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Impacts of armed conflicts on tuberculosis burden and treatment outcomes: a systematic review

Por: Gebreyohannes · E. A. · Wolde · H. F. · Akalu · T. Y. · Clements · A. C. A. · Alene · K. A.
Objectives

This systematic review aimed to summarise existing literature on the impacts of armed conflicts on tuberculosis burden and treatment outcomes.

Design

A systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

Data sources

PubMed, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature Plus, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Embase and medRxiv.

Data extraction and synthesis

Three reviewers independently screened, selected eligible studies and extracted data. A narrative review was undertaken to summarise the findings qualitatively.

Results

Eleven studies were included in this review, reporting on tuberculosis incidence rates, prevalence and treatment outcomes, including mortality. Overall, the impact of armed conflicts on case notifications was variable. Six studies reported overall increases in tuberculosis case notifications following the onset of conflicts, while three studies reported overall decreases in tuberculosis case notifications. Factors, including limited access to healthcare services, challenges in surveillance and laboratory confirmation, the destruction of health systems and incapacitating the healthcare workforce, contributed to a decrease in the number of notified cases. The higher tuberculosis notification in some of the studies could be attributed to the disruption of tuberculosis prevention and control programmes as well as increased socioeconomic deprivation, including malnutrition, mass migration, poor living conditions and overcrowding that are worsened during conflicts. Armed conflicts without effective interventions were associated with worse tuberculosis treatment outcomes, including lower proportions of people with treatment success and higher proportions of people with loss to follow-up, mortality and treatment failure. However, implementing various interventions in conflict settings (such as establishing a National Tuberculosis Control Programme) led to higher tuberculosis notification rates and treatment success.

Conclusion

The impact of armed conflicts on tuberculosis notification is complex and is influenced by multiple factors. The findings of this review underscore the importance of concerted efforts to control tuberculosis in conflict settings using available resources.

Burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis among contacts of index cases: a protocol for a systematic review

Por: Akalu · T. Y. · Clements · A. C. A. · Gebreyohannes · E. A. · Wolde · H. F. · Shiferaw · F. W. · Alene · K. A.
Introduction

People having close contact with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) patients are at increased risk of contracting and developing the disease. However, no comprehensive review has been undertaken to estimate the burden of DR-TB among contacts of DR-TB patients. Therefore, the current systematic review will quantify the prevalence and incidence of DR-TB among contacts of DR-TB patients.

Method and analysis

Systematic searches will be conducted in Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled trials (CENTRAL) and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINHAL) databases. The search will be conducted without restrictions on time, language and geography. A random-effects meta-analysis will be conducted for effect estimates. The pooled prevalence and incidence of DR-TB will be compared between people with and without contact with DR-TB patients. The presence of heterogeneity between studies will be assessed by Higgins I2 statistics. Subgroup analysis will be conducted to determine the source of heterogeneity. The risk of bias will be assessed using a visual inspection of the funnel plot and Egger’s regression test statistics. Trim and fill analysis will be done in the presence of publication bias. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted by trimming low-quality studies. The systematic review will be reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocol guidelines.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethical approval will not be required for this study as it will be a systematic review and meta-analysis based on previously published evidence. The findings of the systematic review will be presented at scientific conferences and published in scientific journals.

Protocol registration

The protocol is published in PROSPERO with registration number CRD42023390339.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for pulmonary tuberculosis among presumptive tuberculosis cases in Ethiopia

Por: Wolde · H. F. · Clements · A. C. A. · Alene · K. A.
Background

Early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis (TB) is one of the key strategies to achieve the WHO End TB targets. This study aimed to develop and validate a simple, convenient risk score to diagnose pulmonary TB among presumptive TB cases.

Methods

This prediction model used Ethiopian national TB prevalence survey data and included 5459 presumptive TB cases from all regions of Ethiopia. Logistic regression was used to determine which variables are predictive of pulmonary TB. A risk prediction model was developed, incorporating significant variables (p

Results

Of total participants, 94 (1.7%) were confirmed to have TB. The final prediction model included three factors with different scores: (1) TB contact history, (2) chest X-ray (CXR) abnormality and (3) two or more symptoms of TB. The optimal cut-off point for the risk score was 6 and was found to have a good discrimination accuracy (c-statistic=0.70, 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.75). The risk score has sensitivity of 51.1%, specificity of 79.9%, positive predictive value of 4.3% and negative predictive value of 98.9%. After internal validation, the optimism coefficient was 0.003, which indicates the model is internally valid.

