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AnteayerPLOS ONE Medicine&Health

A direct comparison of theory-driven and machine learning prediction of suicide: A meta-analysis

by Katherine M. Schafer, Grace Kennedy, Austin Gallyer, Philip Resnik

Theoretically-driven models of suicide have long guided suicidology; however, an approach employing machine learning models has recently emerged in the field. Some have suggested that machine learning models yield improved prediction as compared to theoretical approaches, but to date, this has not been investigated in a systematic manner. The present work directly compares widely researched theories of suicide (i.e., BioSocial, Biological, Ideation-to-Action, and Hopelessness Theories) to machine learning models, comparing the accuracy between the two differing approaches. We conducted literature searches using PubMed, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar, gathering effect sizes from theoretically-relevant constructs and machine learning models. Eligible studies were longitudinal research articles that predicted suicide ideation, attempts, or death published prior to May 1, 2020. 124 studies met inclusion criteria, corresponding to 330 effect sizes. Theoretically-driven models demonstrated suboptimal prediction of ideation (wOR = 2.87; 95% CI, 2.65–3.09; k = 87), attempts (wOR = 1.43; 95% CI, 1.34–1.51; k = 98), and death (wOR = 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01–1.15; k = 78). Generally, Ideation-to-Action (wOR = 2.41, 95% CI = 2.21–2.64, k = 60) outperformed Hopelessness (wOR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.71–1.96, k = 98), Biological (wOR = 1.04; 95% CI .97–1.11, k = 100), and BioSocial (wOR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.11–1.58, k = 6) theories. Machine learning provided superior prediction of ideation (wOR = 13.84; 95% CI, 11.95–16.03; k = 33), attempts (wOR = 99.01; 95% CI, 68.10–142.54; k = 27), and death (wOR = 17.29; 95% CI, 12.85–23.27; k = 7). Findings from our study indicated that across all theoretically-driven models, prediction of suicide-related outcomes was suboptimal. Notably, among theories of suicide, theories within the Ideation-to-Action framework provided the most accurate prediction of suicide-related outcomes. When compared to theoretically-driven models, machine learning models provided superior prediction of suicide ideation, attempts, and death.

Establishment of reference intervals for Platelet Function Analyzer -100 closure time in Algerian adults

by Malika Belkacemi, Yassine Merad, Mohamed Amine Merbouh

Introduction

The Platelet Function Analyzer-100 (PFA-100) is a point of care instrument that simulates plug formation under high shear flow. The PFA-100 measures the time required to occlude the aperture in a biochemically active cartridge and is expressed in a term of closure time (CT). In Algeria, the reference values used in clinical laboratories are of Western origin. However, ethnic, genetic, dietary environmental, and diet differences between populations may affect reference intervals. We established the reference intervals of PFA-100 closure times in healthy Algerian adults according to the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry method, and we compared them with those of Western and Asian countries.

Material and methods

We enrolled 303 healthy blood donors in the study. 218 subjects met inclusion criteria. We analyzed the blood sample on the PFA-100 for CT with both the collagen epinephrine and collagen ADP cartridges.

Results

The reference intervals of PFA-100 collagen epinephrine CT and PFA-100 collagen ADP CT were 91–207 seconds and 71–144 seconds, respectively. Compared to Western and Asian populations, there were significant differences. The upper limits of CTs were higher for Algerians in this study. Our findings show that many healthy Algerians would be incorrectly identified as having a primary hemostasis abnormality according to the reference intervals of the manufacturer and scientific literature.

Conclusion

This report provides the first reference intervals for PFA-100 CTs in healthy Algerian adults. These results improve the accuracy of diagnosis and patient care in Algeria.

Recommending encounters according to the sociodemographic characteristics of patient strata can reduce risks from type 2 diabetes

by Han Ye, Ujjal Kumar Mukherjee, Dilip Chhajed, Jason Hirsbrunner, Collin Roloff

Objectives

Physician encounters with patients with type 2 diabetes act as motivation for self-management and lifestyle adjustments that are indispensable for diabetes treatment. We elucidate the sociodemographic sources of variation in encounter usage and the impact of encounter usage on glucose control, which can be used to recommend encounter usage for different sociodemographic strata of patients to reduce risks from Type 2 diabetes.

