region, 38% (n=18) were published before 2019 and 60% (n=28) adopted WHO guidance. Among countries that had not fully adopted WHO guidance, not yet adopting a three-test strategy was the most common reason for misalignment (45%, 21/47); of which 31% and 22% were in low-prevalence (

Many countries in the African region have adopted WHO-recommended HIV testing strategies; however, efforts are still needed to fully adopt WHO guidance. Countries should accelerate their efforts to adopt and implement a three-test strategy, retesting prior to ART initiation and the use of dual HIV/syphilis RDTs.

The relevance of measures of general and central adiposity for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks in populations of European descent is well established. However, it is less well characterised in South Asian populations, who characteristically manifest larger waist circumferences (WC) for equivalent body mass index (BMI). This systematic review and meta-analysis provide an overview of the literature on the association of different anthropometric measures with CVD risk among South Asians.

MEDLINE and Embase were searched from 1990 to the present for studies in South Asian populations investigating associations of two or more adiposity measures with CVD. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted on the associations of BMI, WC and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) with blood pressure, hypertension and CVD. Quality assessment was performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale.

Titles and abstracts were screened for 7327 studies, yielding 147 full-text reviews. The final sample (n=30) included 2 prospective, 5 case-control and 23 cross-sectional studies. Studies reported generally higher risks of hypertension and CVD at higher adiposity levels. The pooled mean difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) per 5 kg/m² higher BMI was 3 mmHg (2.90 (95% CI 1.30 to 4.50)) and 6 mmHg (6.31 (95% CI 4.81 to 7.81) per 13 cm larger WC. The odds ratio (OR) of hypertension per 5 kg/m² higher BMI was 1.33 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.51), 1.45 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.98) per 13 cm larger WC and 1.22 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.41) per 0.1-unit larger WHR. Pooled risk of CVD for BMI-defined overweight versus healthy-weight was 1.65 (95% CI 1.55 to 1.75) and 1.48 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.80) and 2.51 (95% CI 0.94 to 6.69) for normal versus large WC and WHR, respectively. Study quality was average with significant heterogeneity.

Measures of both general and central adiposity had similar, strong positive associations with the risk of CVD in South Asians. Larger prospective studies are required to clarify which measures of body composition are more informative for targeted CVD primary prevention in this population.

This study aimed to assess the International Quality Improvement Collaborative single-site data from a developing country to identify trends in outcomes and factors associated with poor outcomes.

Retrospective descriptive study.

The National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Karachi, Pakistan.

Patients undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD).

Key factors were examined, including preoperative, procedural and demographic data, as well as surgical complications and outcomes. We identified risk factors for mortality, bacterial sepsis and 30-day mortality using multivariable logistic regression.

A total of 3367 CHD surgical cases were evaluated; of these, 59.4% (2001) were male and 82.8% (2787) were between the ages of 1 and 17 years. Only 0.2% (n=6) were infants (≤30 days) and 2.3% (n=77) were adults (≥18 years). The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.7% (n=224), and 4.4% (n=147) and 0.8% (n=27) had bacterial sepsis and surgical site infections, respectively. The 30-day status was known for 90.8% (n=3058) of the patients, of whom 91.6% (n=2800) were alive. On multivariable analysis, the adjusted OR for in-hospital mortality was 0.40 (0.29–0.56) for teenagers compared with infancy/childhood and 1.95 (1.45–2.61) for patients with oxygen saturation

We observed a high prevalence of postoperative infections and mortality, especially for high-risk procedures, according to RACHS-1 risk category, in infancy/childhood, in children with genetic syndrome or those with low oxygen saturation (

To assess the effects of an electronic health record (EHR) intervention that prompts the clinician to prescribe nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) at hospital admission and discharge in a large integrated health system.

Retrospective cohort study using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis leveraging EHR data generated before and after implementation of the 2015 EHR-based intervention.

Kaiser Permanente Northern California, a large integrated health system with 4.2 million members.

Current smokers aged ≥18 hospitalised for any reason.

EHR-based clinical decision supports that prompted the clinician to order NRT on hospital admission (implemented February 2015) and discharge (implemented September 2015).

