We aim to use an agent-based model to accurately predict the spread of COVID-19 within multiple US state prisons.

We developed a semistochastic transmission model of COVID-19.

Five regional state-owned prisons within North Carolina.

Several thousand incarcerated individuals.

We measured (1) the observed and simulated average daily infection rate of COVID-19 for each prison studied in 30-day intervals, (2) the observed and simulated average daily recovery rate from COVID-19 for each prison studied in 30-day intervals, (3) the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of each prison’s summary statistics and the simulated results and (4) the parameter estimates of key predictors used in the model.

The COVID-19 pandemic disparately affected incarcerated populations in the USA, with severe morbidity and infection rates across the country. In response, many predictive models were developed to help mitigate risk. However, these models did not feature the systemic factors of prisons, such as vaccination rates, populations and capacities (to determine overcrowding) and design and were not generalisable to other prisons.

An agent-based model that used geospatial contact networks and compartmental transmission dynamics was built to create predictive microsimulations that simulated COVID-19 outbreaks within five North Carolinian regional prisons between July 2020 and June 2021. The model used the characteristics of an outbreak’s initial case size, a given facility’s capacity and its incarcerated vaccination rate as additional parameters alongside traditional susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered transmission dynamics. By fitting the model to each prison’s data using approximate Bayesian computation methods, we derived parameter estimates that reasonably modelled real-world results. These individualised estimates were then averaged to produce generalised parameter estimates for North Carolina state prisons overall.

Our model had a mean average MAPE score of 23.0 across all facilities, meaning that it reasonably forecasted facilities’ average daily positive and recovery rates of COVID-19. Our model estimated an average incarcerated vaccination rate of 54% across all prisons (with a 95% CI of ±0.12). In addition, the prisons of this study were estimated to be operating at 90% of their capacity on average (95% CI ±0.16). Given the high levels of COVID-19 observed in these prisons, which averaged over one-third positive tests on respective 1-day maxima, we conclude that vaccination levels were not sufficient in curbing COVID-19 outbreaks, and high occupancy levels likely exacerbated the spread of COVID-19 within prisons.

In addition, data gaps in facilities without recorded daily testing resulted in poor spread predictions, demonstrating how important consistent data release practices are in incarcerated settings for accurate tracking and prediction of outbreaks.

The findings of this study better quantify how spatial contact networks and facility-level characteristics unique to congregate living facilities can be used to predict infectious disease spread. Our approach also highlights the need for increased vaccination efforts and potential capacity reductions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in prisons.

To investigate the efficacy of two volumes of acute isometric wall squat exercise on pain sensitivity (primary outcome: pressure pain threshold (PPT)) and intensity (secondary outcome) in adults with knee osteoarthritis.

A parallel-group randomised controlled trial.

Outpatient physiotherapy clinics at hospitals in Saudi Arabia.

Participants (n = 90; mean (SD) age 49.0 (13.0) years) with chronic knee osteoarthritis, diagnosed by a specialist orthopaedic physician using radiographic evidence and clinical judgement, were recruited via two tertiary hospitals in Saudi Arabia.

Participants were stratified by sex and randomly allocated to one of three groups: isometric single-repetition wall-squat (ISO-SR; one repetition of a 3-min wall squat or to volitional fatigue at a 100° knee joint angle), isometric multiple-repetition wall-squat (ISO-MR; three repetitions of the same intervention) and control (quiet sitting for 7 min).

PPT was measured at the calf (primary site of interest), lumbar spine and forearm using a pressure algometer. Pain intensity was assessed using a visual analogue scale. Primary analyses compared changes between intervention and control groups. All participants were included in the ITT analysis.

The ISO-MR group had higher mean PPT ratings immediately postintervention in the calf (mean difference=9.4 (95% CI 5.6 to 13.2), p

Both the ISO-SR and ISO-MR exercises to volitional fatigue reduced pain sensitivity in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Neither exercise volume changed clinical pain intensity.

ClinicalTrials.gov registry (ID: NCT05605444).

To determine age-specific and age-standardised incidence trends of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) or rheumatic heart disease (RHD) among Indigenous Western Australians aged less than 35 years of age.

A population-based retrospective cohort study with linked data analysis.

Western Australian hospital admissions (1996–2022) and RHD notifications to the state-based register (2011–2015).

Patients, both Indigenous and non-Indigenous aged

Of 1746 incident ARF/RHD cases, 1526 (87%) were Indigenous peoples, with the highest rates observed in patients aged 5–14 years, with an annual estimated increase of 4.3% (95% CI 3.2% to 5.2%). The 0–4 years age group experienced an annual increase in incidence rates of 4.8% (95% CI 1.4% to 8.2%). Overall, Indigenous patients experienced an annual increase of 1.9% (95% CI 1.3% to 2.6%) from 1996 to 2022. However, most cases (n=894) were identified after multiple significant policy developments (2011–2022) with an annual increase of 5.7% (95% CI 3.7% to 7.5%) for this period.