Data and methods

We analyzed data from a multi-facility clinic in the Midwestern United States on 2124 patients with type 2 diabetes, from 95 ZIP codes. A zero-inflated Poisson model was used to estimate the effects of various ZIP-code level sociodemographic variables on the encounter usage. A multinomial logistic regression model was built to estimate the effects of physical and telephonic encounters on patients’ glucose level transitions. Results from the two models were combined in marginal effect analyses.

Results and conclusions

Conditional on patients’ clinical status, demographics, and insurance status, significant inequality in patient encounters exists across ZIP codes with varying sociodemographic characteristics. One additional physical encounter in a six-month period marginally increases the probability of transition from a diabetic state to a pre-diabetic state by 4.3% and from pre-diabetic to the non-diabetic state by 3.2%. Combined marginal effect analyses illustrate that a ZIP code in the lower quartile of high school graduate percentage among all ZIP codes has 1 fewer physical encounter per six months marginally compared to a ZIP code at the upper quartile, which gives 5.4% average increase in the probability of transitioning from pre-diabetic to diabetic. Our results suggest that policymakers can target particular patient groups who may have inadequate encounters to engage in diabetes care, based on their immediate environmental sociodemographic characteristics, and design programs to increase their encounters to achieve better care outcomes.

Prediction of early recurrence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after resection

by Toshitaka Sugawara, Daisuke Ban, Jo Nishino, Shuichi Watanabe, Aya Maekawa, Yoshiya Ishikawa, Keiichi Akahoshi, Kosuke Ogawa, Hiroaki Ono, Atsushi Kudo, Shinji Tanaka, Minoru Tanabe

Background

Even after curative resection, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients suffer a high rate of recurrence. There is an unmet need to predict which patients will experience early recurrence after resection in order to adjust treatment strategies.

Methods

Data of patients with resectable PDAC undergoing surgical resection between January 2005 and September 2018 were reviewed to stratify for early recurrence defined as occurring within 6 months of resection. Preoperative data including demographics, tumor markers, blood immune-inflammatory factors and clinicopathological data were examined. We employed Elastic Net, a sparse modeling method, to construct models predicting early recurrence using these multiple preoperative factors. As a result, seven preoperative factors were selected: age, duke pancreatic monoclonal antigen type 2 value, neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio, systemic immune-inflammation index, tumor size, lymph node metastasis and is peripancreatic invasion. Repeated 10-fold cross-validations were performed, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the usefulness of the models.

Results

A total of 136 patients was included in the final analysis, of which 35 (34%) experienced early recurrence. Using Elastic Net, we found that 7 of 14 preoperative factors were useful for the predictive model. The mean AUC of all models constructed in the repeated validation was superior to the standard marker CA 19–9 (0.718 vs 0.657), whereas the AUC of the model constructed from the entire patient cohort was 0.767. Decision curve analysis showed that the models had a higher mean net benefit across the majority of the range of reasonable threshold probabilities.

Conclusion

A model using multiple preoperative factors can improve prediction of early resectable PDAC recurrence.

Family as a health promotion setting: A scoping review of conceptual models of the health-promoting family

by Valerie Michaelson, Kelly A. Pilato, Colleen M. Davison

Background

The family is a key setting for health promotion. Contemporary health promoting family models can establish scaffolds for shaping health behaviors and can be useful tools for education and health promotion.

Objectives

The objective of this scoping review is to provide details as to how conceptual and theoretical models of the health promoting potential of the family are being used in health promotion contexts.

Design

Guided by PRISMA ScR guidelines, we used a three-step search strategy to find relevant papers. This included key-word searching electronic databases (Medline, PSycINFO, Embase, and CINAHL), searching the reference lists of included studies, and intentionally searching for grey literature (in textbooks, dissertations, thesis manuscripts and reports.)

