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Development and validation of machine learning models to predict frailty risk for elderly

Abstract

Aims

Early identification and intervention of the frailty of the elderly will help lighten the burden of social medical care and improve the quality of life of the elderly. Therefore, we used machine learning (ML) algorithm to develop models to predict frailty risk in the elderly.

Design

A prospective cohort study.

Methods

We collected data on 6997 elderly people from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study wave 6–7 surveys (2011–2012, 2014). After the baseline survey in 1998 (wave 1), the project conducted follow-up surveys (wave 2–8) in 2000–2018. The osteoporotic fractures index was used to assess frailty. Four ML algorithms (random forest [RF], support vector machine, XGBoost and logistic regression [LR]) were used to develop models to identify the risk factors of frailty and predict the risk of frailty. Different ML models were used for the prediction of frailty risk in the elderly and frailty risk was trained on a cohort of 4385 elderly people with frailty (split into a training cohort [75%] and internal validation cohort [25%]). The best-performing model for each study outcome was tested in an external validation cohort of 6997 elderly people with frailty pooled from the surveys (wave 6–7). Model performance was assessed by receiver operating curve and F2-score.

Results

Among the four ML models, the F2-score values were similar (0.91 vs. 0.91 vs. 0.88 vs. 0.90), and the area under the curve (AUC) values of RF model was the highest (0.75), followed by LR model (0.74). In the final two models, the AUC values of RF and LR model were similar (0.77 vs. 0.76) and their accuracy was identical (87.4% vs. 87.4%).

Conclusion

Our study developed a preliminary prediction model based on two different ML approaches to help predict frailty risk in the elderly.

Impact

The presented models from this study can be used to inform healthcare providers to predict the frailty probability among older adults and maybe help guide the development of effective frailty risk management interventions.

Implications for the Profession and/or Patient Care

Detecting frailty at an early stage and implementing timely targeted interventions may help to improve the allocation of health care resources and to reduce frailty-related burden. Identifying risk factors for frailty could be beneficial to provide tailored and personalized care intervention for older adults to more accurately prevent or improve their frail conditions so as to improve their quality of life.

Reporting Method

The study has adhered to STROBE guidelines.

Patient or Public Contribution

No patient or public contribution.

Exploring the impact of OSA on short-term survival in patients with AECOPD admitted to the ICU

by Liangfeng Liu, Yang Chen, Guanwen He, Bingbang Lin, Zhongshou Zhu, Rifu Wei, Yangbin Xu

Background

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is characterized by a sudden worsening of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) symptoms, which significantly contributes to hospitalizations related to COPD symptoms. Previous research has mainly focused on the correlation between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and COPD. However, there were few studies that investigated the short-term mortality rate of AECOPD patients with or without OSA.

Methods

Data for our research was taken from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Database IV. A total of 1332 patients were included in the study based on well-defined criteria for selection and exclusion. By analyzing the characteristics of AECOPD patients, we compared those with and without OSA.

Results

There were 1122 AECOPD patients without OSA, 210 patients with OSA. In comparison to those without OSA, patients with OSA exhibited lower 30-day and 90-day ICU mortality with unadjusted HR, as well as lower hospital mortality with unadjusted OR. However, after adjustments were made, there were no significant associations observed between OSA and short-term mortality, including 30-day ICU mortality, 90-day ICU mortality, ICU mortality, and hospital mortality in AECOPD patients. Subgroup analysis revealed that OSA may act as a risk factor for AECOPD patients with a BMI lower than 30 kg/m2.

Conclusions

There is no impact on short-term survival in AECOPD patients with OSA under intensive care unit (ICU) management and nursing.

The role of traditional Chinese medicine in postoperative wound complications of gastric cancer

Abstract

Due to the high risks of postoperative complications brought on by gastric cancer, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) as a commonly used therapy, has exerted its vital role in postoperative recovery care. In this sense, this meta-analysis was conducted to explore the related documents about TCM's impact on gastric cancer postoperative recovery. During the research, we explored a total of 1549 results from databases PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science (WoS). Thirty-two clinical randomized trials (RCTs) were then selected and analysed for this meta-analysis by using the software RevMan 5.4 (under PRISMA 2020 regulations), with a population of 3178 patients. Data prove that TCM therapy reduced the risks for postoperative complications exposure by an estimated average of 19% (95% CI). Among the complications, TCM therapy suppressed the risks of wound infection and incisional infections by 53% and 48% respectively. Meanwhile, the patient's wound healing duration exhibited a significant reduction compared to those without TCM treatment, with a difference at around 0.74 days (95% CI). TCM also exerted its potential to strengthen the patient's immune and health conditions, leading to a significantly promoted gastrointestinal function in the patients with a shorter duration to release first exhaustion and defecation compared to those with no TCM therapy. In addition, similar promoted phenomena also exist in those patients with TCM therapy in terms of their immunity and nutritional conditions. These facts all indicate a positive impact of TCM therapy in clinical applications.