Increasing trends of incident ARF/RHD were observed in Indigenous patients aged under 15 years, with the greatest annual increments observed after policy implementation for disease reporting and awareness in the period from 2011 to 2022. Improvement in case ascertainment of ARF/RHD may be contributing towards increasing trends with improved reporting and monitoring of incident cases in very young Indigenous Australians more recently.

Radioembolisation (RE) is gaining traction as a robust treatment option for patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) across all cancer stages. RE allows the delivery of targeted high-dose radiation directly to tumours, with relative sparing of the surrounding liver tissue. Traditionally, radiation has been delivered using ⁹⁰Yttrium ([⁹⁰Y]Y)-labelled microspheres, either glass or resin. The success of RE is dependent on the dose delivered to the tumour. When using [⁹⁰Y]Y microspheres, dose prediction is calculated through a ^99mTechnitium ([^99mTc]Tc)-macroaggregated albumin (MAA) scan, which allows the calculation of the dose to be administered to the tumour. However, [^99mTc]Tc-MAA is not a true surrogate of [⁹⁰Y]Y microspheres, and this will impact on the final dose delivered. [¹⁶⁶Ho]Ho, like [⁹⁰Y]Y, is a beta emitter but unlike [⁹⁰Y]Y also emits gamma-radiation, allowing for quantitative nuclear imaging. The primary aim of this pilot study was to investigate the safety and efficacy of dosimetry-based individualised ¹⁶⁶Holmium ([¹⁶⁶Ho]Ho-RE) in patients with HCC.

15 eligible participants will be recruited to receive [¹⁶⁶Ho]Ho-RE. The primary objective is to establish the toxicity profile of dosimetry-based individualised [¹⁶⁶Ho]Ho-RE. The secondary objective is to assess efficacy as measured by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (mRECIST) and Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) 1.1 criteria. Additional exploratory objectives include quality of life assessment and identification of a radiomic signature of response. The results from this study will be combined with the prospective iHEPAR study to form a larger analysis.

The study has received approval from the East Midlands—Nottingham 1 Research Ethics Committee—approval number 23/EM/0239. The study will be performed in compliance with the Declaration of Helsinki and the principles of Good Clinical Practice. Signed informed consent will be obtained from each patient before study entry. The results will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT06302400.

Detecting chronic kidney disease (CKD) early can provide opportunities to optimise native kidney function, prevent further decline and plan for timely kidney transplantation if required. Understanding how children are found to have kidney disease and present to specialist kidney care may help tailor interventions to support a timelier diagnosis. The aim of this study was to examine the pathway to specialist care for UK children who present late to nephrology with advanced CKD (requiring kidney replacement therapy within 90 days of first nephrology review) to determine whether there are modifiable aspects to presentation and diagnosis.

Semi-structured, in-depth qualitative study. A topic guide based on the theoretical framework of health behaviour by Scott et al, The Model of Pathways to Treatment, was developed to capture differences in symptom appraisal and help-seeking before reaching nephrology care.

UK paediatric nephrology units (n=4) between December 2017 and December 2020.

Children and young people who experienced a late presentation of CKD and their parents/carers.

Twenty-two participants participated across 19 interviews: seven children (two male, median age 16, IQR 13–17.5 years) and 15 parents. A typology of presentation to healthcare was identified: commonly, families reported repeated cycles of primary care help-seeking before onward referral to specialist care, although long appraisal intervals were also noted. In all cases, secondary care referral led to onward nephrology care involvement. Narratives highlighted that not all cases of late presentation could be avoided.

A typology of symptom appraisal and help-seeking can inform interventions to improve CKD detection. Interventions that support symptom appraisal and consideration of targeted CKD testing in children may help reduce appraisal and help-seeking intervals, respectively.

Practice guidelines recommend addressing patient non-medical drivers of health such as access to nutritious food and transportation as part of whole-person care. Emergent electronic health record (EHR)-based tools can enable non-medical needs care coordination, but adoption commonly faces workflow and infrastructure barriers. Targeted implementation support strategies (eg, training, practice facilitation) can enhance technology adoption in healthcare settings, but no prior research has assessed if implementation strategies can improve how care managers use enabling technologies for non-medical needs care coordination. This study will test whether providing implementation support to primary care health centre care management teams improves the adoption of EHR-based enabling technologies to address patients’ non-medical needs.