Results

After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, the overall search generated 113 included manuscripts/chapters with 118 unique models. Through our analysis of these models, three main themes were apparent: 1) ecological factors are central components to most models or conceptual frameworks; 2) models were attentive to cultural and other diversities, allowing room for a wide range of differences across family types, and for different and ever-expanding social norms and roles; and 3) the role of the child as a passive recipient of their health journey rather than as an active agent in promoting their own family health was highlighted as an important gap in many of the identified models.

Conclusions

This review contributes a synthesis of contemporary literature in this area and supports the priority of ecological frameworks and diversity of family contexts. It encourages researchers, practitioners and family stakeholders to recognize the value of the child as an active agent in shaping the health promoting potential of their family context.

Non-invasive adapted N-95 mask sampling captures variation in viral particles expelled by COVID-19 patients: Implications in understanding SARS-CoV2 transmission

by Kalpana Sriraman, Ambreen Shaikh, Swapneil Parikh, Shreevatsa Udupa, Nirjhar Chatterjee, Jayanthi Shastri, Nerges Mistry

Infectious respiratory particles expelled by SARS-CoV-2 positive patients are attributed to be the key driver of COVID-19 transmission. Understanding how and by whom the virus is transmitted can help implement better disease control strategies. Here we have described the use of a noninvasive mask sampling method to detect and quantify SARS-CoV-2 RNA in respiratory particles expelled by COVID-19 patients and discussed its relationship to transmission risk. Respiratory particles of 31 symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 positive patients and 31 asymptomatic healthy volunteers were captured on N-95 masks layered with a gelatin membrane in a 30-minute process that involved talking/reading, coughing, and tidal breathing. SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA was detected and quantified using rRT-PCR in the mask and in concomitantly collected nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) samples. The data were analyzed with respect to patient demographics and clinical presentation. Thirteen of 31(41.9%) patients showed SARS-COV-2 positivity in both the mask and NPS samples, while 16 patients were mask negative but NPS positive. Two patients were both mask and NPS negative. All healthy volunteers except one were mask and NPS negative. The mask positive patients had significantly lower NPS Ct value (26) compared to mask negative patients (30.5) and were more likely to be rapid antigen test positive. The mask positive patients could be further grouped into low emitters (expelling 1000 viral copies). The study presents evidence for variation in emission of SARS-CoV-2 virus particles by COVID-19 patients reflecting differences in infectivity and transmission risk among individuals. The results conform to reported secondary infection rates and transmission and also suggest that mask sampling could be explored as an effective tool to assess individual transmission risks, at different time points and during different activities.

Home care aides’ attitudes to training on oral health care

by Wei-Chung Hsu, Yen-Ping Hsieh, Shou-Jen Lan

This study investigated home care aides’ (HCAs) oral health care experience, knowledge, and their intention to receive professional training, to explain and predict factors of their intention to receive such training. This cross-sectional study collected data through a structured questionnaire. HCAs affiliated with home care agencies in Taichung, Taiwan were recruited through purposive sampling. A total of 487 questionnaires were distributed from September to December 2015 with 280 valid responses collected (57.4%).This study predicted the factors of HCAs’ intention to receive oral health care training through a decision tree analysis. The decision tree model classified the respondents with an accuracy of 77.5%. The optimal predictor variable was oral health care knowledge (χ2 = 66.662, p 2 = 7.979, p = 0.007). Among those who answered Yes, 92.9% were in the interested group, as were 76.5% of those who answered No. It is recommended to add “disease and oral care-related content” and “safety protection, assessment, and usage of oral care tools during practical oral care process” to the oral healthcare training course content for HCAs in order to improve HCAs’ oral healthcare knowledge and oral care skills. These research findings are valuable and may be taken into account in the future development of the in-service educational training of oral healthcare for HCAs.

Prevalence of stunting and associated factors among public primary school pupils of Bahir Dar city, Ethiopia: School-based cross-sectional study

by Getasew Mulat Bantie, Amare Alamirew Aynie, Kidist Hailu Akenew, Mahlet Tilahun Belete, Eyerusalem Teshome Tena, Genet Gebreselasie Gebretsadik, Aynalem Nebebe Tsegaw, Tigist Birru Woldemariam, Ashenafi Abate Woya, Amare Alemu Melese, Agumas Fentahun Ayalew, Getenet Dessie

Background

Stunting is a well-established child-health indicator of chronic malnutrition, which reliably gives a picture of the past nutritional history and the prevailing environmental and socioeconomic circumstances.

