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Unexplained mortality during the US COVID-19 pandemic: retrospective analysis of death certificate data and critical assessment of excess death calculations

Por: Fairman · K. A. · Goodlet · K. J. · Rucker · J. D. · Zawadzki · R. S.
Objectives

Cause-of-death discrepancies are common in respiratory illness-related mortality. A standard epidemiological metric, excess all-cause death, is unaffected by these discrepancies but provides no actionable policy information when increased all-cause mortality is unexplained by reported specific causes. To assess the contribution of unexplained mortality to the excess death metric, we parsed excess deaths in the COVID-19 pandemic into changes in explained versus unexplained (unreported or unspecified) causes.

Design

Retrospective repeated cross-sectional analysis, US death certificate data for six influenza seasons beginning October 2014, comparing population-adjusted historical benchmarks from the previous two, three and five seasons with 2019–2020.

Setting

48 of 50 states with complete data.

Participants

16.3 million deaths in 312 weeks, reported in categories—all causes, top eight natural causes and respiratory causes including COVID-19.

Outcome measures

Change in population-adjusted counts of deaths from seasonal benchmarks to 2019–2020, from all causes (ie, total excess deaths) and from explained versus unexplained causes, reported for the season overall and for time periods defined a priori: pandemic awareness (19 January through 28 March); initial pandemic peak (29 March through 30 May) and pandemic post-peak (31 May through 26 September).

Results

Depending on seasonal benchmark, 287 957–306 267 excess deaths occurred through September 2020: 179 903 (58.7%–62.5%) attributed to COVID-19; 44 022–49 311 (15.2%–16.1%) to other reported causes; 64 032–77 054 (22.2%–25.2%) unexplained (unspecified or unreported cause). Unexplained deaths constituted 65.2%–72.5% of excess deaths from 19 January to 28 March and 14.1%–16.1% from 29 March through 30 May.

Conclusions

Unexplained mortality contributed substantially to US pandemic period excess deaths. Onset of unexplained mortality in February 2020 coincided with previously reported increases in psychotropic use, suggesting possible psychiatric or injurious causes. Because underlying causes of unexplained deaths may vary by group or region, results suggest excess death calculations provide limited actionable information, supporting previous calls for improved cause-of-death data to support evidence-based policy.

Identifying womens preferences for treatment of urinary tract infection: a discrete choice experiment

Por: van der Worp · H. · Brandenbarg · D. · Boek · P. A. · Braams · J. H. W. · Brink · L. J. F. · Keupers · J. · Blanker · M. H.
Objective

To identify the preferences of women regarding management of urinary tract infections (UTIs).

Design

A discrete choice experiment of the preferences for certain treatment attributes was conducted by survey. Attributes included treatment duration, time to complaint resolution, complication risk, side effect risk and contribution to antimicrobial resistance.

Setting

General population in the Netherlands, recruited via social media.

Participants

Women aged 18 years or older.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

The primary outcome was the relative importance of the attributes for treatment choice, using a conditional logit model. The secondary outcome was the heterogeneity in these preferences.

Results

The discrete choice experiment was completed by 833 women. Most attributes were important to decisions for UTI treatment. Women were willing to accept management with, for example, a higher chance of complications or longer time to resolution, if it could help avoid antimicrobial resistance. However, there was heterogeneity in the preferences. Women who had one previous UTI had a stronger preference for faster symptom resolution compared with those who had no previous UTI. Younger women also preferred faster symptom resolution. Finally, women with a low or middle education level gave less importance to preventing antimicrobial resistance than women with a high education level.

Conclusions

The current study indicated that a considerable part of women valued alternatives to antimicrobial treatment and were prepared to tolerate management that was less optimal in certain respects to avoid antimicrobial treatment.

Epidemiology, management and the associated burden of mental health illness, atopic and autoimmune conditions, and common infections in alopecia areata: protocol for an observational study series

Por: Harries · M. · Macbeth · A. E. · Holmes · S. · Thompson · A. R. · Chiu · W. S. · Gallardo · W. R. · Messenger · A. G. · Tziotzios · C. · de Lusignan · S.
Introduction

Alopecia areata (AA) is a common cause of immune-mediated non-scarring hair loss. Links between AA and common mental health, autoimmune and atopic conditions, and common infections have previously been described but remain incompletely elucidated and contemporary descriptions of the epidemiology of AA in the UK are lacking.