Treatment withdrawal experiences of women with breast cancer: A phenomenological study

Abstract

Aim

To obtain an in-depth understanding of the lived experiences, values, and beliefs of Taiwanese women with breast cancer who withdrew from cancer treatment.

Background

Fear of side effects, negative experiences and personal beliefs were identified as reasons for withdrawing from cancer treatments. Body–mind consciousness and body autonomy play a crucial role in cancer treatment decisions.

Design

Descriptive phenomenological approach.

Methods

We conducted semi-structured, face-to-face and in-depth interviews with 16 women diagnosed with breast cancer. Participants were purposefully selected from the Cancer Registry database. Employing a phenomenological approach, our aim was to explore the lived experiences of these individuals. Data analysis followed Giorgi's five-step process. To ensure a comprehensive report the COREQ checklist was applied.

Findings

‘The Determination to Preserve Me’ is the essence of treatment withdrawal, identified by three themes and seven sub-themes. ‘Raising Body-Mind Consciousness’ was generated using body autonomy and preventing repeated psychological trauma from the participant's view. Their lifestyles, maintaining the family role, and returning to a normal trajectory help develop ‘Maintaining Stability for Being a Patient and a Family Carer’. ‘Self-Defending Against the Body Harm’ was generated by concerns about maintaining health and preventing harm.

Conclusion

Women's behaviours became transformed by suffering. Actions were influenced by physical and psychological distress, misconceptions about treatments, and appearance changes by self-determination through self-protection.

Relevance to clinical practice

Healthcare professionals should respect women's autonomy and work collaboratively to ensure their decision-making with accurate information and awareness of the potential risks and benefits of treatment withdrawal need to concern.

Effect of quality nursing intervention on wound healing in patients with burns: A meta‐analysis

Abstract

This meta-analysis aimed to explore the effects of quality nursing intervention on wound healing in patients with burns. A computerised search was conducted for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the effect of quality nursing intervention on wound healing in patients with burns in the PubMed, Embase, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang databases from the date of database inception to November 2023. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted data and performed quality assessment based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Stata 17.0 software was used for the data analysis. Twenty-nine RCTs involving 2637 patients with burns were included. The meta-analysis revealed that compared with conventional nursing, the implementation of quality nursing intervention in patients with burns significantly shortened the wound healing time (standardised mean difference [SMD] = −2.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −3.44 to −2.42, p < 0.001). The incidence of wound infections (odds ratio [OR] = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.07–0.27, p < 0.001) and complications (OR = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.11–0.23, p < 0.001) was also reduced significantly. This meta-analysis shows that applying quality nursing interventions in patients with burns can significantly shorten the wound healing time and reduce the incidence of wound infection and complications, thus promoting early patient recovery.

Effects of predictive nursing interventions on pressure ulcer in older bedridden patients: A meta‐analysis

Abstract

To evaluate the effect of predictive nursing interventions on pressure ulcers in elderly bedridden patients by meta-analysis. Applied computer searches of PubMed, Embase, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang databases for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the effect of predictive nursing in preventing pressure ulcers in elderly bedridden patients from the database inception to November 2023. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted data and performed quality assessment based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Stata 17.0 software was utilised for data analysis. Eighteen RCTs involving 6504 patients were finally included. The analysis revealed the implementation of predictive nursing interventions had a significant advantage in reducing the incidence of pressure ulcers in elderly bedridden patients compared with conventional nursing (odds ratio [OR] = 0.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.15–0.28, p < 0.001), while the patients' satisfaction with nursing care was higher (OR = 3.70, 95% CI: 2.99–4.57, p < 0.001). This study shows that the implementation of a predictive nursing interventions for elderly bedridden patients can effectively reduce the occurrence of pressure ulcers and significantly improve patients' satisfaction with nursing care, which is worthy of clinical promotion and application.