This hybrid implementation-effectiveness type 2 pragmatic trial has a mixed methods design. The primary outcomes include: (1) Whether patients enrolled in care management programmes have been screened for unmet non-medical health-related needs and (2) Whether patients with identified unmet non-medical health-related needs received a referral to a community organisation to address their need. The secondary outcomes include: (1) Whether referrals for financial-related non-medical needs had a documented outcome in the EHR, such as successful connection to services, service unavailability or other disposition statuses, (2) Whether the referral outcomes indicated ‘successful connection to services’ and (3) Clinical markers including hypertension and diabetes control. Formative evaluation of barriers and facilitators to using EHR tools to conduct non-medical needs screening, referrals and tracking of receipt of services will include semi-structured interviews and a ‘guided tour’ of enabling technology used by care managers. A modified Delphi process will then inform the development of a set of implementation strategies for inclusion in the intervention. The intervention will be piloted in three health centres, refined, then tested in a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial in 20 health centres.

We obtained ethics approval for all study activities from Advarra Institutional Review Board (registration number #00000971). Results will be disseminated to Health Centres and Health Centre network nationally at meetings and we will disseminate to researchers via manuscripts in peer-reviewed journals and scientific meetings.

NCT06489002.

IPE is defined as ‘occasions when two or more professions learn with, from and about each other to improve collaboration and the quality of care’2 (p: 6). Its inclusion in preregistration nursing programmes in the UK is a mandatory requirement3 and is believed to benefit both patients and communities,4 particularly in reducing human errors and increasing patient safety.5 Kirkpatrick’s model6...

With the COVID-19 pandemic driving people into social isolation, causing a financial crisis and creating uncertainty, individuals were at an even greater risk of experiencing negative mental health outcomes. Individuals who identify as women living with diabetes mellitus (DM) of low socioeconomic status (SES) are potentially at increased risk of negative mental health outcomes secondary to health-related risks of COVID-19, as well as financial barriers to access to medications and diabetes-care supplies.

The objective of this scoping review is to investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the mental health of those who identify as women living with DM of low SES including the consequences of public health measures put in place to stop the spread of the virus. The review aims to identify what is known about the impact of COVID-19 on this and identify potential areas for further investigation.

The scoping review protocol was developed with guidance from the framework created by Arksey and O’Malley and refinements from the Joanna Briggs Institute and Levac et al published studies employing experimental and correlational designs to collect quantitative and/or qualitative data will be considered. Search strategies were developed for the MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO databases to identify relevant sources. Article titles and abstracts will be screened for eligibility by two independent reviewers. Full-text review will be conducted by two reviewers with a third reviewer being included if disagreement must be resolved. Data extraction will be conducted by two reviewers, one extraction and one quality check, and a third will resolve conflict if necessary. Data will be synthesised and reported in a narrative structure that provides a thematic analysis of the currently available literature.

As this is a scoping review, there are no ethical approval requirements. There is to be a full publication of findings and analysis in a peer-reviewed journal.

Relational continuity of care (RCC) refers to the sustained therapeutic relationship between a patient and a clinician, which fosters trust, enhances communication and facilitates the accumulation of knowledge about the patient. RCC is associated with enhanced patient outcomes, reduced hospital admissions, lower mortality rates, decreased healthcare costs and improved patient experience. Despite these benefits, reorganisations within the NHS and workforce challenges have led to an increased reliance on multidisciplinary and part-time working, resulting in fragmented care and a decline in RCC. Our study aims to explore who needs RCC, under what circumstances, to what extent and why, with the goal of informing optimal implementation strategies.

We will conduct a realist review to develop an evidence-based programme theory explaining the mechanisms underlying RCC, the populations that benefit most, the contextual factors influencing RCC and effective care models. Following Pawson’s five iterative stages, we will: (1) Locate existing theories, (2) Search for relevant evidence, (3) Select appropriate articles, (4) Extract and organise data and (5) Synthesise findings to draw conclusions. A stakeholder advisory group, comprising policymakers, healthcare professionals, public contributors and patients, will be engaged throughout the process. We will adhere to Realist And Meta-narrative Evidence Synthesis: Evolving Standards (RAMESES) for realist reviews to ensure methodological rigor.

Our findings will inform practical, evidence-based recommendations for optimising RCC within general practice. Outputs will include peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, plain English summaries, social media infographics, a short video and end-of-study events. Collaborations with stakeholders and public involvement will ensure both accessibility and impact. Ethical approval is not required for this review.

Studies show conflicting evidence regarding individuals’ healthcare costs following bariatric surgeries. This study aimed to evaluate the healthcare costs of individuals with obesity before and after bariatric surgery and compare them to a matched control group.