Methods and analysis

Retrospective study series using a large population-based cohort (5.2 million) from the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) database, exploring four themes: AA epidemiology, mental health comorbidities, autoimmune/atopic associations and common infections.

In the epidemiology theme, we will describe the incidence and point prevalence of AA overall and by age, sex and sociodemographic factors. Healthcare utilisation (primary care visits and secondary care referrals) and treatments for AA will also be assessed. In the mental health theme, we will explore the prevalence and incidence of mental health conditions (anxiety, depressive episodes, recurrent depressive disorder, adjustment disorder, agoraphobia, self-harm and parasuicide) in people with AA compared with matched controls. We will also explore the mental health treatment patterns (medication and psychological interventions), time off work and unemployment rates. Within the autoimmune/atopic associations theme, we will examine the prevalence of atopic (atopic dermatitis, allergic rhinitis, asthma) and autoimmune conditions (Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, coeliac disease, type 1 diabetes, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis, Graves’ disease, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), polymyalgia rheumatica, Sjögren’s syndrome, psoriasis, vitiligo, multiple sclerosis, pernicious anaemia) in people with AA compared with matched controls. We will also estimate the incidence of new-onset atopic and autoimmune conditions after AA diagnosis. Within the common infections theme, we will examine the incidence of common infections (respiratory tract infection, pneumonia, acute bronchitis, influenza, skin infection, urinary tract infection, genital infections, gastrointestinal infection, herpes simplex, herpes zoster, meningitis, COVID-19) in people with AA compared with matched controls.

Ethics and dissemination

The Health Research Authority decision tool classed this a study of usual practice, ethics approval was not required. Study approval was granted by the RCGP RSC Study Approval Committee. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications.

Observational study registration number

NCT04239521.

Vaccination against COVID-19 and societys return to normality in England: a modelling study of impacts of different types of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity

Por: Song · F. · Bachmann · M. O.
Objectives

To project impacts of mass vaccination against COVID-19, and investigate possible impacts of different types of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity on future dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from 2021 to 2024 in England.

Design

Deterministic, compartmental, discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) modelling.

Participants

Population in England.

Interventions

Mass vaccination programmes.

Outcome measures

Daily and cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19.

Results

If vaccine efficacy remains high (85%), the vaccine-induced sterilising immunity lasts ≥182 days, and the reinfectivity is greatly reduced (by ≥60%), annual mass vaccination programmes can prevent further COVID-19 outbreaks in England. Under optimistic scenarios, with annual revaccination programmes, the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths is estimated to be from 130 000 to 150 000 by the end of 2024. However, the total number of COVID-19 deaths may be up to 431 000 by the end of 2024, under scenarios with compromised vaccine efficacy (62.5%), short duration of natural and vaccine immunity (365/182 days) and small reduction in reinfectivity (30%). Under the assumed scenarios, more frequent revaccinations are associated with smaller total numbers and lower peaks of daily deaths from COVID-19.

Conclusions

Under optimistic scenarios, mass immunisation using efficacious vaccines may enable society safely to return to normality. However, under plausible scenarios with low vaccine efficacy and short durability of immunity, COVID-19 could continue to cause recurrent waves of severe morbidity and mortality despite frequent vaccinations. It is crucial to monitor the vaccination effects in the real world, and to better understand characteristics of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Patient perspectives on integrated healthcare for HIV, hypertension and type 2 diabetes: a scoping review

Por: Singh · S. · Kirk · O. · Jaffar · S. · Karakezi · C. · Ramaiya · K. · Kallestrup · P. · Kraef · C.
Introduction

Antiretroviral therapy has reduced mortality and led to longer life expectancy in people living with HIV. These patients are now at an increased risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Integration of care for HIV and NCDs has become a focus of research and policy. In this article, we aim to review patient perspectives on integration of healthcare for HIV, type 2 diabetes and hypertension.

