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Development of a prognostic risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients

by Hirokazu Okada, Atsushi Ono, Koji Tomori, Tsutomu Inoue, Norio Hanafusa, Ken Sakai, Ichiei Narita, Toshiki Moriyama, Yoshitaka Isaka, Kei Fukami, Seiji Itano, Eiichiro Kanda, Naoki Kashihara

Background

Information of short-term prognosis after hemodialysis (HD) introduction is important for elderly patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and their families choosing a modality of renal replacement therapy. Therefore, we developed a risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients.

Materials and methods

We analyzed data of incident elderly HD patients from a nationwide cohort study of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry (JRDR) to develop a prognostic risk score. Candidate risk factors for early death within 1 year was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The risk score was developed by summing up points derived from parameter estimate values of independent risk factors. The association between risk score and early death was tested using Cox proportional hazards models. This risk score was validated twice by using an internal validation cohort derived from the JRDR and an external validation cohort collected for this study.

Results

Using the development cohort (n = 2,000), nine risk factors were retained in the risk score: older age (>85), yes = 2, no = 0; sex, male = 2, female = 0; lower body mass index (2.0 mg/dL), yes = 2, no = 0. In the internal and external validation cohorts (n = 739, 140, respectively), the medium- and high-risk groups (total score, 6 to 10 and 11 or more, respectively) showed significantly higher risk of early death than the low-risk group (total score, 0 to 5) (p Conclusion

We developed a prognostic risk score predicting early death within 1 year in incident elderly Japanese HD patients, which may help detect elderly patients with a high-risk of early death after HD introduction.

Head impact differences in blind football between Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games: video-based observational study

Por: Tsutsumi · S. · Sasadai · J. · Maeda · N. · Tamura · Y. · Nagao · T. · Watanabe · T. · Arima · S. · Kaneda · K. · Yoshimi · M. · Mizuta · R. · Ishihara · H. · Shimizu · R. · Fukui · K. · Tashiro · T. · Komiya · M. · Suzuki · A. · Urabe · Y.
Objective

In Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games, there were the rule and goal size changes at the blind football competition. This study aimed to compare the scoring and head impact characteristics during blind football competition between the Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games using the official videos.

Design

Video-based observational study.

Participants

In total, 36 blind football (men’s football 5-a-side) game videos were obtained from the official International Paralympic Committee.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

Head impact was defined as the sudden contact of any object with the head. Videos were analysed to assess the number of scores and head impacts along with their corresponding details (ie, round, playing phase, scoring situation, impact situation, occurrence area, impact object, head impact site, fall and foul).

Results

The total number of goals scored at the Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games was nearly double that at the Rio 2016 Paralympic Games. Regarding head impacts, a total of 2036 cases (Rio 2016, n=1105; Tokyo 2020, n=931) were evaluated. Significant differences were observed in head impact characteristics between the Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games among seven outcomes (round, scoring situation, impact situation, occurrence area, impact object, site of head impact and fall).

Conclusions

Compared with the Rio 2016 Paralympic Games, the Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games showed an increase in the number of points scored and different head impact characteristics.

Out‐of‐pocket expenditure among patients with diabetic foot ulcer in a tertiary care hospital of south India: A cross‐sectional study

