To evaluate oxygen saturation and vital signs measured in the community by emergency medical services (EMS) as clinical markers of COVID-19-positive patient deterioration.

A retrospective data analysis.

Patients were conveyed by EMS to two hospitals in Hampshire, UK, between 1 March 2020 and 31 July 2020.

A total of 1080 patients aged ≥18 years with a COVID-19 diagnosis were conveyed by EMS to the hospital.

The primary study outcome was admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) within 30 days of conveyance, with a secondary outcome representing mortality within 30 days of conveyance. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate, in a retrospective fashion, the efficacy of different variables in predicting patient outcomes.

Vital signs measured by EMS staff at the first point of contact in the community correlated with patient 30-day ICU admission and mortality. Oxygen saturation was comparably predictive of 30-day ICU admission (area under ROC (AUROC) 0.753; 95% CI 0.668 to 0.826) to the National Early Warning Score 2 (AUROC 0.731; 95% CI 0.655 to 0.800), followed by temperature (AUROC 0.720; 95% CI 0.640 to 0.793) and respiration rate (AUROC 0.672; 95% CI 0.586 to 0.756).

Initial oxygen saturation measurements (on air) for confirmed COVID-19 patients conveyed by EMS correlated with short-term patient outcomes, demonstrating an AUROC of 0.753 (95% CI 0.668 to 0.826) in predicting 30-day ICU admission. We found that the threshold of 93% oxygen saturation is prognostic of adverse events and of value for clinician decision-making with sensitivity (74.2% CI 0.642 to 0.840) and specificity (70.6% CI 0.678 to 0.734).

Healthcare systems are currently facing challenges in enhancing access and improving the quality of healthcare services around the world, and one of the innovative strategies that have been used to address such challenges is the positive deviance (PD) approach. The approach assumes that identifying, examining, understanding and disseminating solutions to problems that are already available within the community and organisations including the healthcare system can help in bringing improvements at scale. However, to the best of the researcher’s knowledge, there is no scoping review, that is, conducted to map and synthesise the available evidence on the use of the PD approach for healthcare system service improvements. Hence, this scoping review aims to map and synthesise resources on the methodologies and reported outcomes and identify gaps and potentials regarding the use of the PD approach in the healthcare system.

Articles will be searched and retrieved in research databases such as PubMed, Embase and Scopus. Retrieved articles will be screened independently for inclusion through a title and, or abstract review. Then, articles that passed the title and abstract review will be screened by reading the full texts. A descriptive mapping and synthesis of the literature will be employed to present data using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis extension for Scoping Reviews checklist and data will be presented in text, figure and table formats.

The results of this scoping review will be published in peer-reviewed reputable international journals. Furthermore, it will also be disseminated through conference presentations, and popular press to the wider community. However, formal ethical approval is not required as primary data will not be collected.