Conclusion

We developed a risk score that combines TB contact, number of TB symptoms and CXR abnormality to estimate individual risk of pulmonary TB among presumptive TB cases. Though the score is easy to calculate and internally validated, it needs external validation before widespread implementation in a new setting.

Maternal near-miss prediction model development among pregnant women in Bahir Dar City administration, northwest Ethiopia: a study protocol

Por: Workineh · Y. · Alene · G. D. · Fekadu · G. A.
Introduction

Maternal near-miss is a condition when a woman nearly died but survived from complications that happened during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days after delivery. Maternal near-miss is more prevalent among women in developing nations. Previous studies have identified the impact of different predictor variables on maternal near-miss but shared prognostic predictors are not adequately explored in Ethiopia. It is therefore necessary to build a clinical prediction model for maternal near-misses in Ethiopia. Hence, the aim of this study is to develop and validate a prognostic prediction model, and generate a risk score for maternal near-miss among pregnant women in Bahir Dar City Administration.

Methods and analysis

A prospective follow-up study design will be employed among 2110 selected pregnant women in the Bahir Dar City administration from 1 May 2023 to 1 April 2024. At the initial antenatal visit, pregnant women will be systematically selected. Then, they will be followed until 42 days following birth. Data will be collected using structured questionnaires and data extraction sheet. The model will be created using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The performance of the model will be assessed based on its capacity for discrimination using c-index and calibration using calibration plot, intercept and slope. The model’s internal validity will be evaluated through the bootstrapping method. Ultimately, the model will be illustrated through a nomogram and decision tree, which will be made available to prospective users.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethical approval has been obtained from the Institutional Review Board of the College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University (protocol number 704/2023). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and local and international seminars, conferences, symposiums and workshops. Manuscripts will be prepared and published in scientifically reputable journals. In addition, policy briefs will be prepared.

Tiempos de pandemia: nivel de satisfacción de docentes universitarios en el desarrollo de las clases virtuales

Las TICs permiten que el estudiante acceda al material de estudio y, a su vez, interactúe con el profesor y con otros estudiantes. La pandemia COVID-19 ha obligado a docentes a impartir clases virtuales de urgencia para cumplir con las actividades académicas programadas.

El objetivo es analizar el nivel de satisfacción de docentes en el desarrollo de las clases virtual en tiempos de pandemia. El diseño fue observacional, descriptiva, de corte transversal, enfoque cuantitativo, el universo estuvo compuesto por docentes de la FENOB-UNA Casa Central y Filiales, con una muestra de 114 docentes, la selección se realizó a través de un muestreo no probabilístico de casos consecutivos, la recolección de datos se hizo a través de una encuesta en línea con un cuestionario elaborado por las investigadoras, validada por expertos. Los hallazgos más relevantes fueron: mayoritariamente de sexo femenino, del grupo etario de 36 a 55 años, de estado civil casado, procedentes del departamento Central, son docente catedráticos y ejercen su labor solamente en la FENOB-UNA, cuenta con conexión a internet, utiliza computadora portátil y destina 2 horas para las clases. El análisis entre las características sociodemográficas y el nivel de satisfacción con el desarrollo de las clases virtuales es estadísticamente significativo con la variable edad. Se concluye que el nivel de satisfacción de docentes en el desarrollo de las clases virtuales en tiempos de pandemia fue medianamente satisfecho.

ABSTRACT

ICTs allow the student to access the study material and, in turn, interact with the teacher and other students. The COVID-19 Pandemic has forced teachers to teach emergency virtual classes to comply with scheduled academic activities. The objective is to analyze the level of satisfaction of teachers in the development of virtual classes in times of pandemic. The design was observational, descriptive, cross-sectional, quantitative approach, the universe was made up of teachers from the FENOB- UNA Central House and Subsidiaries, with a sample of 114 teachers, the selection was made through a non-probabilistic sampling of cases. consecutive, data collection was done through an online survey with a questionnaire prepared by the researchers, validated by experts. The most relevant findings were: mostly female, in the age group of 36 to 55 years, with married marital status, from the Central Department, are professors and work only at FENOB-UNA, have an internet connection, He uses a laptop and allocates 2 hours for classes. The analysis between the sociodemographic characteristics and the level of satisfaction with the development of virtual classes is statistically significant with the age variable. It is concluded that the level of satisfaction of teachers in the development of virtual classes in times of pandemic was moderately satisfied.

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