Abstract

Diabetic foot ulcer is a debilitating complication of long-standing diabetes mellitus. Patients lose their earning potential, face repeated hospitalizations, and are forced to bear heavy treatment costs. This places an enormous financial burden on the patients and their families. This study seeks to ascertain the out-of-pocket expenditure among these patients and correlate it with their risk factor profile. In this hospital-based cross-sectional study, a total of 154 patients with diabetic foot ulcers or amputations have been studied with an elaborate patient questionnaire and relevant clinical examinations. The costs incurred and the risk factors of the patients were analyzed for statistical association. The median total annual out-of-pocket expenditure for the management of diabetic foot ulcers among the study participants was found to be ₹29 775 (₹9650–₹81 120) ($378.14 [$122.56–$1030.22]). Out of the total expenditure, 58.49% went towards direct medical costs, 5.64% towards direct non-medical costs, and 35.88% for indirect costs. Medications, ulcer dressing and periodic debridement have accounted for 79.26% of direct medical costs. Transportation (61.37%) and patient's loss of income (89.45%) account for the major costs under the direct non-medical and indirect cost categories, respectively. A high ulcer grade and area, long ulcer duration, and past history of ulcers have higher expenditure. Patients seeking treatment from private establishments and those engaged in professional/skilled occupations have higher expenses. Adequate dressing of foot ulcers and proper footwear are associated with lower treatment expenditure. 68.8% of the participants have faced catastrophic expenditure due to treatment costs of diabetic foot ulcers. Adequate glycaemic control and proper foot care are necessary. Patients must seek medical care at the earliest in case of foot ulceration. Clinicians must provide proper wound care, institute effective antibiotics, and manage the complications. Government and insurance schemes are required to alleviate the patients' financial burden.

Analysis of maternal and child health spillover effects in PEPFAR countries

Por: Gaumer · G. · Crown · W. H. · Kates · J. · Luan · Y. · Hariharan · D. · Jordan · M. · Hurley · C. L. · Nandakumar · A.
Objectives

This study examined whether the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding had effects beyond HIV, specifically on several measures of maternal and child health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). The results of previous research on the question of PEPFAR health spillovers have been inconsistent. This study, using a large, multicountry panel data set of 157 LMICs including 90 recipient countries, adds to the literature.

Design

Seven indicators including child and maternal mortality, several child vaccination rates and anaemia among childbearing-age women are important population health indicators. Panel data and difference-in-differences estimators (DID) were used to estimate the impact of the PEPFAR programme from inception in 2004 to 2018 using a comparison group of 67 LMICs. Several different models of baseline (2004) covariates were used to help balance the comparison and treatment groups. Staggered DID was used to estimate impacts since all countries did not start receiving aid at PEPFAR’s inception.

Setting

All 157 LMICs from 1990 to 2018.

Participants

90 LMICs receiving PEPFAR aid and cohorts of those countries, including those required to submit annual country operational plans (COP), other recipient countries (non-COP), and three groupings of countries based on cumulative amount of per capita aid received (high, medium, low).

Interventions

PEPFAR aid to combat the HIV epidemic.

Primary outcome measures

Maternal mortality and child mortality rates, vaccination rates to protect children for diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus, measles, HepB3, and tetanus, and prevalence of anaemia in women of childbearing age.

Results

Across PEPFAR recipient countries, large, favourable PEPFAR health effects were found for rates of childhood immunisation, child mortality and maternal mortality. These beneficial health effects were large and significant in all segments of PEPFAR recipient countries studied. We also found significant and favourable programme effects on the prevalence of anaemia in women of childbearing age in PEPFAR recipient countries receiving the most intensive financial support from the PEPFAR programme. Other recipient countries did not demonstrate significant effects on anaemia.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated that important health indicators, beyond HIV, have been consistently and favourably influenced by PEPFAR presence. Child and maternal mortality have been substantially reduced, and childhood immunisation rates increased. We also found no evidence of ‘crowding out’ or negative spillovers in these resource-poor countries. These findings add to the body of evidence that PEPFAR has had favourable health effects beyond HIV. The implications of these findings are that foreign aid for health in one area may have favourable health effects in other areas in recipient countries. More research is needed on the influence of the mechanisms at work that create these spillover health effects of PEPFAR.