Objective

To investigate the prevalence of stunting and associated factors among public primary school children of the Bahir Dar city.

Method

A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to June 2019. Data were coded and entered into the Epi-Data and exported to SPSS version 23 software. The pupil was stunted if the height- for-age was ≤ -2 SDs from the median growth standards according to the WHO. A descriptive summary was computed using frequency, percent, mean, median and standard deviation. A simple logistic regression model was fitted to identify associated factors between the independent variables and the dependent variable at a 95% confidence interval (CI) and p-value Results

370 primary school pupils were included in the study with the mean age of 10.15 (± 2.23 SD) years. 51.6% of the pupils were females. The total prevalence of stunting was 15.13% (95%CI; 11%, 19%). The burden of stunting was higher in the age group of 11 years and older. Pupil’s age older than 11 years (AOR = 15. 6; 95%CI; 3.31, 73.45; p-value Conclusion

The prevalence of stunting was relatively lower than the regional estimated stunting level. Older age and male sex were significantly associated with stunting.

<i>In vivo</i> assessment of a delayed release formulation of larazotide acetate indicated for celiac disease using a porcine model

by Hiroko Enomoto, James Yeatts, Liliana Carbajal, B. Radha Krishnan, Jay P. Madan, Sandeep Laumas, Anthony T. Blikslager, Kristen M. Messenger

There is no FDA approved therapy for the treatment of celiac disease (CeD), aside from avoidance of dietary gluten. Larazotide acetate (LA) is a first in class oral peptide developed as a tight junction regulator, which is a lead candidate for management of CeD. A delayed release formulation was tested in vitro and predicted release in the mid duodenum and jejunum, the target site of CeD. The aim of this study was to follow the concentration versus time profile of orally administered LA in the small intestine using a porcine model. A sensitive liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry method was developed to quantify LA concentrations in porcine intestinal fluid samples. Oral dosing of LA (1 mg total) in overnight fasted pigs resulted in time dependent appearance of LA in the distal duodenum and proximal jejunum. Peak LA concentrations (0.32–1.76 μM) occurred at 1 hour in the duodenum and in proximal jejunum following oral dosing, with the continued presence of LA (0.02–0.47 μM) in the distal duodenum and in proximal jejunum (0.00–0.43 μM) from 2 to 4 hours following oral dosing. The data shows that LA is available in detectable concentrations at the site of CeD.

Comprehensive mutagenesis identifies the peptide repertoire of a p53 T-cell receptor mimic antibody that displays no toxicity in mice transgenic for human HLA-A*0201

by Iva Trenevska, Amanda P. Anderson, Carol Bentley, Tasneem Hassanali, Sarah Wiblin, Shaun Maguire, Francesco Pezzella, Alison H. Banham, Demin Li

T-cell receptor mimic (TCRm) antibodies have expanded the repertoire of antigens targetable by monoclonal antibodies, to include peptides derived from intracellular proteins that are presented by major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) molecules on the cell surface. We have previously used this approach to target p53, which represents a valuable target for cancer immunotherapy because of the high frequency of its deregulation by mutation or other mechanisms. The T1-116C TCRm antibody targets the wild type p5365-73 peptide (RMPEAAPPV) presented by HLA-A*0201 (HLA-A2) and exhibited in vivo efficacy against triple receptor negative breast cancer xenografts. Here we report a comprehensive mutational analysis of the p53 RMPEAAPPV peptide to assess the T1-116C epitope and its peptide specificity. Antibody binding absolutely required the N-terminal arginine residue, while amino acids in the center of the peptide contributed little to specificity. Data mining the immune epitope database with the T1-116C binding consensus and validation of peptide recognition using the T2 stabilization assay identified additional tumor antigens targeted by T1-116C, including WT1, gp100, Tyrosinase and NY-ESO-1. Most peptides recognized by T1-116C were conserved in mice and human HLA-A2 transgenic mice showed no toxicity when treated with T1-116C in vivo. We conclude that comprehensive validation of TCRm antibody target specificity is critical for assessing their safety profile.