Retrospective cohort study.

Primary care nationwide.

This retrospective cohort study included all adults insured by Maccabi Healthcare Services who underwent bariatric surgery between 2015 and 2019 and a control group matched by body mass index, age, gender and socioeconomic status (case n=10 178).

We collected each patient’s annual costs for six consecutive years (3 years before and after the index date). We used generalised linear mixed models to assess the interaction between time (presurgery vs postsurgery) and group (bariatric vs control) on healthcare costs during the second and third years before and after surgery, adjusting for covariates not matched between groups, including smoking status, ethnicity and comorbidities. The analyses were made in three age groups: young adults (18–39), adults (40–64) and older adults (65 or more).

From 2015–2019, 10 178 bariatric surgeries were performed (51.9% sleeve gastrectomy, 36.7% bypass surgeries and 11.4% combined surgeries). Total healthcare costs increased after the index date in both the bariatric and control groups, with a greater absolute increase in the bariatric group; however, the between-group differences in cost changes were not statistically significant (p=0.987 for younger adults, p=0.311 for adults and p=0.771 for older adults).

While healthcare costs increased in both groups following the index date, the lack of a significant difference between the bariatric and control groups suggests that bariatric surgery may not lead to short-term cost savings. Ongoing long-term follow-up is essential to fully understand its economic impact.

Individuals living with severe mental illness (SMI) are at a significantly higher risk of mortality. This mixed-methods systematic review identifies and explores factors, including access inequalities to annual health checks (AHCs), for people living with SMI sharing protected characteristics in the UK, as identified in Core20PLUS5.

Mixed-methods systematic review.

MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, ASSIA, Google Scholar and the grey literature were searched from 1 January 2004 to 30 January 2025.

Inclusion criteria were adults >18 years of age living with SMI. We included studies of AHCs, short health screening interventions, health promotion interventions, considering or aiming to improve uptake and/or access to screening for people living with SMI. We included mixed-methods and quantitative studies: randomised controlled trials, non-randomised controlled studies, cohort studies, cross-sectional studies and process evaluations. We also included qualitative studies.

Two reviewers independently assessed the evidence for inclusion using the eligibility criteria at title, abstract and at full-text screening. Quality Assessment with Diverse Studies was used for methodological quality. Analysis used Levesque’s Conceptual Framework of Access as an a priori framework and dimensions of equality from Core20PLUS5 and PROGRESS PLUS. Separate and independent quantitative and qualitative narrative syntheses and integration of the evidence from both occurred.

36 studies were included. Five studies applied reasonable adjustments to increase access to AHCs but lacked evaluation, controls and comparisons. 26 studies failed to discuss deprivation or ethnicity and only 6 studies discussed barriers and facilitators of access to AHCs for people of different ethnic, linguistic or cultural backgrounds. There was no evidence for interventions improving access to AHCs. Access focused primarily on dimensions of services, over abilities to access AHCs for people living with SMI.

There are access inequalities to AHCs for people living with SMI sharing protected characteristics. Robust research is urgently needed to identify, modify and ameliorate barriers to the policy recommended AHCs.

CRD42023437905.

Marginalised populations—such as racialised groups, low-income individuals, newcomers and those in rural areas—disproportionately experience severe diabetes-related complications, including diabetic foot ulcers, retinopathy and amputations, due to systemic inequities and limited access to care. Although community-based programmes address cultural and accessibility barriers, their isolation from mainstream healthcare systems leads to fragmented care and missed opportunities for early intervention.

Artificial intelligence (AI)-powered technologies can enhance accessibility and personalisation, particularly for underserved populations. However, integrating AI into community settings remains underexplored, with socioethical concerns around inclusion, diversity, equity and accessibility requiring urgent attention.

This realist review aims to examine how, why and under what circumstances AI applications can be effectively integrated into community-based diabetic care for marginalised populations. The review will develop a programme theory to guide ethical, inclusive and effective AI implementation to ensure AI-driven innovations address health disparities and promote culturally sensitive, accessible care for all.

Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analyses (PRISMA) extension for Reviews guidelines, this realist review will systematically search MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane library, Google Scholar and Scopus, alongside grey literature. A two-stage screening process will identify eligible studies, and data extraction will use a developed tool. Synthesis will employ realist logic, analysing relationships between contexts (eg, organisational capacity), mechanisms (eg, AI functionalities) and outcomes (eg, reduced disparities).

Ethics approval is not required for conducting this realist review. Ethics approval will be obtained from the University of Toronto; however, following the completion of the realist review for patients and community members’ engagement to support knowledge mobilisation and dissemination to ensure practical application and reciprocity.

This protocol was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42025636284).