Persistence of gut dysbiosis in individuals with anorexia nervosa

by Yukiko Morisaki, Noriyuki Miyata, Megumi Nakashima, Tomokazu Hata, Shu Takakura, Kazufumi Yoshihara, Takafumi Suematsu, Koji Nomoto, Kouji Miyazaki, Hirokazu Tsuji, Nobuyuki Sudo

Recent evidence suggests a crucial role of the gut microbiota in the pathogenesis of anorexia nervosa (AN). In this study, we carried out a series of multiple analyses of the gut microbiota of hospitalized individuals with AN over three months using 16S or 23S rRNA-targeted reverse transcription–quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology (YIF-SCAN®), which is highly sensitive and enables the precise quantification of viable microorganisms. Despite the weight gain and improvements in psychological features observed during treatment, individuals with AN exhibited persistent gut microbial dysbiosis over the three-month duration. Principal component analysis further underscored the distinct microbial profile of individuals with AN, compared with that of age-matched healthy women at all time points. Regarding the kinetics of bacterial detection, the detection rate of Lactiplantibacillus spp. significantly increased after inpatient treatment. Additionally, the elevation in the Bifidobacterium counts during inpatient treatment was significantly correlated with the subsequent body weight gain after one year. Collectively, these findings suggest that gut dysbiosis in individuals with AN may not be easily restored solely through weight gain, highlighting the potential of therapeutic interventions targeting microbiota via dietary modifications or live biotherapeutics.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with post-stroke epilepsy: protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis from the International Post-stroke Epilepsy Research Repository (IPSERR)

Por: Mishra · N. K. · Kwan · P. · Tanaka · T. · Sunnerhagen · K. S. · Dawson · J. · Zhao · Y. · Misra · S. · Wang · S. · Sharma · V. K. · Mazumder · R. · Funaro · M. C. · Ihara · M. · Nicolo · J.-P. · Liebeskind · D. S. · Yasuda · C. L. · Cendes · F. · Quinn · T. J. · Ge · Z. · Scalzo · F. · Zela
Introduction

Despite significant advances in managing acute stroke and reducing stroke mortality, preventing complications like post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) has seen limited progress. PSE research has been scattered worldwide with varying methodologies and data reporting. To address this, we established the International Post-stroke Epilepsy Research Consortium (IPSERC) to integrate global PSE research efforts. This protocol outlines an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) to determine outcomes in patients with post-stroke seizures (PSS) and develop/validate PSE prediction models, comparing them with existing models. This protocol informs about creating the International Post-stroke Epilepsy Research Repository (IPSERR) to support future collaborative research.

Methods and analysis

We utilised a comprehensive search strategy and searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycInfo, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases until 30 January 2023. We extracted observational studies of stroke patients aged ≥18 years, presenting early or late PSS with data on patient outcome measures, and conducted the risk of bias assessment. We did not apply any restriction based on the date or language of publication. We will invite these study authors and the IPSERC collaborators to contribute IPD to IPSERR. We will review the IPD lodged within IPSERR to identify patients who developed epileptic seizures and those who did not. We will merge the IPD files of individual data and standardise the variables where possible for consistency. We will conduct an IPD-MA to estimate the prognostic value of clinical characteristics in predicting PSE.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethics approval is not required for this study. The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. This study will contribute to IPSERR, which will be available to researchers for future PSE research projects. It will also serve as a platform to anchor future clinical trials.

Trial registration number

NCT06108102

The incidence of intraoperatively acquired pressure injuries in the park‐bench position was reduced by applying soft silicone multilayer foam dressings

Abstract

The Park-Bench Position (PBP) is associated with a high incidence rate of intraoperatively acquired pressure injuries (IAPIs). Preventive measures must be established to prevent the development of IAPIs. We investigated the risk factors for PBP by applying a soft silicone multilayered foam dressing (SMD) under core temperature management to prevent IAPIs. We conducted a prospective, single-centre, open-label observational study of patients undergoing elective neurosurgery operations using PBP in a university hospital in Japan. The incidence rate of IAPIs in this study was compared with that in our two previous studies, in which a film dressing was applied and core temperature management was not performed. IAPIs developed in 90 patients (6.7%); in the lateral thoracic region in five patients and the iliac crest region in one patient. The operative time (every 1 h: p = 0.0001, OR: odds ratio 3.62, 95% CI: confidence interval 1.73–11.42) was significantly associated with the incidence of IAPIs. In our two previous studies, the incidence rate of IAPIs was 11.0% and 24.1%, respectively, when film dressing was used. SMD may weaken the involvement of risk factors in IAPIs.

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