Methods

The framework for scoping reviews developed by Arksey and O'Malley and updated by Peter et al was applied for this review. The databases PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane library were searched. Broad search terms for HIV, NCDs (specifically type 2 diabetes and hypertension) and healthcare integration were used. As the review aimed to identify definitions of patient perspectives, they were not included as an independent term in the search strategy. References of included publications were searched for relevant articles. Titles and abstracts for these papers were screened by two independent reviewers. The full texts for all the publications appearing to meet the inclusion criteria were then read to make the final literature selection.

Results

Of 5502 studies initially identified, 13 articles were included in this review, of which 11 had a geographical origin in sub-Saharan Africa. Nine articles were primarily focused on HIV/diabetes healthcare integration while four articles were focused on HIV/hypertension integration. Patient’s experiences with integrated care were reduced HIV-related stigma, reduced travel and treatment costs and a more holistic person-centred care. Prominent concerns were long waiting times at clinics and a lack of continuity of care in some clinics due to a lack of healthcare workers. Non-integrated care was perceived as time-consuming and more expensive.

Conclusion

Patient perspectives and experiences on integrated care for HIV, diabetes and hypertension were mostly positive. Integrated services can save resources and allow for a more personalised approach to healthcare. There is a paucity of evidence and further longitudinal and interventional evidence from a more diverse range of healthcare systems are needed.

How do health professionals translate evidence on early childhood allergy prevention into health literacy-responsive practice? A protocol for a mixed-method study on the views of German health professionals

Por: Curbach · J. · Lander · J. · Dierks · M. L. · Grepmeier · E.-M. · von Sommoggy · J.
Introduction

Paediatricians, general practitioners (GPs) and midwives in primary care are important sources of information for parents on early childhood allergy prevention (ECAP). Research has shown that preventive counselling by health professionals can be effective in improving patients’ health literacy (HL) and health behaviour. Providing effective advice relies on two factors. First, health professionals need be up-to-date with research evidence on ECAP, to consider popular misconceptions and fears and to translate this knowledge into clear recommendations for parents (knowledge translation). Second, they need to know and apply counselling techniques and create a practice setting which accommodates parental HL needs (health literacy-responsive care). The objective of this study is to explore and assess how German health professionals take up and translate ECAP evidence into appropriate recommendations for parents, how they consider HL in counselling and practice organisation and what barriers and enablers they find in their performance of HL-responsive ECAP.

Methods and analysis

The study has a sequential mixed-method design, in two phases. In the first phase, qualitative semi-structured expert interviews will be conducted with health professionals (paediatricians, GPs and midwives) at primary care level and professional policy level. Data collection is ongoing until January 2022. In the second phase, based on the qualitative results, a standardised questionnaire will be developed, and pilot-tested in a wider population of German health professionals. The findings of both phases will be integrated.

Ethics and dissemination

The study has received ethical approval from the Ethics Committee of the University of Regensburg (18-1205-101). The results will be published in international peer-reviewed open access journals and via presentations at scientific conferences. The results will also be shared with German health professionals, decision-makers and potential funders of interventions.

Association of apolipoprotein Cs with new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus: findings from the Chinese multi-provincial cohort study

Por: Li · J. · Zhao · D. · Liu · J. · Wang · M. · Sun · J. · Liu · J. · Li · Y. · Deng · Q. · Qi · Y.
Objectives

Apolipoprotein Cs (apoCs), especially apoC-II and apoC-III, as the components of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, play a key role in the pathophysiology of diabetes. However, prospective studies examining direct associations between apoCs and diabetes are not reproducible. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of apoCs on the risk of developing diabetes in a middle-aged population, and to explore possible mediators responsible for the relationship between apoCs and diabetes.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting

Community-based study carried out in Beijing.

Methods

ApoCs were measured in 1085 participants aged 45–74 years and free of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at baseline from the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study-Beijing Project. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to examine the association of apoCs with a 5-year risk of new-onset T2DM. The impacts of triglycerides, insulin and high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP) on the association between apoC-III and the risk of T2DM were explored by a mediation test.

Results

During the 5 years of follow-up, 97 (8.9%) participants developed T2DM. ApoC-III was significantly associated with the risk of developing T2DM after multivariable adjustment (OR=1.40; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.82). This association was mainly mediated by triglyceride levels with a significant indirect effect (OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.19 to 2.18), followed by hs-CRP and insulin.