Determinants of dietary diversity practice among pregnant women attending antenatal clinic at Wachemo University Nigist Eleni Mohammed memorial referral hospital, Southern Ethiopia

by Romedan Delil, Beakal Zinab, Hassen Mosa, Ritbano Ahmed, Habtamu Hassen

Background

Dietary diversity has continued to receive a global attention among pregnant women as they have been considered susceptible to malnutrition because of their increased nutrient demands. Thus, a variety of foodstuffs in their diet are necessary for ensuring the appropriateness of their nutrient consumptions. This study, therefore assessed the dietary diversity practice and its determinants among pregnant women attending antenatal clinic at Wachemo University Nigist Eleni Mohammed memorial referral hospital, Southern Ethiopia.

Methods

A hospital-based cross-sectional study was carried out on 303 participants from May 1 to June 15, 2019 using a systematic random sampling technique. Data were entered and analyzed using SPSS (version24.0). Both bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to decide the association of each explanatory variable with the outcome variable. Odds ratio with their 95% confidence intervals was calculated to identify the presence and strength of association, and statistical significance was declared at p Results

The overall prevalence of adequate dietary diversity practices was observed to be 42.6%. The determinants of dietary diversity practice included earning of a monthly income ≥2000 Ethiopian birr (AOR = 1.62; 95%CI:1.19–2.85), maternal educational level (AOR = 2.50; 95% CI: 1.05–6.12), educational status of partner (AOR = 2.45; 95% CI:1.20, 9.57), having a partner who was a government employee (AOR = 4; 95% CI:2.18–7.21), and the receiving of nutritional information (AOR = 1.35; 95% CI: 3.39–6.94).

Conclusions

The study indicated that the overall consumption of adequate dietary diversity practice was found to be low. Therefore, increasing household income, enhancing nutritional related information, advancing the academic level of both wife and her partner is essential to improve women’s dietary diversity practice.

Simple discrete-time self-exciting models can describe complex dynamic processes: A case study of COVID-19

by Raiha Browning, Deborah Sulem, Kerrie Mengersen, Vincent Rivoirard, Judith Rousseau

Hawkes processes are a form of self-exciting process that has been used in numerous applications, including neuroscience, seismology, and terrorism. While these self-exciting processes have a simple formulation, they can model incredibly complex phenomena. Traditionally Hawkes processes are a continuous-time process, however we enable these models to be applied to a wider range of problems by considering a discrete-time variant of Hawkes processes. We illustrate this through the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a substantive case study. While alternative models, such as compartmental and growth curve models, have been widely applied to the COVID-19 epidemic, the use of discrete-time Hawkes processes allows us to gain alternative insights. This paper evaluates the capability of discrete-time Hawkes processes by modelling daily mortality counts as distinct phases in the COVID-19 outbreak. We first consider the initial stage of exponential growth and the subsequent decline as preventative measures become effective. We then explore subsequent phases with more recent data. Various countries that have been adversely affected by the epidemic are considered, namely, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. These countries are all unique concerning the spread of the virus and their corresponding response measures. However, we find that this simple model is useful in accurately capturing the dynamics of the process, despite hidden interactions that are not directly modelled due to their complexity, and differences both within and between countries. The utility of this model is not confined to the current COVID-19 epidemic, rather this model could explain many other complex phenomena. It is of interest to have simple models that adequately describe these complex processes with unknown dynamics. As models become more complex, a simpler representation of the process can be desirable for the sake of parsimony.

