To externally validate the four-variable kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) in the Peruvian population for predicting kidney failure at 2 and 5 years.

A retrospective cohort study.

17 primary care centres from the Health’s Social Security of Peru.

Patients older than 18 years, diagnosed with chronic kidney disease stage 3a–3b–4 and 3b–4, between January 2013 and December 2017. Patients were followed until they developed kidney failure, died, were lost, or ended the study (31 December 2019), whichever came first.

Performance of the KFRE model was assessed based on discrimination and calibration measures considering the competing risk of death.

We included 7519 patients in stages 3a–4 and 2798 patients in stages 3b–4. The estimated cumulative incidence of kidney failure, accounting for competing event of death, at 2 years and 5 years, was 1.52% and 3.37% in stages 3a–4 and 3.15% and 6.86% in stages 3b–4. KFRE discrimination at 2 and 5 years was high, with time-dependent area under the curve and C-index >0.8 for all populations. Regarding calibration in-the-large, the observed to expected ratio and the calibration intercept indicated that KFRE underestimates the overall risk at 2 years and overestimates it at 5 years in all populations.

The four-variable KFRE models have good discrimination but poor calibration in the Peruvian population. The model underestimates the risk of kidney failure in the short term and overestimates it in the long term. Further research should focus on updating or recalibrating the KFRE model to better predict kidney failure in the Peruvian context before recommending its use in clinical practice.

The RESPIRA cohort aims to describe the nature, magnitude, time course and efficacy of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, population prevalence, and household transmission of COVID-19.

From November 2020, we selected age-stratified random samples of COVID-19 cases from Costa Rica confirmed by PCR. For each case, two population-based controls, matched on age, sex and census tract were recruited, supplemented with hospitalised cases and household contacts. Participants were interviewed and blood and saliva collected for antibodies and PCR tests. Participants will be followed for 2 years to assess antibody response and infection incidence.

Recruitment included 3860 individuals: 1150 COVID-19 cases, 1999 population controls and 719 household contacts from 304 index cases. The age and regional distribution of cases was as planned, including four age strata, 30% rural and 70% urban. The control cohort had similar sex, age and regional distribution as the cases according to the study design. Among the 1999 controls recruited, 6.8% reported at enrolment having had COVID-19 and an additional 12.5% had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Compliance with visits and specimens has been close to 70% during the first 18 months of follow-up. During the study, national vaccination was implemented and nearly 90% of our cohort participants were vaccinated during follow-up.

RESPIRA will enable multiple analyses, including population prevalence of infection, clinical, behavioural, immunological and genetic risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 acquisition and severity, and determinants of household transmission. We are conducting retrospective and prospective assessment of antibody levels, their determinants and their protective efficacy after infection and vaccination, the impact of long-COVID and a series of ancillary studies. Follow-up continues with bimonthly saliva collection for PCR testing and biannual blood collection for immune response analyses. Follow-up will be completed in early 2024.

NCT04537338.