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Development and validation of machine learning models to predict frailty risk for elderly

Abstract

Aims

Early identification and intervention of the frailty of the elderly will help lighten the burden of social medical care and improve the quality of life of the elderly. Therefore, we used machine learning (ML) algorithm to develop models to predict frailty risk in the elderly.

Design

A prospective cohort study.

Methods

We collected data on 6997 elderly people from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study wave 6–7 surveys (2011–2012, 2014). After the baseline survey in 1998 (wave 1), the project conducted follow-up surveys (wave 2–8) in 2000–2018. The osteoporotic fractures index was used to assess frailty. Four ML algorithms (random forest [RF], support vector machine, XGBoost and logistic regression [LR]) were used to develop models to identify the risk factors of frailty and predict the risk of frailty. Different ML models were used for the prediction of frailty risk in the elderly and frailty risk was trained on a cohort of 4385 elderly people with frailty (split into a training cohort [75%] and internal validation cohort [25%]). The best-performing model for each study outcome was tested in an external validation cohort of 6997 elderly people with frailty pooled from the surveys (wave 6–7). Model performance was assessed by receiver operating curve and F2-score.

Results

Among the four ML models, the F2-score values were similar (0.91 vs. 0.91 vs. 0.88 vs. 0.90), and the area under the curve (AUC) values of RF model was the highest (0.75), followed by LR model (0.74). In the final two models, the AUC values of RF and LR model were similar (0.77 vs. 0.76) and their accuracy was identical (87.4% vs. 87.4%).

Conclusion

Our study developed a preliminary prediction model based on two different ML approaches to help predict frailty risk in the elderly.

Impact

The presented models from this study can be used to inform healthcare providers to predict the frailty probability among older adults and maybe help guide the development of effective frailty risk management interventions.

Implications for the Profession and/or Patient Care

Detecting frailty at an early stage and implementing timely targeted interventions may help to improve the allocation of health care resources and to reduce frailty-related burden. Identifying risk factors for frailty could be beneficial to provide tailored and personalized care intervention for older adults to more accurately prevent or improve their frail conditions so as to improve their quality of life.

Reporting Method

The study has adhered to STROBE guidelines.

Patient or Public Contribution

No patient or public contribution.

Effectiveness of family centred interventions for family caregivers: A systematic review and meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials

Abstract

Aims and objectives

To examine the effectiveness of family-centred interventions among family caregivers.

Background

Family-centred interventions are an emerging form of intervention that can be effective at improving physical and mental health outcomes for patients and family caregivers. To date, no reviews have examined the effectiveness of family-centred interventions for family caregivers.

Design

A systematic review, including a meta-analysis, was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA 2020) checklist.

Methods

Seven English and two Chinese electronic databases were compressively searched from the outset to March 2023. Two researchers independently reviewed the abstracts and full texts, extracted the data and assessed the risk of bias independently by using the Cochrane ‘Risk of bias assessment tool’.

Results

This systematic review and meta-analysis included 20 articles. The results of the meta-analysis showed that family-centred interventions could significantly improve caregiver burden (p=0.003), quality of life (p = 0.007), depression (p = 0.0002), and stress (p < 0.0001) but not anxiety or family functioning. According to our subgroup analysis, the family-centred empowerment model (p = 0.009) was superior to the other family intervention (p=0.004) in reducing caregiver burden. Family-centred interventions are more effective at reducing the burden of caregiving on family caregivers of adolescent patients (SMD=−0.79, 95% CI[−1.22,−0.36], p = 0.0003) than on adult patients (SMD=−0.37, 95% CI [−0.61,−0.12], p = 0.004).

Conclusions

Family-centred interventions could enhance family caregivers’ burden, quality of life, stress and depression but had no significant impact on anxiety or family functioning.

Relevance to Clinical Practice

Family-centred interventions have the potential to improve the health status and caregiving burden of family caregivers. Rigorous and high-quality evidence is needed to confirm the long-term effects of these interventions on family caregivers.

Trial Registration Details

The protocol has been registered in the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews (Protocol registration ID: CRD42023453607).

Metabolism, fibrosis, and apoptosis: The effect of lipids and their derivatives on keloid formation

Abstract

Keloids, pathological scars resulting from skin trauma, have traditionally posed significant clinical management challenges due to their persistence and high recurrence rates. Our research elucidates the pivotal roles of lipids and their derivatives in keloid development, driven by underlying mechanisms of abnormal cell proliferation, apoptosis, and extracellular matrix deposition. Key findings suggest that abnormalities in arachidonic acid (AA) synthesis and non-essential fatty acid synthesis are integral to keloid formation. Further, a complex interplay exists between lipid derivatives, notably butyric acid (BA), prostaglandin E2 (PGE2), prostaglandin D2 (PGD2), and the regulation of hyperfibrosis. Additionally, combinations of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with BA and 15-deoxy-Δ12,14-Prostaglandin J2 have exhibited pronounced cytotoxic effects. Among sphingolipids, ceramide (Cer) displayed limited pro-apoptotic effects in keloid fibroblasts (KFBs), whereas sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) was found to promote keloid hyperfibrosis, with its analogue, FTY720, demonstrating contrasting benefits. Both Vitamin D and hexadecylphosphorylcholine (HePC) showed potential antifibrotic and antiproliferative properties, suggesting their utility in keloid management. While keloids remain a prevalent concern in clinical practice, this study underscores the promising potential of targeting specific lipid molecules for the advancement of keloid therapeutic strategies.

