The fragmentation of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic at national, regional and local levels is a possible source of variability in the impact of the pandemic on society. This study aims to assess how much of this variability affected the burden of COVID-19, measured in terms of all-cause 2020 excess mortality.
Ecological retrospective study.
Lombardy region of Italy, 2015–2020.
We evaluated the relationship between the intensity of the epidemics and excess mortality, assessing the heterogeneity of this relationship across the 91 districts after adjusting for relevant confounders.
The epidemic intensity was quantified as the COVID-19 hospitalisations per 1000 inhabitants. Five confounders were identified through a directed acyclic graph: age distribution, population density, pro-capita gross domestic product, restriction policy and population mobility.
Analyses were based on a negative binomial regression model with district-specific random effects. We found a strong, positive association between COVID-19 hospitalisations and 2020 excess mortality (p
The homogeneous effect of the COVID-19 spread on the excess mortality in the Lombardy districts suggests that, despite the unprecedented conditions, the pandemic reactions did not result in health disparities in the region.