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrated that higher serum apoC-III was independently associated with increased 5-year risk of new-onset T2DM in the Chinese population, and triglyceride plays a crucial role in mediating this relationship. More attention should be paid to preventive strategies of T2DM targeting apoC-III.

Developing a preference-based measure for weight-specific health-related quality of life in adolescence: the WAItE UK valuation study protocol

Por: Robinson · T. · Hill · S. · Oluboyede · Y.
Introduction

Adolescent obesity is a public health problem in the UK. The Weight-Specific Adolescent Instrument for Economic Evaluation (WAItE) has been developed as the first weight-specific health-related quality of life measure appropriate for economic evaluation, but currently cannot be used to generate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), which are the basis of cost-utility analysis. Generic measures (such as the EQ-5D-Y or CHU-9D) may be insensitive to small but important health changes in overweight or obese adolescents. This study aims to generate a preference-based scoring algorithm for the WAItE.

Methods and analysis

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) will be administered to value health states described by the WAItE classification system. These health states will be presented to members of the adult general population of the UK via an online survey. A range of regression models will be used to produce the utility algorithm for the WAItE. The DCE-visual analogue scale and time trade-off (TTO) anchoring methods will be used anchor the value set on to the 0–1 QALY scale.

Ethics and dissemination

The Newcastle University Medical School Ethics Committee approved the study (references 4772/2020 (DCE) and 9978/2020 (TTO)). The developed algorithm can be applied to future economic evaluations of weight management interventions and treatments for adolescents.

Impact of multimodal warming during general anaesthesia on postoperative cognitive dysfunction in elderly patients with gynaecological cancer: study protocol for a single-blinded randomised controlled trial

Por: Zhang · J. · Song · S. · Zhu · Q.
Background

Cognitive impairment after anaesthesia and surgery is a recognised consequence. This often leads to poor health outcomes and increases healthcare resource utilisation and associated costs, especially in elderly people. However, thus far, there have not been any effective therapies for managing postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD). Furthermore, research on the association of multimodal warming with POCD and the clinical outcomes in older patients after gynaecological surgery has not been rigorous. For these reasons, our investigation aims to evaluate whether perioperative multimodal warming would reduce the incidence of POCD and improve prognosis in elderly patients with gynaecological cancer.

Methods and analysis

This is a single-centre, prospective, single-blinded randomised controlled trial. One hundred and fifty patients for gynaecological cancer surgery and 16 non-surgical controls aged 65 years or older will be studied in this trial. A series of neuropsychological tests will be completed to evaluate cognitive function in surgery patients before, at day 7 and 3 months after gynaecological cancer surgery. In addition, POCD and cognitive decline will be assessed using the reliable change index using the control group’s results. The primary outcome is the prevalence of POCD in elderly gynaecological cancer surgery patients and association between perioperative multimodal warming and POCD.

Ethics and dissemination

The protocol for this prospective observational study was approved by the ethics committee of the West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University (NO. KX215). Recruitment will commence in April 2021 and continue to April 2022. The findings of this trial will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and scientific meetings.

Trial registration number

ChiCTR2100041663.

Efficacy of tofacitinib in reduction of inflammation detected on MRI in patients with Psoriatic ArthritiS presenTing with axial involvement (PASTOR): protocol of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial

Por: Proft · F. · Torgutalp · M. · Muche · B. · Rios Rodriguez · V. · Verba · M. · Poddubnyy · D.
Introduction

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory disease characterised by synovitis, enthesitis, dactylitis and axial involvement. The prevalence of axial involvement ranges from 25% to 70% in this patient group. Treatment recommendations for axial PsA were mainly extrapolated from guidelines for axial spondyloarthritis, and the main treatment options are non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (tumour necrosis factor, IL-17 and IL-23 inhibitors). Tofacitinib was approved for the treatment of PsA and its efficacy on axial inflammation has been demonstrated in a phase II study of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). This prospective study aims to evaluate the efficacy of tofacitinib in reducing inflammation in the sacroiliac joints (SIJs) and spine on MRI in patients with axial disease of their PsA presenting with active axial involvement compatible with axial PsA.

