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Development of explainable machine learning models to predict side effects in patients with rheumatoid arthritis taking methotrexate treatment: a nationwide multicentre cohort study

Por: Jang · J. · Kim · W. J. · Park · S. W. · Moon · K. W. W.
Objectives

Methotrexate (MTX) effectively controls rheumatoid arthritis (RA) but often leads to side effects (SE) such as gastrointestinal (GI) issues, liver toxicity and bone marrow suppression. To develop clinically interpretable machine learning (ML) models that accurately predict MTX-related SE in patients with RA taking MTX. The aim was to enhance predictive accuracy and to identify patient-specific risk factors using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), thereby enabling transparent clinical interpretation. We specifically sought to address the unmet need for individualised risk stratification using real-world, multicentre observational data.

Design

Retrospective case-control study.

Setting

Across 23 rheumatology clinics in South Korea, based on data from a nationwide multicentre cohort.

Participants

A total of 5077 patients with RA were initially enrolled from the Korean Observational Study Network for Arthritis. After excluding those with missing clinical, demographic or prescription data and those not receiving MTX, 2375 patients remained eligible. Among these, 1654 and 1218 patients were included in the overall SE and GI SE analysis groups, respectively, after 1:1 propensity score matching. All patients were aged ≥18 years and met the 1987 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

The primary outcome was the presence of SE in patients with RA taking MTX, categorised into overall SE and GI SE, based on standardised patient questionnaires and clinical assessments. The secondary outcome was the identification of key predictors using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to enhance the interpretability of ML predictions.

Results

Among six ML classifiers, extreme gradient boosting demonstrated the highest performance in predicting overall SE (area under the curve (AUC) 0.781, F1 score 0.672, area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) 0.757) and GI SE (AUC 0.701, F1 score 0.690, AUPRC 0.670). SHAP analysis identified key predictive features including age, physician visual analogue scale score, alanine aminotransferase, Health Assessment Questionnaire score, celecoxib use and drug adherence. Logistic regression confirmed statistical significance for multiple variables (eg, OR 4.63; 95% CI 1.41 to 20.90 for non-adherence >30 days; OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.85 for celecoxib use). DeLong’s test indicated that boosting models significantly outperformed support vector machine (p

Conclusions

Interpretable ML models using real-world clinical data can accurately predict SE in patients with RA taking MTX. These models may facilitate early identification of high-risk individuals and inform personalised treatment strategies. Integration into clinical decision support systems could improve MTX safety monitoring. Further prospective validation in external cohorts is warranted.

Antibiotic stewardship in suspected neutropenic fever (ASTERIC trial): a multicentre, type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation, stepped-wedge, randomised controlled trial study protocol

Por: Rainer · T. H. · Lam · R. P. K. · Tsang · T. C. · Wai · A. K.-C. · Leung · S. C. · Leung · R. Y. Y. · Wong · C. K. H. · Gill · H. · Lam · W. W. T. · Wing Lok Chan · W. · Chi Kin Cheung · A. · Lau · M. T. · Lee · S. F. · Choi · Y. F. · Fong Lun Lee · H. · Mok · K. L. · Lam · H. C. · Lee
Introduction

Neutropenic fever (NF) has a crude mortality rate of 3–18%. International guidelines recommend that all patients with NF receive ultrabroad-spectrum antibiotics (UBSAs) within 1 hour of emergency department (ED) registration. However, over 70% patients presenting to hospital with suspected NF (sNF) cannot access absolute neutrophil count (ANC) result within 1 hour, do not have NF and do not require UBSAs. In ED and hospitalised patients with sNF, we hypothesise that the ASTERIC protocol effectively and safely reduces the use of UBSAs compared with standard care alone.

