Intensive care units (ICUs) admit the most severely ill patients. Once these patients are discharged from the ICU to a step-down ward, they continue to have their vital signs monitored by nursing staff, with Early Warning Score (EWS) systems being used to identify those at risk of deterioration.

We report the development and validation of an enhanced continuous scoring system for predicting adverse events, which combines vital signs measured routinely on acute care wards (as used by most EWS systems) with a risk score of a future adverse event calculated on discharge from the ICU.

A modified Delphi process identified candidate variables commonly available in electronic records as the basis for a ‘static’ score of the patient’s condition immediately after discharge from the ICU. L1-regularised logistic regression was used to estimate the in-hospital risk of future adverse event. We then constructed a model of physiological normality using vital sign data from the day of hospital discharge. This is combined with the static score and used continuously to quantify and update the patient’s risk of deterioration throughout their hospital stay.

Data from two National Health Service Foundation Trusts (UK) were used to develop and (externally) validate the model.

A total of 12 394 vital sign measurements were acquired from 273 patients after ICU discharge for the development set, and 4831 from 136 patients in the validation cohort.

Outcome validation of our model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.724 for predicting ICU readmission or in-hospital death within 24 hours. It showed an improved performance with respect to other competitive risk scoring systems, including the National EWS (0.653).

We showed that a scoring system incorporating data from a patient’s stay in the ICU has better performance than commonly used EWS systems based on vital signs alone.

ISRCTN32008295.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rising in low-income and middle-income countries, including Malawi. To inform policy-makers and planners on the preparedness of the Malawian healthcare system to respond to NCDs, we estimated NCD service readiness in publicly financed healthcare facilities in Malawi.

We analysed data from 564 facilities surveyed in the 2019 Harmonised Health Facility Assessment, including 512 primary healthcare (PHC) and 52 secondary and tertiary care (STC) facilities. To characterise service readiness, applying the law of minimum, we estimated the percentage of facilities with functional equipment and unexpired medicines required to provide NCD services. Further, we estimated permanently unavailable items to identify service readiness bottlenecks.

Fewer than 40% of PHC facilities were ready to deliver services for each of the 14 NCDs analysed. Insulin and beclomethasone inhalers had the lowest stock levels at PHC facilities (6% and 8%, respectively). Only 17% of rural and community hospitals (RCHs) have liver and kidney diagnostics. STC facilities had varying service readiness, ranging from 27% for managing acute diabetes complications to 94% for chronic type 2 diabetes management. Only 38% of STC facilities were ready to manage chronic heart failure. Oral pain medicines were widely available at all levels of health facilities; however, only 22% of RCHs and 29% of STCs had injectable morphine or pethidine. Beclomethasone was never available at 74% of PHC and 29% of STC facilities.

Publicly financed facilities in Malawi are generally unprepared to provide NCD services, especially at the PHC level. Targeted investments in PHC can substantially improve service readiness for chronic NCD conditions in local communities and enable STC to respond to acute NCD complications and more complex NCD cases.

Overweight and obesity are growing public health problems worldwide. Both diet and physical activity have been the primary interventions for weight reduction over the past decade. With increasing rates of overweight and obesity, it is evident that a primary focus on diet and exercise has not resulted in sustained obesity reduction within the global population. There is now a case to explore other weight management strategies, focusing on psychological factors that may underpin overweight and obesity. Psychological therapy interventions are gaining recognition for their effectiveness in addressing underlying emotional factors and promoting weight loss. However, there is a dearth of literature that has mapped the types of psychological interventions and the characteristics of these interventions as a means of achieving weight reduction and sustained weight reduction in adults with overweight or obesity.

The review will combine the methodology outlined by Arksey and O’Malley with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines. A total of six databases will be searched using a comprehensive search strategy. Intervention studies will be included if participants are 18 years and over, classified as overweight or obese (body mass index ≥25 kg/m²), and have received a psychological therapy intervention. The review will exclude studies that are not available in English, not full text, none peer reviewed or combine a lifestyle and/or pharmacological intervention with a psychological intervention. Data will be synthesised using a narrative synthesis approach.

Ethical approval is not required to conduct this scoping review. The findings will be disseminated through journal publication(s), social media and a lay summary for key stakeholders.