We performed a microsimulation analysis predicting the societal cost of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which represents the potential cost savings if Ghana eliminates AMR.

This study combined bacterial resistance epidemiology and cost data from Ghana to perform a microsimulation analysis focusing on sociodemographic groups, predicting the potential societal cost savings should Ghana eliminate AMR. The nationally representative data were collected from 12 reference laboratories across Ghana’s three geographical belts between June 2021 and December 2023. Case definition was enterobacterial third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistant infections, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Using an adapted microsimulation framework, the simulation incorporated four integrated data modules: population demographics, infection epidemiology, healthcare resource use and expenditure and labour market characteristics. This approach allowed for the construction of synthetic individuals from national data sets and the projection of annual outcomes over a 7-year horizon. Costs were calculated from a societal perspective under a status quo scenario, assuming that admission rates, resistant infection probabilities and mortality rates remain the same. This analysis also considers a 2.1% annual population growth rate, a 5% discount rate for future costs and age-specific resistance risk profile. We stratified the outcome of interest by age groups, sex and wealth quintiles to account for distributional effects and reported the costs in purchasing power parity equivalent in international US dollars.

Ghana in West Africa.

A simulated population of AMR patients of all ages and sex.

Societal cost attributable to AMR in Ghana.

Assuming probabilities of all-cause hospital admissions of 0.102 for females and 0.093 for males, along with probabilities of AMR infections of 0.239 and 0.193, we predicted nearly 78 000 (95% CI 72 000 to 83 520) annual AMR infections and approximately 6300 (95% CI 3900 to 8638) attributable deaths. MRSA and 3GC-resistant infections made up 20.2% and 79.2% of the predicted annual infections, corresponding to an estimated mean societal cost of about US$435 million. In decreasing order of magnitude, the estimated mean annual cost of productivity loss due to AMR attributable mortality accounted for 40.6% of the mean annual societal cost, followed by the cost to healthcare providers (24.1%), direct medical cost to patients and caregivers (22.4%), productivity loss for surviving patients and caregivers (10.4%) and direct non-medical costs to patients and caregivers (2.6%). Resistant infections in children under 5 and adults over 60 years contributed 48.2% and 26.9% of the estimated annual societal cost, respectively. Except for the number of resistant infections, the estimated mean annual costs between wealth quintile groups were significantly different (p=0.03) due to differences in productivity costs between wealth quintile groups.

The study shows that the societal cost implications attributable to AMR are enormous, requiring a concerted effort by society to mitigate the development and spread of AMR organisms.

Sarcopenia, osteoporosis and osteosarcopenia are conditions prevalent in ageing that impair muscle strength and bone density, increasing the risks of fractures, falls, disability and mortality. Recent studies highlight the benefits of milk protein supplementation (MPS) combined with exercises to improve musculoskeletal health in the older population. This systematic review protocol will enable the production of a compilation of evidence that will elucidate the effects of MPS combined with aerobic exercise, resistance exercise or both on the musculoskeletal function of older individuals with these three conditions.

Studies will be selected from electronic databases, including PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library, without restrictions on language or publication date. The outcomes evaluated will include muscle mass, muscle strength, BMD and physical performance after combined interventions of MPS and physical exercise of any type. The risk of bias will be assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach will be used to classify the certainty of the evidence into four levels: high, moderate, low and very low. Meta-analysis will be performed given the homogeneity of the studies, using random effects methods in the face of the expected heterogeneity. The standardised mean difference (SMD) will be used for continuous data, and the I² index will assess heterogeneity (I² > 50%). Sensitivity analysis, ‘leave one out’ and a strategy for dealing with missing data will be carried out. Statistical analysis will be conducted using the STATA 18 software with a 95% CI and p

Formal ethical approval will not be required as primary data collection will not be performed. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations at conferences dedicated to the relevant field of study.

CRD42024555933.