Nomogram for predicting surgical site infections in elderly patients after open lumbar spine surgery: A retrospective study

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop a nomogram to assess the risk of surgical site infection in elderly patients undergoing open lumbar spine surgery and explore related risk factors. We reviewed the records of 578 elderly patients who had undergone open lumbar spine surgery. The clinical parameters were subjected to lasso regression and logistic regression analyses. Subsequently, a nomogram was constructed to predict the risk of postoperative surgical site infection and validated using bootstrap resampling. A total of 578 patients were included in the analysis, of which 17 were diagnosed as postoperative surgical site infection. Following the final logistic regression analysis, obesity, hypoalbuminemia and drinking history were identified as independent risk factors and subsequently incorporated into the nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.879 (95% CI 0.769 ~ 0.989) after internal validation. The calibration curve exhibited a high level of consistency. Decision curve analysis revealed that this nomogram had greater clinical value when the risk threshold for surgical site infection occurrence was >1% and <89%. We had developed a nomogram for predicting the risk of postoperative surgical site infection in elderly patients who had undergone open lumbar spine surgery. Validation using bootstrap resampling demonstrated excellent discrimination and calibration, indicating that the nomogram may hold potential clinical utility as a simple predictive tool for healthcare professionals.