Primary outcomes included the monthly percentage of admitted smokers with NRT orders during admission and at discharge. A secondary outcome assessed patient quit rates within 30 days of hospital discharge as reported during discharge follow-up outpatient visits.

The percentage of admissions with NRT orders increased from 29.9% in the year preceding the intervention to 78.1% in the year following (41.8% change, 95% CI 38.6% to 44.9%) after implementation of the admission hard-stop intervention compared with the baseline trend (ITS estimate). The percentage of discharges with NRT orders increased acutely at the time of both interventions (admission intervention ITS estimate 15.5%, 95% CI 11% to 20%; discharge intervention ITS estimate 13.4%, 95% CI 9.1% to 17.7%). Following the implementation of the discharge intervention, there was a small increase in patient-reported quit rates (ITS estimate 5.0%, 95% CI 2.2% to 7.8%).

An EHR-based clinical decision-making support embedded into admission and discharge documentation was associated with an increase in NRT prescriptions and improvement in quit rates. Similar systemic EHR interventions can help improve smoking cessation efforts after hospitalisation.

The epidemiological and demographic transitions are leading to a rising burden of multimorbidity (co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions) worldwide. Evidence on the burden, determinants, consequences and care of multimorbidity in rural and urbanising India is limited, partly due to a lack of longitudinal and objectively measured data on chronic health conditions. We will conduct a mixed-methods study nested in the prospective Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents’ Study (APCAPS) cohort to develop a data resource for understanding the epidemiology of multimorbidity in rural and urbanising India and developing interventions to improve the prevention and care of multimorbidity.

We aim to recruit 2100 APCAPS cohort members aged 45+ who have clinical and lifestyle data collected during a previous cohort follow-up (2010–2012). We will screen for locally prevalent non-communicable, infectious and mental health conditions, alongside cognitive impairments, disabilities and frailty, using a combination of self-reported clinical diagnosis, symptom-based questionnaires, physical examinations and biochemical assays. We will conduct in-depth interviews with people with varying multimorbidity clusters, their informal carers and local healthcare providers. Deidentified data will be made available to external researchers.

The study has received approval from the ethics committees of the National Institute of Nutrition and Indian Institute of Public Health Hyderabad, India and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK. Meta-data and data collection instruments will be published on the APCAPS website alongside details of existing APCAPS data and the data access process (www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/centres-projects-groups/apcaps).

This scoping review aims to identify and synthesise existing statistical methods used to assess the progress of HIV treatment programmes in terms of the HIV cascade and continuum of care among people living with HIV (PLHIV).

Systematic scoping review.

Published articles were retrieved from PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) Complete and Excerpta Medica dataBASE (EMBASE) databases between April and July 2022. We also strategically search using the Google Scholar search engine and reference lists of published articles.

This scoping review included original English articles that estimated and described the HIV cascade and continuum of care progress in PLHIV. The review considered quantitative articles that evaluated either HIV care cascade progress in terms of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS targets or the dynamics of engagement in HIV care.

The first author and the librarian developed database search queries and screened the retrieved titles and abstracts. Two independent reviewers and the first author extracted data using a standardised data extraction tool. The data analysis was descriptive and the findings are presented in tables and visuals.

This review included 300 articles. Cross-sectional study design methods were the most commonly used to assess the HIV care cascade (n=279, 93%). In cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, the majority used proportions to describe individuals at each cascade stage (276/279 (99%) and 20/21 (95%), respectively). In longitudinal studies, the time spent in cascade stages, transition probabilities and cumulative incidence functions was estimated. The logistic regression model was common in both cross-sectional (101/279, 36%) and longitudinal studies (7/21, 33%). Of the 21 articles that used a longitudinal design, six articles used multistate models, which included non-parametric, parametric, continuous-time, time-homogeneous and discrete-time multistate Markov models.

Most literature on the HIV cascade and continuum of care arises from cross-sectional studies. The use of longitudinal study design methods in the HIV cascade is growing because such methods can provide additional information about transition dynamics along the cascade. Therefore, a methodological guide for applying different types of longitudinal design methods to the HIV continuum of care assessments is warranted.