Small extracellular vesicles secreted by vaginal fibroblasts exert inhibitory effect in female stress urinary incontinence through regulating the function of fibroblasts

by Xiaoyan Sun, Huimin Zhu, Wenjuan Li, Li Zhao, Wenhua Li, Xiaoyong Li, Zhenwei Xie

Stress urinary incontinence (SUI) is a common condition in women and associated with extra-cellular matrix (ECM) reconstruction, which is mainly regulated by fibroblasts. However, the underlying mechanism remains obscure. Small extracellular vesicles (sEVs) play fundamental biological roles in various cellular functions. Some studies suggested that the sEVs were involved in the metabolism of ECM and the function of fibroblasts. The purpose of our study was to investigate the effect of sEVs secreted by vaginal fibroblasts on the pathogenesis of SUI. We showed that the fibroblasts of female anterior vaginal wall secreted sEVs. Moreover, fibroblasts of females with SUI had significantly elevated secretion of sEVs. The collagen contents, proliferation and migration capacity of fibroblasts were decreased when fibroblasts were co-cultured with fibroblasts-derived sEVs (fibroblast-sEVs) from SUI patients. Proteomic analysis revealed that fibroblast-sEVs contained various differentially expressed proteins including TIMP2, TGF-β and ABCC4, which were involved in signaling pathways of fibroblasts regulation. Therefore, we suggested that fibroblast-sEVs contributed to the pathogenesis of SUI through various proteins including TIMP2, TGF-β and ABCC4.

Different fixation pattern for thoracolumbar fracture of ankylosing spondylitis: A finite element analysis

by Tianyu Zhang, Yanhua Wang, Peixun Zhang, Feng Xue, Dianying Zhang, Baoguo Jiang

The objective of this study is to establish an ankylosing spondylitis (AS) thoracolumbar fracture finite element (FE) model and provide a proper posterior fixation choice from the biomechanical perspective. The ankylosing spondylitis T9-L5 FE model was built and the range of motion (ROM) was compared to previous studies. The L1 transverse fracture was simulated and was separately fixed by five different patterns. The pull force and yielding force of the screws, the von Mises stress of the internal fixation, and the displacement of fracture site were analyzed to evaluate the proper fixation pattern for thoracolumbar fracture of AS. ROM of AS model was obviously restricted comparing to the normal vertebral experimental data. All the fixation patterns can stabilize the fracture. At least four levels of fixation can reduce the von Mises stress of the internal fixation. Four levels fixation has a higher pull force than the six levels fixation. Skipped level fixation did not reduce the stress, pull force and yielding force. The kyphosis correction did not change the biomechanical load. At least 4 levels fixation was needed for AS thoracolumbar fracture. The cemented screws should be chosen in 4 levels fixation to increase the holding of the screws. The skipped fixation has no advantage. The kyphosis correction can be chosen after weighing the pros and cons.

Knowledge, preventive behaviors and risk perception of the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study in Turkish health care workers

by Tufan Arslanca, Cihan Fidan, Mine Daggez, Polat Dursun

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak spread to over 100 countries with a total of 100,000 cases during the first week of March 2020. Health care workers, as those on the frontline of the COVID-19 pandemic, are more susceptible to infection. Inadequate related knowledge and preventive behaviors among health care workers might lead to delayed treatment and result in the rapid spread of the infection. Therefore, this study evaluated the knowledge of health care workers with regard to COVID-19. A cross-sectional study was conducted from June 10–18, 2020. Participants were general practitioners, specialists, and nurses working at the forefront of the pandemic. Their knowledge, preventive behaviors, and risk perceptions concerning COVID-19 were evaluated using an online questionnaire created by our medical specialists. The questionnaire consisted of 29, 5, and 4 items about COVID-19 knowledge, preventive behaviors, and risk perceptions, respectively. A total of 251 health care workers completed the questionnaire. The mean age of the participants was 33.88±8.72 years old, and the sample consisted of 68 males (27.08%) and 183 females (72.91%). While there was no difference between the percentage of correct answers given by female and male participants to knowledge-based questions (p>0.05), the percentage of correct answers to the questions on preventive behaviors was significantly higher in female participants than in males (p

Development and validation of a predictive model for critical illness in adult patients requiring hospitalization for COVID-19

by Neha Paranjape, Lauren L. Staples, Christina Y. Stradwick, Herman Gene Ray, Ian J. Saldanha

Background

Identifying factors that can predict severe disease in patients needing hospitalization for COVID-19 is crucial for early recognition of patients at greatest risk.

