Climate change is a major global issue with significant consequences, including effects on air quality and human well-being. This review investigated the projection of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to air pollution under different climate change scenarios.

This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 flow checklist. A population-exposure-outcome framework was established. Population referred to the general global population of all ages, the exposure of interest was air pollution and its projection, and the outcome was the occurrence of NCDs attributable to air pollution and burden of disease (BoD) based on the health indices of mortality, morbidity, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost and years lived with disability.

The Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE and EBSCOhost databases were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2023.

The eligible articles were evaluated using the modified scale of a checklist for assessing the quality of ecological studies.

Two reviewers searched, screened and selected the included studies independently using standardised methods. The risk of bias was assessed using the modified scale of a checklist for ecological studies. The results were summarised based on the projection of the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution.

This review included 11 studies from various countries. Most studies specifically investigated various air pollutants, specifically particulate matter 2.5), nitrogen oxides and ozone. The studies used coupled-air quality and climate modelling approaches, and mainly projected health effects using the concentration–response function model. The NCDs attributable to air pollution included cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, coronary heart disease and lower respiratory infections. Notably, the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution was projected to decrease in a scenario that promotes reduced air pollution, carbon emissions and land use and sustainable socioeconomics. Contrastingly, the BoD of NCDs was projected to increase in a scenario involving increasing population numbers, social deprivation and an ageing population.

The included studies widely reported increased premature mortality, CVD and respiratory disease attributable to PM_2.5. Future NCD projection studies should consider emission and population changes in projecting the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution in the climate change era.

CRD42023435288.