The comparison of fluidized positioners and traditional gel pads for skin protection in neurosurgical patients undergoing lateral and prone positions: A retrospective analysis with propensity score matching method

Abstract

To compare fluidized positioners and gel pads for skin protection in neurosurgery patients placed in lateral and prone positions. It is one of the major challenges that operating room nurses face in protecting the skin during the long duration of neurosurgery. Currently, there are increasing tools available to protect the skin under pressure, and various tools practice well in the clinic. Fluidized positioners are newly emerging protective pads that have been clinically effective in protecting the skin, but no studies have compared them to previous pads. This is a retrospective cohort study. Data from 706 patients who underwent neurosurgery between January 2018 and December 2021 were systemically reviewed. Patients undergoing long-term neurosurgery in the neurosurgical lateral and prone positions were divided into two groups: fluidized positioners or gel pads. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed for group balance (1:1 ratio) using the following baseline characteristics: age, gender, ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) classification, duration of surgery, surgical position and underlying disease. The incidence of decubitus, and length of stay (LOS) in the hospital were compared between the two groups. The results were obtained for 394 patients in the fluidized positioner group with a 3.8% incidence of pressure ulcers and 312 patients in the gel pad group with an 8% incidence of pressure ulcers, which were unbalanced in terms of gender, ASA, hypertension and diabetes data. After a PSM, patients were compared in terms of pressure ulcer incidence (3.7% vs. 7.8%, p = 0.034) and LOS (22.35 vs. 25.65 days, p < 0.001). Fluidized positioners can effectively reduce the incidence of pressure injury in lateral and prone positions of neurosurgery. The results of this study may contribute to the development of policies to prevent the development of pressure ulcers during neurosurgical procedures.

The effect of placing prophylactic abdominal drainage tube after hepatobiliary surgery on postoperative infection: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Abstract

Whether prophylactic abdominal drainage tube is routinely placed in patients after hepatobiliary surgery remains controversial. To evaluate the effect of prophylactic abdominal drainage tube placement after hepatobiliary surgery on postoperative infection. Randomized controlled trials on the placement of prophylactic abdominal drainage tube after hepatobiliary surgery were collected through a computerized search of PubMed, Embase, Conchrane Library and Web of Science databases, with a time range from the establishment of the database to August 2023. After two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted information, and evaluated the quality of the included studies. Finally, 13 studies were included, including 3620 patients, and the results showed that there was no statistically significant difference in postoperative infection rate between the drainage group (1840 patients and the non-drainage group [1783 patients] [relative risk, RR = 1.17, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.94–1.47, p = 0.16]. Compared with the drainage group, the incidence of infectious abdominal fluid in the non-drainage group was lower (RR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.57–2.80, p < 0.00001), and the incidence of postoperative bile leakage was lower (RR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.27–2.47, p < 0.001) and shorter hospital stays after surgery (mean difference = 1.27, 95% CI: 0.32–2.22, p = 0.009). In conclusion, placing a prophylactic abdominal drainage tube after hepatobiliary surgery does not reduce postoperative infection rates compared with no drainage.

Impact of fast‐track rehabilitation nursing on pressure ulcers and postoperative complications in patients with inter‐trochanteric fractures: A meta‐analysis

Abstract

We sought to investigate the effects of fast-track rehabilitation nursing on pressure ulcers, length of hospital stay and postoperative complications in patients with inter-trochanteric fractures (ITF). The PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and WanFang databases were searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published from inception to September 2023 on the application of fast-track rehabilitative nursing to ITF. Two investigators independently screened the literature and performed data extraction and quality assessments using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. The meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.4. Overall, 22 RCTs involving 1904 patients were included. Meta-analysis revealed that after fast-track rehabilitation nursing intervention in patients with ITF, the occurrence of pressure ulcers (odds ratio [OR]: 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18–0.47; p < 0.001) and postoperative complications (OR: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.14–0.26; p < 0.001) were significantly reduced and hospital stay was significantly shorter (standardised mean difference: –3.10; 95% CI: −3.82 to −2.38; p < 0.001). Nursing care for patients with ITF based on the concept of fast-track rehabilitation is conducive to reducing the occurrence of pressure ulcers, lowering the occurrence of complications, shortening the length of hospitalisation and promoting postoperative rehabilitation.

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