Methods and analyses

This is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre clinical trial in patients with axial PsA who have evidence of axial involvement, active disease as defined by a Bath AS Disease Activity Index score of ≥4 and active inflammation on MRI of the SIJs and/or spine as assessed by and independent central reader. The study includes a 6-week screening period, a 24-week treatment period, which consist of a 12-week placebo-controlled double-blind treatment period followed by a 12-week active treatment period with tofacitinib for all participants, and a safety follow-up period of 4 weeks. At baseline, 80 subjects shall be randomised (1:1) to receive either tofacitinib or matching placebo for a 12-week double-blind treatment period. At week 12, an MRI of the whole spine and SIJs will be performed to evaluate the primary study endpoint.

Ethics and dissemination

The study will be performed according to the ethical principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and the German drug law. The independent ethics committees of each centre approved the ethical, scientific and medical appropriateness of the study before it was conducted.

Trial registration number

NCT04062695; ClinicalTrials.gov and EudraCT No: 2018-004254-22; European Union Clinical Trials Register.

Virtual team-based care planning with older persons in formal care settings: a scoping review protocol

Por: Gao · H. · Yous · M.-L. · Connelly · D. · Hung · L. · Garnett · A. · Hay · M. E. · Snobelen · N. · Salatino · S.
Introduction

COVID-19 has necessitated greater adoption of virtual care (eg, telephone (audio), videoconference) delivery models. Virtual care provides opportunities for innovative practice in care planning with older persons and meaningful family engagement by synchronously involving multiple care providers. Nevertheless, there remains a paucity of summarising evidence regarding virtual team-based care planning for older persons. The purpose of this scoping review is to summarise evidence on the utilisation of virtual team-based care planning for older persons in formal care settings. Specifically, (1) what has been reported in the literature on the impact or outcomes of virtual team-based care planning? (2) What are the facilitators and barriers to implementation?

Methods and analysis

This scoping review will follow a rigorous and well-established methodology by the Joanna Briggs Institute, supplemented by the Arksey & O’Malley and Levac, Colquhoun, & O’Brien frameworks. A three-step search strategy will be used to conduct a search on virtual team-based care planning for older persons in formal care settings. Keywords and index terms will be identified from an initial search in PubMed and AgeLine, and used to conduct the full search in the databases PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, AgeLine, PsycInfo and Scopus. Reference lists of included articles and grey literature retrieved through Google and Google Scholar will also be reviewed. Three researchers will screen titles and abstracts, and will conduct full-text review for inclusion. Extracted data will be mapped in a table.

Ethics and dissemination

Research ethics approval is not required for data collection from publicly accessible information. Findings will be presented at conferences, submitted for open-access publication in a peer-reviewed journal and made accessible to multiple stakeholders. The scoping review will summarise the literature on virtual team-based care planning for the purpose of informing the implementation of a virtual PIECES™ intervention (Physical/Intellectual/Emotional health, Capabilities, Environment, and Social).

Characteristics of low-tier female sex workers who engage in commercial sex with old male clients in Zhejiang province, China: a cross-sectional study

Por: Jiang · T. · Pan · X. · Ma · Q. · Jiang · J. · Chen · L. · Wang · H. · Zhou · X. · Chen · W.
Objectives

To characterise low-tier female sex workers (FSWs) who engage in commercial sex with old male clients (OMCs).

Design

Cross-sectional study.

Setting

Twenty-one counties in Zhejiang province, China.

Participants

A total of 2647 low-tier FSWs who participated in our survey from September to November 2013, and responded to the question regarding whether they engaged in commercial sex with OMCs during the previous month.

Main outcome measures

Data on sociodemographic characteristics, sexual behaviours, risk perception of HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI), ever exposure to an HIV prevention service and degree of self-efficacy regarding condom use were collected via a face-to-face questionnaire administered by trained interviewers.

Results

Of the 2647 participants, 1165 (44.0%) had engaged in commercial sex with OMCs in the previous month. Low-tier FSWs working out of roadside shops, those who had engaged in sex work for longer, those with a larger number of clients, those who had engaged in anal or oral sex during the previous month, those currently using contraception measures, those who had STI symptoms and those who had been exposed to HIV prevention services during the previous 6 months were more likely to engage in commercial sex with OMCs. FSWs with a high level of education; those working out of small venues other than streets, hair salons and roadside shops; those who charged more for commercial sex; those who had sex with young clients during the previous month and those who had seen a doctor during the previous 6 months were less likely to engage in commercial sex with OMCs.