Methods and analysis

This pragmatic, parallel, multicentre, type 1, hybrid effectiveness-implementation, stepped-wedge, before-and-after, cluster randomised controlled trial aims to evaluate whether antibiotic prescribing can be safely reduced through implementing a multifaceted antibiotic stewardship intervention (ASTERIC) in adult patients with sNF presenting to EDs. The sNF was defined as a fever with a single oral temperature of ≥38.3°C (101°F) within 24 hours before ED registration or a temperature of ≥38.0°C (100.4°F) sustained over a 1-hour period, following last chemotherapy or targeted therapy within 6 weeks for any solid tumour, or in any period following therapies against leucaemia, lymphoma, myelodysplastic syndrome, aplastic anaemia, multiple myeloma or recipient of HSCT. The study will involve eight hospitals in Hong Kong with variable baseline practice. We will include 704 adult patients (352 patients in pre-implementation and post-implementation periods, respectively) with sNF (tympanic temperature ≥38.3°C) and 48 staff participants (6 staff participants in each hospital). Healthcare professionals will receive a multifaceted stewardship intervention consisting of risk assessment tools, fast-track ANCs, a decision tool for patient management and antibiotic use, supported by an educational package and staff interaction programmes (ASTERIC protocol). Patients’ blood ANC, and cancer therapy and chronic illness therapy scores will be measured. The RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance) and Proctor conceptual frameworks will be followed for evaluation of implementation. The main outcome measures are the mean total dose of UBSAs prescribed in 7 days and serious adverse events at 30 days. Data analysis will incorporate intention-to-treat, per-protocol and as-treated analyses for service outcomes (effectiveness, safety, quality of life assessments and cost-effectiveness) and mixed methods for implementation outcomes, informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. We expect that the study results will inform health policy with improvement in hospital services in treating stable sNF, evidenced by improved safe antibiotic stewardship, early antibiotic de-escalation and reduced costs and length of stay.

Ethics and dissemination

The institutional review boards of all study sites approved this study. This study will establish the ASTERIC protocol safely improves antibiotic stewardship and clinical management in adult patients with sNF. We will disseminate the findings through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and educational activities. All patients with sNF will be influenced by the new protocol which is agreed at hospital level. Randomisation is at hospital level, not patient level. Patient consent is sought for follow-up and data access, not for treatment. Staff consent is sought for interviewing.

Trial registration number

NCT06794320.

Mapping fine-scale spatial risk patterns of gestational diabetes over time in Australia: a nationwide geospatial study

Por: Takele · W. W. · Lim · S. · Adhinugraha · K. · Taniar · D. · Dalli · L. L. · Boyle · J. A.
Objective

To examine the geospatial distribution of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) over time in Australia.

Design

An ecological study was conducted using data from the National Diabetes Services Scheme (GDM cases). Data at Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) level, a medium-sized spatial unit, on population denominators (women who gave birth) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The spatiotemporal distribution of GDM was explored at the SA2 level over three periods: 2016–2017, 2018–2019 and 2020–2021. Hotspot and cluster analyses were undertaken using Getis-Ord Gi* and local Moran’s I statistics.

Setting

A nationwide study in Australia was conducted between 2016 and 2021.

Participants

Women diagnosed with GDM and those who gave birth were included.

Outcome measures

Age-standardised and crude incidence of GDM per SA2.

Results

During 2016–2021, 1 718 963 eligible women who gave birth in Australia were included. Hotspot areas of GDM were consistently observed in Victoria (Southwest and North Melbourne); Western Australia (South and Southwest Perth); Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (East and North Canberra); Queensland (North Brisbane) and New South Wales (West and Southwest Sydney and Southeast New South Wales). ACT (South Canberra), North Tasmania, Northern Territory (North Darwin) and Victoria (South East Melbourne) had new hotspot regions recorded in the last two consecutive study periods.

Conclusion

GDM incidence varies by geographical area over time, with hotspots in specific regions suggesting the need for geographically targeted policy interventions to curb the growing burden of GDM.

Effect of vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and lactation on the development of infants born to Tanzanian women living with HIV: a secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial

Por: Shobanke · T. · Muhihi · A. · Perumal · N. · Ulenga · N. · Al-Beity · F. M. A. · Duggan · C. P. · Fawzi · W. W. · Manji · K. P. · Sudfeld · C. R.
Background

Infants born to pregnant women living with HIV (WLHIV) are at greater risk for morbidity and mortality and may also have poorer developmental outcomes as compared with infants who are not exposed to HIV. Nutrition interventions in pregnancy may affect developmental outcomes.

Objectives

This study evaluated the effect of maternal vitamin D supplementation on infant development outcomes.

Design

We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomised, triple-blind, placebo-controlled trial of maternal vitamin D supplementation from June 2015 to October 2019.

Setting

Antenatal care clinics in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Participants

Pregnant WLHIV and their offspring.

Interventions

Daily 3000 IU vitamin D3 or placebo supplements taken during pregnancy and lactation.