Diabetes distress has been defined as "the negative emotional or affective experience resulting from the challenge of living with the demands of diabetes". Diabetes distress affects 20%–25% of individuals living with diabetes and can have negative effects on both diabetes regulation and quality of life. For people living with diabetes distress, innovative tools/interventions such as online or app-based interventions may potentially alleviate diabetes distress in a cost-effective way. The specific research questions of this scoping review are: (1) what are the effects of online or app-based interventions on diabetes distress for adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes, and (2) what are the characteristics of these interventions (eg, type of intervention, duration, frequency, mode of delivery, underlying theories and working mechanisms)?

A scoping review will be conducted, using the methodological framework of Arksey and O’Malley along with Levac et al. Eligible studies are: studies of adults ≥18 years old with type 1 or 2 diabetes using an online or app-based intervention and assessing diabetes distress as the primary or secondary outcome. Five databases (Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Scopus) will be searched and is limited to articles written in English, Danish, Norwegian, Swedish or Dutch. Two reviewers will independently screen potentially eligible studies in Covidence, select studies, and together chart data, collate, summarise, and report the results. We will adhere to the Preferred reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR).

The scoping review has been exempt from full ethical review by the Regional Committees on Health Research Ethics for Southern Denmark (case number: S-20232000-88). The results of the review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at relevant conferences and workshops with relevant stakeholders.

Children with congenital heart disease (CHD) are at risk for executive functions (EF) impairments. To date, interventions have limited effects on EF in children and adolescents with complex CHD. Therefore, we developed a new multimodal and personalised EF intervention (E-Fit). This study aims to test the feasibility of this intervention called ‘E-Fit’ for children with complex CHD and EF impairments.

This is a single-centre, single-blinded, randomised controlled feasibility study exploring the E-Fit intervention. We aim to enrol 40 children with CHD aged 10–12 years who underwent infant cardiopulmonary bypass surgery and show clinically relevant EF impairments (T-score ≥60 on any Behaviour Rating Inventory for Executive Function questionnaire summary scale). The multimodal intervention was developed with focus groups and the Delphi method involving children and adolescents with CHD, their parents and teachers, and health professionals. The intervention is composed of three elements: computer-based EF training using CogniFit Inc 2022, performed three times a week at home; weekly EF remote strategy coaching and analogue games. The content of the computer and strategy training is personalised to the child’s EF difficulties. The control group follows their daily routines as before and completes a diary about their everyday activities four times a week. Participants will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio. Feasibility is measured by the participants’ and providers’ ratings of the participants’ adherence and exposure to the intervention, recruitment rates and the evaluation of the intended effects of the programme.

Local ethics committee approval was obtained for the study (BASEC-Nr: 2021-02413). Parents provide written informed consent. Key outputs from the trial will be disseminated through presentations at conferences, peer-reviewed publications and directly to participating families. Furthermore, these results will inform the decision whether to proceed to a randomised controlled trial to investigate effectiveness.

NCT05198583.

Despite extensive advances in medical and surgical treatment, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Identifying the significant predictors will help clinicians with the prognosis of the disease and patient management. This study aims to identify and interpret the dependence structure between the predictors and health outcomes of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) male patients in Malaysian setting.

Retrospective study.

Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry years 2006–2013, which consists of 18 hospitals across the country.

7180 male patients diagnosed with STEMI from the NCVD-ACS registry.

A graphical model based on the Bayesian network (BN) approach has been considered. A bootstrap resampling approach was integrated into the structural learning algorithm to estimate probabilistic relations between the studied features that have the strongest influence and support.

The relationships between 16 features in the domain of CVD were visualised. From the bootstrap resampling approach, out of 250, only 25 arcs are significant (strength value ≥0.85 and the direction value ≥0.50). Age group, Killip class and renal disease were classified as the key predictors in the BN model for male patients as they were the most influential variables directly connected to the outcome, which is the patient status. Widespread probabilistic associations between the key predictors and the remaining variables were observed in the network structure. High likelihood values are observed for patient status variable stated alive (93.8%), Killip class I on presentation (66.8%), patient younger than 65 (81.1%), smoker patient (77.2%) and ethnic Malay (59.2%). The BN model has been shown to have good predictive performance.

The data visualisation analysis can be a powerful tool to understand the relationships between the CVD prognostic variables and can be useful to clinicians.