Conclusions

Low-tier FSWs who engaged in commercial sex with OMCs reported more risky behaviours than those who did not engage in this behaviour. Attention should be paid to these behaviours in future interventions targeting low-tier FSWs.

Association between neighbourhood deprivation, fetal growth, small-for-gestational age and preterm birth: a population-based prospective cohort study

Por: Gootjes · D. V. · Posthumus · A. G. · Jaddoe · V. W. V. · Steegers · E. A. P.
Objective

To study the associations between neighbourhood deprivation and fetal growth, including growth in the first trimester, and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting

The Netherlands, Rotterdam.

Participants

8617 live singleton births from the Generation R cohort study.

Exposition

Living in a deprived neighbourhood.

Main outcome measures

Fetal growth trajectories of head circumference, weight and length.

Secondary outcomes measures

Small-for-gestational age (SGA) and preterm birth (PTB).

Results

Neighbourhood deprivation was not associated with first trimester growth. However, a higher neighbourhood status score (less deprivation) was associated with increased fetal growth in the second and third trimesters (eg, estimated fetal weight; adjusted regression coefficient 0.04, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.06). Less deprivation was also associated with decreased odds of SGA (adjusted OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.97, p=0.01) and PTB (adjusted OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.96, p=0.01).

Conclusions

We found an association between neighbourhood deprivation and fetal growth in the second and third trimester pregnancy, but not with first trimester growth. Less neighbourhood deprivation is associated with lower odds of adverse pregnancy outcomes. The associations remained after adjustment for individual-level risk factors. This supports the hypothesis that living in a deprived neighbourhood acts as an independent risk factor for fetal growth and adverse pregnancy outcomes, above and beyond individual risk factors.

Integrated system responses for families impacted by violence: a scoping review protocol

Por: Gear · C. · Ting · C.-J. · Eraki · M. · Eppel · E. · Koziol-McLain · J.
Introduction

The impacts of violence have a significant effect on health and well-being, particularly for women and children. Violence within families is widely recognised as a complex problem constituted by constantly interacting and evolving social, economic, health and cultural elements. Calls for integrated services have arisen from growing understanding about the implications of this complexity, which suggest family violence and solutions to it are generated endogenously from the reflexive nonlinear interactions of system agents. Despite these calls for integration, services designed to support families impacted by violence and the systems that design and fund them are often responsive only to one part of the problem and might not pay attention to agent interactions and their adaptive reflexivity. This paper outlines a scoping protocol to explore how integrated approaches to family violence are conceptualised in current literature, with innovative use of a complexity theory lens.

Method

Our scoping review protocol follows the framework outlined by Arksey and O’Malley and refined by Levac. It searches 6 databases, 3 journals and 10 websites using keywords to capture the notion of integration and a complex adaptive system, namely the participant (system agents), concept (system agent interaction) and the context (family violence). Selection criteria require the articles to be written in English, have full-text article available, and were published after 2010. Items selected also need to be evidence based showing interaction between system agents. Applying complexity theory, sensitises us to the reflexive patterns of interaction between system elements and routine ways of interacting.

Ethics and dissemination

The nature of this review means that ethics approval is not required. Findings will be disseminated via academic publications, conferences and discussions with policy decision-makers. The findings will be used to develop a plan for stakeholder consultation to share and validate learnings and inform future research.

Hospital management of major stroke types in Chinese adults: a population-based study of 20 000 hospitalised stroke cases

Por: Qin · H. · Turnbull · I. · Chen · Y. · Wright · N. · Liu · L. · Pei · P. · Tang · W. · Xiang · S. · Guo · Y. · Zhao · X. · Clarke · R. · Li · L. · Wang · Y. · Chen · Z. · On behalf of The China Kadoorie Biobank Collaborative Group
Objectives

To compare hospital treatments for major stroke types in Chinese adults by stroke pathological types, sex, age, calendar year, hospital tier, region and other factors.

Design

Cross-sectional analysis of medical records retrieved from 20 229 stroke cases in the China Kadoorie Biobank.

Setting

Ten diverse areas (five urban, five rural) in China.

