Development of a prognostic risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients

by Hirokazu Okada, Atsushi Ono, Koji Tomori, Tsutomu Inoue, Norio Hanafusa, Ken Sakai, Ichiei Narita, Toshiki Moriyama, Yoshitaka Isaka, Kei Fukami, Seiji Itano, Eiichiro Kanda, Naoki Kashihara

Background

Information of short-term prognosis after hemodialysis (HD) introduction is important for elderly patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and their families choosing a modality of renal replacement therapy. Therefore, we developed a risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients.

Materials and methods

We analyzed data of incident elderly HD patients from a nationwide cohort study of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry (JRDR) to develop a prognostic risk score. Candidate risk factors for early death within 1 year was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The risk score was developed by summing up points derived from parameter estimate values of independent risk factors. The association between risk score and early death was tested using Cox proportional hazards models. This risk score was validated twice by using an internal validation cohort derived from the JRDR and an external validation cohort collected for this study.

Results

Using the development cohort (n = 2,000), nine risk factors were retained in the risk score: older age (>85), yes = 2, no = 0; sex, male = 2, female = 0; lower body mass index (2.0 mg/dL), yes = 2, no = 0. In the internal and external validation cohorts (n = 739, 140, respectively), the medium- and high-risk groups (total score, 6 to 10 and 11 or more, respectively) showed significantly higher risk of early death than the low-risk group (total score, 0 to 5) (p Conclusion

We developed a prognostic risk score predicting early death within 1 year in incident elderly Japanese HD patients, which may help detect elderly patients with a high-risk of early death after HD introduction.

Suicide trends in Denmark—An ecological study exploring suicide methods from 1995 to 2019

by Agnieszka Konieczna, Christina Petrea Larsen, Sarah Grube Jakobsen, Taro Okuda, Karin Moriyama, Winibaldus Stefanus Mere, Erik Christiansen

Suicide is a major public health problem and complex phenomenon, affecting many people around the world. However, the incidence of suicide varies by sex and age, which includes differences in the means used. Therefore, to implement effective preventative interventions, it is important to study these differences to design effective, preventative interventions. This study investigates the trends in suicide rates in Denmark from 1995 to 2019 by analysing changes based on sex, age, and the means used for suicide. Data on all suicide deaths in the study period were extracted from the Danish Register of Causes of Death, and data on the background population were obtained from Statistics Denmark. We used negative binomial regression models to analyse the data, and the obtained estimates as a logarithm of the rate ratios allowed us to compare the results across groups and years. An overall decline in Danish suicide rates was observed during the study period, with the exception of young females aged 15–29 years. The demographic composition did not change significantly, and suicide rates are still highest for males and the elderly aged 60+. Hanging, self-poisoning and firearms remain the most prevalent means of suicide. Suicide prevention initiatives are required, especially interventions targeting males and the elderly. Restricting access to the means of suicide for these groups with high fatality rates may help reduce the overall suicide rate. Moreover, more research is needed to understand the factors that lead to suicide and affect the choice of means, which should also include studying the effects of different suicide prevention strategies on males and females from different age groups.