Predictors for different types of surgical site infection in patients with gastric cancer: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Abstract

Various factors contribute to different types of surgical site infections (SSI) in gastric cancer patients undergoing surgery, and the risk factors remain uncertain. This meta-analysis aims to clarify the relationship between various factors and SSI, resolving existing controversies. Thirty-four eligible articles with 66 066 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Significant risk factors for SSI included age ≥65 years, male gender, BMI ≥25 kg/m2, diabetes, hypertension, advanced TNM stage ≥III, pathologic T stage ≥T3, pathologic N stage ≥N1, ASA ≥3, open surgery, blood transfusion, extensive resection, combined resection, splenectomy, D2 or more lymph node dissection, and operative time ≥240 min. Operative time showed a nonlinear relationship with SSI risk. Subgroup analysis revealed significant differences in the effects of risk factors among different infection types. These findings inform the development of targeted preventive measures to reduce SSI rates.

Trajectory and predictors of family function in caregivers of stroke survivors: A longitudinal study of the first 6 months after stroke

Abstract

Aims

This study aimed to investigate the trajectory and predictors of family function in caregivers of stroke survivors during the first 6 months after the first episode of stroke.

Design

Longitudinal study.

Methods

A total of 288 primary caregivers of patients with first-time stroke were recruited from seven tertiary hospitals in China between July 2020 and March 2021. The following characteristics were assessed by caregivers at hospitalization (T0) and at 1 month (T1), 3 months (T2) and 6 months (T3) after the stroke: family function, general self-efficacy, social support, coping style, caregiver burden, and sociodemographic and clinical data.

Results

Family function scores among caregivers of stroke survivors were highest in the resolve dimension and lowest in the growth and adaptation dimensions within the first 6 months. The percentages of families with low functioning were 34.7%, 33.3%, 24.8% and 17.7% at T0, T1, T2 and T3, respectively. The generalized estimating equation model revealed that family function in caregivers increased over the first 6 months (Exp(B) = 1.415–2.689, p < .05). The following factors were identified as predictors of family functioning: caregiver's age, education, residential district, self-efficacy, social support utilization and caregiver burden.

Conclusions

Family function of caregivers of stroke survivors gradually increased during the first 6 months after stroke. However, some families demonstrated poor functioning. Caregivers' age, education, caregiver burden, self-efficacy and social support utilization could predict family function over time.

Impact

Empirical data on family function in families of stroke survivors are important for developing psychosocial interventions that can help families adapt to stroke. This study found that families of stroke survivors were likely to be dysfunctional in the first 6 months after stroke, particularly in family growth and adaptation. Therefore, reducing caregiver burden and promoting self-efficacy and social support utilization can help restore family functioning early after stroke.

Patient or Public Contribution

Stroke caregivers from seven hospitals in China were involved in this study and had the right to be informed of the main findings. A few patients were informed of the research results, who contributed to the dissemination.

Effect of hydrocolloid dressings in the management of different grades of pressure wound ulcers in critically ill adult subjects: A meta‐analysis

Abstract

A meta-analysis was implemented to appraise the effect of hydrocolloid dressings (HCDs) in the management of different grades of pressure wound ulcers (PWUs) in critically ill adult subjects (CIUSs). Inclusive literature research until April 2023 was done, and 969 interconnected researches were revised. The 8 picked researches, enclosed 679 critically ill adult persons at the utilized researchers' starting point; 355 of them were utilizing HCDs, and 324 were controls. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were utilized to appraise the consequences of HCDs in treating CIUSs by the dichotomous approach and a fixed or random model. HCDs had significantly higher PWU complete healing (OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.54–3.02, p < 0.001), PWU stage II ulcers complete healing (OR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.40–5.69, p = 0.004), and PWU stage III ulcers complete healing (OR, 3.73; 95% CI, 1.23–11.35, p = 0.02) compared to control in critically ill adult persons. HCDs had significantly higher PWU complete healing, PWU stage II ulcers complete healing, and PWU stage III ulcers complete healing compared with control in critically ill adult persons. However, caution needs to be taken when interacting with its values since there was a low sample size of most of the chosen research found for the comparisons in the meta-analysis.

Effect of mitomycin C and 5‐fluorouracil on wound healing in patients undergoing glaucoma surgery: A meta‐analysis

Abstract

Increased intraocular pressure (IOP) is a risk factor for glaucoma. One treatment option is trabeculectomy. Antimetabolic agents are used in the operation to decrease the post-operative scarring of the wound. The two most common medicines are Mitomycin C (MMC) and 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU). The aim of this research is to assess the effect of MMC on post-operation wound healing in comparison with 5-FU in addition to trabeculectomy. Well, we went through four common databases. Our language was limited to English during the study. The last time we looked at the e-databases was August 2023. Case control studies were performed where MMC resulted in better wound healing than 5-FU. Researchers selected a total of 1023 trials and eventually selected six trials for data analysis. Four hundred and ninety one cases of glaucoma were treated with trabeculectomy. Among them, 246 were given MMC and 245 were given 5-FU during operation. Six trials showed that there was no statistical difference between MMC and 5-FU in the incidence of post-operative wound leak in glaucoma patients who received trabeculectomy (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.63–2.30 p = 0.57); Five trials demonstrated that MMC was associated with a reduced risk of post-operative corneal damage compared to 5-FU injection (OR, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.06–0.56 p = 0.003); In both trials, the incidence of post-operative bleeding was not significantly different from that of 5-FU injected in the MMC group (OR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.05–2.16 p = 0.25). Our results indicate that MMC is superior to 5-FU in the reduction of post-operative corneal injury. Additional comparisons between MMC and 5-FU are required in order to increase the reliability and effectiveness of these findings.

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