Random forest classification as a tool in epidemiological modelling: Identification of farm-specific characteristics relevant for the occurrence of <i>Fasciola hepatica</i> on German dairy farms

by Andreas W. Oehm, Yury Zablotski, Amely Campe, Martina Hoedemaker, Christina Strube, Andrea Springer, Daniela Jordan, Gabriela Knubben-Schweizer

Fasciola hepatica is an internal parasite of both human and veterinary relevance. In order to control fasciolosis, a multitude of attempts to predict the risk of infection such as risk maps or forecasting models have been developed. These attempts mainly focused on the influence of geo-climatic and meteorological features. Predicting bovine fasciolosis on farm level taking into account farm-specific settings yet remains challenging. In the present study, a new methodology for this purpose, a data-driven machine learning approach using a random forest classification algorithm was applied to a cross-sectional data set of farm characteristics, management regimes, and farmer aspects within two structurally different dairying regions in Germany in order to identify factors relevant for the occurrence of F. hepatica that could predict farm-level bulk tank milk positivity. The resulting models identified farm-specific key aspects in regard to the presence of F. hepatica. In study region North, farm-level production parameters (farm-level milk yield, farm-level milk fat, farm-level milk protein), leg hygiene, body condition (prevalence of overconditioned and underconditioned cows, respectively) and pasture access were identified as features relevant in regard to farm-level F. hepatica positivity. In study region South, pasture access together with farm-level lameness prevalence, farm-level prevalence of hock lesions, herd size, parity, and farm-level milk fat appeared to be important covariates. The stratification of the analysis by study region allows for the extrapolation of the results to similar settings of dairy husbandry. The local, region-specific modelling of F. hepatica presence in this work contributes to the understanding of on-farm aspects of F. hepatica appearance. The applied technique represents a novel approach in this context to model epidemiological data on fasciolosis which allows for the identification of farms at risk and together with additional findings in regard to the epidemiology of fasciolosis, can facilitate risk assessment and deepen our understanding of on-farm drivers of the occurrence of F. hepatica.

Associations of production characteristics with the on-farm presence of <i>Fasciola hepatica</i> in dairy cows vary across production levels and indicate differences between breeds

by Andreas W. Oehm, Yury Zablotski, Martina Hoedemaker, Amely Campe, Christina Strube, Daniela Jordan, Andrea Springer, Markus Klawitter, Gabriela Knubben-Schweizer

Fasciola hepatica is one of the economically most important endoparasites in cattle production. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the relevance of production level on the associations of on-farm presence of F. hepatica with farm-level milk yield, milk fat, and milk protein in Holstein cows, a specialised dairy breed, and in Simmental cows, a dual purpose breed. Furthermore, we investigated whether differential associations were present depending on breed. Data from 560 dairy farms across Germany housing 93,672 cows were analysed. The presence of F. hepatica antibodies was determined via ELISA on bulk tank milk samples. Quantile regression was applied to model the median difference in milk yield, milk fat, and milk protein depending on the interaction of breed and fluke occurrence. Whereas a reduction in milk yield (-1,206 kg, p F. hepatica positive German Holstein farms, only milk fat (-33.8 kg, p = 0.01) and milk protein (-22.6 kg, p = 0.03) were affected on F. hepatica positive German Simmental farms. Subsequently, production traits were modelled within each of the two breeds for low, medium, and high producing farms in the presence of F. hepatica antibodies and of confounders. On Holstein farms, the presence of F. hepatica seropositivity was associated with lower production, while on German Simmental farms such an association was less evident. This work demonstrates that production level is relevant when assessing the associations between the exposure to F. hepatica with production characteristics. Moreover, both models indicate a breed dependence. This could point towards a differential F. hepatica resilience of specialised dairy breeds in comparison with dual purpose breeds.