Objective

(1) Identify factors predicting intensive care unit (ICU) transfer and (2) develop a simple calculator for clinicians managing patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Methods

A total of 2,685 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to a large metropolitan health system in Georgia, USA between March and July 2020 were included in the study. Seventy-five percent of patients were included in the training dataset (admitted March 1 to July 10). Through multivariable logistic regression, we developed a prediction model (probability score) for ICU transfer. Then, we validated the model by estimating its performance accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]) using data from the remaining 25% of patients (admitted July 11 to July 31).

Results

We included 2,014 and 671 patients in the training and validation datasets, respectively. Diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, serum C-reactive protein, and serum lactate dehydrogenase were identified as significant risk factors for ICU transfer, and a prediction model was developed. The AUC was 0.752 for the training dataset and 0.769 for the validation dataset. We developed a free, web-based calculator to facilitate use of the prediction model (https://icucovid19.shinyapps.io/ICUCOVID19/).

Conclusion

Our validated, simple, and accessible prediction model and web-based calculator for ICU transfer may be useful in assisting healthcare providers in identifying hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk for clinical deterioration. Triage of such patients for early aggressive treatment can impact clinical outcomes for this potentially deadly disease.

Analysis of anaesthesia services to calculate national need and supply of anaesthetics in Switzerland during the COVID-19 pandemic

by Christoph Karl Hofer, Pedro David Wendel Garcia, Christof Heim, Michael Thomas Ganter

Background

In Switzerland, details of current anaesthesia practice are unknown. However, they are urgently needed to manage anaesthesia drug supply in times of drug shortages due to the pandemic.

Methods

We surveyed all Swiss anaesthesia institutions in April 2020 to determine their annual anaesthesia activity. Together with a detailed analysis on anaesthetic drug use of a large, representative Swiss anaesthesia index institution, calculations and projections for the annual need of anaesthetics in Switzerland were made. Only those drugs have been analysed that are either being used very frequently or that have been classified critical with regard to their supply by the pharmacy of the index institution or the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health.

Results

The response rate to our questionnaire was 98%. Out of the present 188 Swiss anaesthesia institutions, 185 responded. In Switzerland, the annual number of anaesthesias was 1’071’054 (12’445 per 100’000 inhabitants) with a mean anaesthesia time of 2.03 hours. Teaching hospitals (n = 54) performed more than half (n = 572’231) and non-teaching hospitals (n = 103) provided almost half of all anaesthesias (n = 412’531). Thereby, private hospitals conducted a total of 290’690 anaesthesias. Finally, office-based anaesthesia institutions with mainly outpatients (n = 31) administered 86’292 anaesthesias. Regarding type of anaesthesia provided, two thirds were general anaesthesias (42% total intravenous, 17% inhalation, 8% combined), 20% regional and 12% monitored anaesthesia care. Projecting for example the annual need for propofol in anaesthesia, Switzerland requires 48’573 L of propofol 1% which corresponds to 5’644 L propofol 1% per 100’000 inhabitants every year.

Conclusions

To actively manage anaesthesia drug supply in the context of the current pandemic, it is mandatory to have a detailed understanding of the number and types of anaesthesias provided. On this basis, the Swiss annual consumption of anaesthetics could be projected and the replenishment organized.

Patterns and associated factors of diabetes self-management: Results of a latent class analysis in a German population-based study

by Marcus Heise, Astrid Fink, Jens Baumert, Christin Heidemann, Yong Du, Thomas Frese, Solveig Carmienke

Objective

Few studies on diabetes self-management considered the patterns and relationships of different self-management behaviours (SMB). The aims of the present study are 1) to identify patterns of SMB among persons with diabetes, 2) to identify sociodemographic and disease-related predictors of SMB among persons with diabetes.

Research design and methods

The present analysis includes data of 1,466 persons (age 18 to 99 years; 44.0% female; 56.0% male) with diabetes (type I and II) from the population-based study German Health Update 2014/2015 (GEDA 2014/2015-EHIS). We used latent class analysis in order to distinguish different patterns of self-management behaviours among persons with diabetes. The assessment of SMB was based on seven self-reported activities by respondents (dietary plan, diabetes-diary, diabetes health pass, self-assessment of blood glucose, self-examination of feet, retinopathy-screenings and assessment of HbA1c). Subsequent multinomial latent variable regressions identified factors that were associated with self-management behaviour.