Participants

First-incident stroke cases who were recruited during an 11-year follow-up of 0.5M participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank.

Methods

Electronic copies of medical records of stroke cases were retrieved for clinical adjudication by local neurologists. Stroke cases were classified as ischaemic stroke (IS) (including lacunar infarction (LACI) and non-LACI (non-LACI)), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) and unspecified stroke types.

Results

Among 20 299 first-ever stroke cases, 17 306 (85%) had IS, 7123 had non-LACI, 6690 had LACI, 3493 had silent LACI, 2623 (13%) had ICH and 370 (2%) had SAH. Among IS cases, antiplatelet treatment was used by 64% (65% non-LACI, 66% LACI, 56% silent LACI), lipid-lowering by 50% (52% non-LACI, 53% LACI, 43% silent LACI) and blood pressure-lowering by ~42% of all IS types, with positive trends in the use of these treatments by calendar year and hospital tier. Among ICH cases, 53% used blood pressure-lowering and 10% used lipid-lowering treatments, respectively. In contrast, traditional Chinese medicines (TCMs) were used by 59% of IS (50% non-LACI, 62% LACI, 74% silent LACI), 38% of ICH and 30% of SAH cases, with positive trends by calendar year and by hospital tier.

Conclusions

Among IS cases, use of antiplatelet and lipid-lowering medications increased in recent years, but use of TCM still exceeded use of blood pressure-lowering treatment. In contrast, blood pressure-lowering treatment was widely used for ICH, but only half of all ICH cases used blood pressure-lowering treatment.

Regional variations and prevalence of psoriasis in Germany from 2010 to 2017: a cross-sectional, spatio-epidemiological study on ambulatory claims data

Por: Andrees · V. · Wolf · S. · Augustin · M. · Mohr · N. · Augustin · J.
Objectives

Global prevalence rates of psoriasis differ significantly, with lowest rates in the equator region and increasing tendencies towards the north but also differences within-country. Information on regional variations in Germany is missing. This study aims to analyse the change of psoriasis prevalence in Germany over time and to detect regional variations.

Design

Cross sectional, spatio-epidemiological study on regional psoriasis prevalence in Germany.

Setting

Claims data study based on nationwide outpatient billing data on county level.

Methods

Analyses based on outpatient billing data for 2010–2017 derived from all people insured in statutory health insurances (about 72.8 million). We performed descriptive spatio-temporal analyses of prevalence rates using probability mapping and statistical smoothing methods, identified spatial clusters and examined a north-south gradient using spatial statistics.

Results

The prevalence increased from 147.4 per 10 000 in 2010 to 173.5 in 2017. In 2017, counties’ prevalence rates ranged between 93.8 and 340.9. Decreased rates occurred mainly in southern counties, increased rates in northern and eastern counties. Clusters of low rates occur in southern and south-western Germany, clusters of high rates in the north and north-east. The correlation between counties’ latitudes and their prevalence rates was high with Pearson’s r=0.65 (p

Conclusion

Increased prevalence of psoriasis over time and marked regional variations in Germany were observed which need further investigation.

Correction: Screening tools for early identification of children with developmental delay in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Faruk T, King C, Muhit M, et al. Screening tools for early identification of children with developmental delay in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review. BMJ Open 2020;10:e038182. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038182

This article was previously published with an error.

The paper mentioned that the development of tool LDCDQ took place in Canada, which is incorrect. The instrument was originally developed in Israel.

'Care co-ordinator in my pocket: a feasibility study of mobile assessment and therapy for psychosis (TechCare)

Por: Gire · N. · Caton · N. · McKeown · M. · Mohmed · N. · Duxbury · J. · Kelly · J. · Riley · M. · J Taylor · P. · Taylor · C. D. J. · Naeem · F. · Chaudhry · I. B. · Husain · N.
Objectives

The aim of the project was to examine the acceptability and feasibility of a mobile phone application-based intervention ‘TechCare’, for individuals with psychosis in the North West of England. The main objectives were to determine whether appropriate individuals could be identified and recruited to the study and whether the TechCare App would be an acceptable intervention for individuals with psychosis.

Methods

This was a mixed methods feasibility study, consisting of a test-run and feasibility evaluation of the TechCare App intervention.

