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To assess the survival predictivity of baseline blood cell differential count (BCDC), discretised according to two different methods, in adults visiting an emergency room (ER) for illness or trauma over 1 year.
Retrospective cohort study of hospital records.
Tertiary care public hospital in northern Italy.
11 052 patients aged >18 years, consecutively admitted to the ER in 1 year, and for whom BCDC collection was indicated by ER medical staff at first presentation.
Survival was the referral outcome for explorative model development. Automated BCDC analysis at baseline assessed haemoglobin, mean cell volume (MCV), red cell distribution width (RDW), platelet distribution width (PDW), platelet haematocrit (PCT), absolute red blood cells, white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, basophils and platelets. Discretisation cut-offs were defined by benchmark and tailored methods. Benchmark cut-offs were stated based on laboratory reference values (Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute). Tailored cut-offs for linear, sigmoid-shaped and U-shaped distributed variables were discretised by maximally selected rank statistics and by optimal-equal HR, respectively. Explanatory variables (age, gender, ER admission during SARS-CoV2 surges and in-hospital admission) were analysed using Cox multivariable regression. Receiver operating curves were drawn by summing the Cox-significant variables for each method.
Of 11 052 patients (median age 67 years, IQR 51–81, 48% female), 59% (n=6489) were discharged and 41% (n=4563) were admitted to the hospital. After a 306-day median follow-up (IQR 208–417 days), 9455 (86%) patients were alive and 1597 (14%) deceased. Increased HRs were associated with age >73 years (HR=4.6, 95% CI=4.0 to 5.2), in-hospital admission (HR=2.2, 95% CI=1.9 to 2.4), ER admission during SARS-CoV2 surges (Wave I: HR=1.7, 95% CI=1.5 to 1.9; Wave II: HR=1.2, 95% CI=1.0 to 1.3). Gender, haemoglobin, MCV, RDW, PDW, neutrophils, lymphocytes and eosinophil counts were significant overall. Benchmark-BCDC model included basophils and platelet count (area under the ROC (AUROC) 0.74). Tailored-BCDC model included monocyte counts and PCT (AUROC 0.79).
Baseline discretised BCDC provides meaningful insight regarding ER patients’ survival.
Patients with heart failure experience multiple co-occurring symptoms that lower their quality of life and increase hospitalization and mortality rates. So far, no heart failure symptom cluster study recruited patients from community settings or focused on symptoms predicting most clinical outcomes. Considering physical and psychological symptoms together allows understanding how they burden patients in different combinations. Moreover, studies predicting symptom cluster membership using variables other than symptoms are lacking. We aimed to (a) cluster heart failure patients based on physical and psychological symptoms and (b) predict symptom cluster membership using sociodemographic/clinical variables.
Secondary analysis of MOTIVATE-HF trial, which recruited 510 heart failure patients from a hospital, an outpatient and a community setting in Italy.
Cluster analysis was performed based on the two scores of the Hospital Anxiety-Depression scale and two scores of the Heart-Failure Somatic Perception Scale predicting most clinical outcomes. ANOVA and chi-square test were used to compare patients' characteristics among clusters. For the predictive analysis, we split the data into a training set and a test set and trained three classification models on the former to predict patients' symptom cluster membership based on 11 clinical/sociodemographic variables. Permutation analysis investigated which variables best predicted cluster membership.
Four clusters were identified based on the intensity and combination of psychological and physical symptoms: mixed distress (high psychological, low physical symptoms), high distress, low distress and moderate distress. Clinical and sociodemographic differences were found among clusters. NYHA-class (New York Heart Association) and sleep quality were the most important variables in predicting symptom cluster membership.
These results can support the development of tailored symptom management intervention and the investigation of symptom clusters' effect on patient outcomes. The promising results of the predictive analysis suggest that such benefits may be obtained even when direct access to symptoms-related data is absent.
These results may be particularly useful to clinicians, patients and researchers because they highlight the importance of addressing clusters of symptoms, instead of individual symptoms, to facilitate symptom detection and management. Knowing which variables best predict symptom cluster membership can allow to obtain such benefits even when direct access to symptoms-data is absent.
Four clusters of heart failure patients characterized by different intensity and combination of psychological and physical symptoms were identified. NYHA class and sleep quality appeared important variables in predicting symptom cluster membership.
The authors have adhered to the EQUATOR guidelines STROBE to report observational cross-sectional studies.
Patients were included only for collecting their data.
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