Results

Latent class analysis suggested a distinction between three patterns of SMB. Based on modal posterior probabilities 42.8% of respondents showed an adherent pattern of diabetes self-management with above-average frequency in all seven indicators of SMB. 32.1% showed a nonadherent pattern with a below-average commitment in all seven forms of SMB. Another 25.1% were assigned to an ambivalent type, which showed to be adherent with regard to retinopathy screenings, foot examinations, and the assessment of HbA1c, yet nonadherent with regard to all other forms of SMB. In multivariable regression analyses, participation in Diabetes Self-Management Education programs (DSME) was the most important predictor of good self-management behaviour (marginal effect = 51.7 percentage points), followed by attentiveness towards one’s personal health (31.0 percentage points). Respondents with a duration of illness of less than 10 years (19.5 percentage points), employed respondents (7.5 percentage points), as well as respondents with a high socioeconomic status (24.7 percentage points) were more likely to show suboptimal forms of diabetes self-management.

Discussion

In the present nationwide population-based study, a large proportion of persons with diabetes showed suboptimal self-management behaviour. Participation in a DSME program was the strongest predictor of good self-management. Results underline the need for continual and consistent health education for patients with diabetes.

A systematic review on improving implementation of the revitalised integrated disease surveillance and response system in the African region: A health workers’ perspective

by Arthur K. S. Ng’etich, Kuku Voyi, Ruth C. Kirinyet, Clifford M. Mutero

Background

The revised integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) guidelines adopted by African member states in 2010 aimed at strengthening surveillance systems critical capacities. Milestones achieved through IDSR strategy implementation prior to adopting the revised guidelines are well documented; however, there is a dearth of knowledge on the progress made post-adoption. This study aimed to review key recommendations resulting from surveillance assessment studies to improve implementation of the revitalised IDSR system in the African region based on health workers’ perspectives. The review focused on literature published between 2010 and 2019 post-adopting the revised IDSR guidelines in the African region.

Methods

A systematic literature search in PubMed, Web of Science and Cumulative Index for Nursing and Allied Health Literature was conducted. In addition, manual reference searches and grey literature searches using World Health Organisation Library and Information Networks for Knowledge databases were undertaken. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement checklist for systematic reviews was utilised for the review process.

Results

Thirty assessment studies met the inclusion criteria. IDSR implementation under the revised guidelines could be improved considerably bearing in mind critical findings and recommendations emanating from the reviewed surveillance assessment studies. Key recommendations alluded to provision of laboratory facilities and improved specimen handling, provision of reporting forms and improved reporting quality, surveillance data accuracy and quality, improved knowledge and surveillance system performance, utilisation of up-to-date information and surveillance system strengthening, provision of resources, enhanced reporting timeliness and completeness, adopting alternative surveillance strategies and conducting further research to improve surveillance functions.

Conclusion

Recommendations on strengthening IDSR implementation in the African region post-adopting the revised guidelines mainly identify surveillance functions focused on reporting, feedback, training, supervision, timeliness and completeness of the surveillance system as aspects requiring policy refinement.

Systematic review registration

PROSPERO registration number CRD42019124108.

Interactions between blending and identity concealment: Effects on non-binary people’s distress and experiences of victimization

by Sana Flynn, Nathan Grant Smith

Identity concealment (whether or not a person is open with others about their transgender status) and passing/blending (how much a transgender person can, or chooses to, blend into the binary social environment) have been shown to impact transgender people’s experiences in various ways, but few studies examine these constructs in the lives of non-binary individuals (those whose gender identity does not fall exclusively into the categories of man or woman). This study analyzed the non-binary subset of the nationwide sample from the 2015 United States Transgender Survey (9,769 participants) to examine the effects of blending/passing and identity concealment on distress and victimization. When ethnicity and income were controlled for, low concealers reported higher distress and more victimization experiences than high concealers, and blenders reported more distress and fewer victimization experiences than non-blenders. Not concealing may put non-binary people at higher risk for victimization, but blending into the binary-gendered environment may increase distress through identity erasure. Implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.
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