Setting

Early Intervention Services (EIS) for psychosis, within an NHS Trust in the North West of England.

Participants

Sixteen participants (test-run n=4, feasibility study n=12) aged between 18 and 65 years recruited from the East, Central and North Lancashire EIS.

Intervention

A 6-week intervention, with the TechCare App assessing participants’ symptoms and responses in real-time and providing a personalised-guided self-help-based psychological intervention based on the principles of Cognitive Behaviorual Therapy (CBT).

Results

A total of 83.33% (n=10) of participants completed the 6-week feasibility study, with 70% of completers achieving the set compliance threshold of ≥33% engagement with the TechCare App system. Analysis of the qualitative data suggested that participants held the view that the TechCare was both an acceptable and feasible means of delivering interventions in real-time.

Conclusion

Innovative digital clinical technologies, such as the TechCare App, have the potential to increase access to psychological interventions, reduce health inequality and promote self-management with a real-time intervention, through enabling access to mental health resources in a stigma-free, evidence-based and time-independent manner.

Trial registration number

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02439619.

Protocol for a systematic review of economic evaluations of preoperative smoking cessation interventions for preventing surgical complications

Por: McCaffrey · N. · Higgins · J. · Lal · A.
Introduction

The short-term economic benefit of embedding best practice tobacco dependence treatment (TDT) into healthcare services prior to surgery across different populations and jurisdictions is largely unknown. The aim of this systematic review is to summarise the cost-effectiveness of preoperative smoking cessation interventions for preventing surgical complications compared with usual care. The results will provide hospital managers, clinicians, healthcare professionals and policymakers with a critical summary of the economic evidence on providing TDT routinely before surgery, aiding the development and dissemination of unified, best practice guidelines, that is, implementation of article 14 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

Methods and analysis

A comprehensive search of peer-reviewed literature will be conducted from database inception until 23 June 2021 (Cochrane, Econlit, Embase, Health Technology Assessment, Medline Complete, Scopus). Published, English-language articles describing economic evaluations of preoperative smoking cessation interventions for preventing surgical complications will be included. One researcher will complete the searches and two researchers will independently screen results for eligible studies. Any disagreement will be resolved by the third researcher. A narrative summary of included studies will be provided. Study characteristics, economic evaluation methods and cost-effectiveness results will be extracted by one reviewer and descriptive analyses will be undertaken. A second reviewer will review data extracted for accuracy from 10% of the included studies. Reporting and methodological quality of the included studies will be evaluated independently by two reviewers using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards statement and the Quality of Health Economic Studies Instrument checklist, respectively.

Ethics and dissemination

This research does not require ethics approval because the study is a planned systematic review of published literature. Findings will be presented at health economic, public health and tobacco control conferences, published in a peer-reviewed journal and disseminated via social media.

Trial registration number

CRD42021257740.

Trends and causes of adult mortality from 2007 to 2017 using verbal autopsy method, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Por: Fenta · E. H. · Sisay · B. G. · Gebreyesus · S. H. · Endris · B. S.
Objectives

We aim to analyse the trends and causes of mortality among adults in Addis Ababa.

Setting

This analysis was conducted using verbal autopsy data from the Addis Ababa Mortality Surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Participants

All deceased adults aged 15 years and above between 2007–2012 and 2015–2017 were included in the analysis.

Outcome measures

We collected verbal autopsy and conducted physician review to ascertain cause of death.

Result

A total of 7911 data were included in this analysis. Non-communicable disease (NCD) accounted for 62.8% of adult mortality. Mortality from communicable diseases, maternal conditions and nutritional deficiencies followed this by accounting for 30.3% of total mortality. Injury accounted for 6.8% of total mortality. We have observed a significant decline in mortality attributed to group one cause of death (43.25% in 2007 to 12.34% in 2017, p

Conclusion

We documented an epidemiological shift in cause of mortality from communicable diseases to NCD over 10 years. There is a great progress in reducing mortality due to communicable diseases over the past years. However, the burden of NCDs call for actions for improving access to quality health service, improved case detection and community education to increase awareness. Integrating NCD intervention in to a well-established and successful programme targeting communicable diseases in the country might be beneficial for improving provision of comprehensive healthcare.

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