Outcome measures

Infants were assessed for cognitive, language and motor development at 1 year of age with the Caregiver Reported Early Development Instruments (CREDI).

Results

A total of 2167 infants were eligible, and 1312 of them completed CREDI assessments at 1 year of age. Vitamin D supplementation had no effect on overall CREDI z-scores (standardised mean difference (SMD) 0.03, 95% CI –0.09, 0.15, p value 0.66). There was also no evidence of a difference between vitamin D and placebo groups in language (SMD 0.06, 95% CI –0.08, 0.21, p value 0.40), motor (SMD 0.02, 95% CI –0.09, 0.14, p value 0.69) or cognitive domain z-scores (SMD 0.05, 95% CI –0.08, 0.17, p 0.48).

Conclusions

Maternal vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and lactation did not affect infant development outcomes.

Trial registration number

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02305927.

Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis on utilisation of palliative care service and predictors among adult cancer patients in Ethiopia

Por: Demeke · A. D. · Yeshiwas · A. · Gebrie · H. · Ayehu Akele · M. · Gashaw · A. · Dessie Gesssess · A. · Melkie · T. T. · Bogale · N. · Eba · W. W.
Introduction

Palliative cancer care is comprehensive, specialised medical care of patients that aims to alleviate physical, mental and emotional distress based on patients’ needs rather than on prognosis. In Ethiopia, the federal ministry of health started palliative care (PC) in 2016. Since then, services have been developed and integrated as important components of the Health Sector Transformation Plan II. However, there is a scarcity of nationally summarised data regarding PC service utilisation in Ethiopia. Therefore, this protocol describes a planned systematic review and meta-analysis that will evaluate utilisation of PC services and its predictors among adult cancer patients in Ethiopia.

Methods and materials

The online databases of PubMed, Hinari, EMBASE, CINHAL, Science Direct, Scopus and Google Scholar will be comprehensively searched from inception to 31 February 2025. To assess the quality of included studies, the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools will be used. The statistical software STATA V.17 will be used for data analyses. To examine the heterogeneity between studies, inverse variance (I2) will be used. To calculate the pooled prevalence of PC service utilisation, a fixed or random effects meta-analyses model will be used with a 95% CI, depending on the presence or absence of heterogeneity between included studies. To look for publication bias, a visual inspection of the funnel plot and Egger and Begg’s regression test and a 5% level of significance will be used.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethical approval is not applicable. The results will be disseminated to academic beneficiaries and the public.

Effects of acoustic startle priming on poststroke dysarthria rehabilitation: study protocol for a double-blinded, single-centre randomised controlled trial in China

Por: Wang · M. · Xia · N. · Wu · Q. · Jiang · T. · Peng · C. · Li · J. · Li · D. · Lou · W. W. · Lu · M.
Introduction

Dysarthria is one of the most prevalent communication disorders following a stroke, and it can lead to social isolation and depression, significantly hindering rehabilitation progress. Recent studies suggest that acoustic startle priming (ASP) tasks may enhance speech performance and motor initiation through the corticoreticulospinal tract. This has opened up new possibilities for the application of ASP in the rehabilitation of poststroke dysarthria. The aim of this study is to investigate whether ASP can improve rehabilitation outcomes in individuals with poststroke dysarthria.

Methods and analysis

This prospective, randomised, controlled clinical trial plans to enrol 48 participants diagnosed with poststroke dysarthria. Participants will be randomly assigned to either the ASP group (n=24) or the control group (n=24). Both groups will undergo 30 min of standard dysarthria rehabilitation training daily, 5 days per week for 2 weeks. The ASP group will receive an additional 30 min articulation training with ASP, while the control group will receive an equivalent 30 min articulation training with normal acoustic stimuli. Speech and voice characteristics will be assessed using Frenchay Dysarthria Assessment, PRAAT software at baseline, 1 week and 2 weeks postintervention. Furthermore, Functional Near Infrared Spectroscopy will be employed during ASP tasks to investigate cortical activation and changes in brain network connectivity.

Ethics and dissemination

The study has been approved by the Tongji Hospital Medical Ethics Committee (TJ-IRB202312100). Raw data from this trial will be publicly available on the Public Management Platform for Clinical Research. The findings will be disseminated through international conferences and peer-reviewed journals.

Trial registration number

ChiCTR2400081279.

Comparison of outpatient attendance, cardiovascular risk management and cardiovascular health across preCOVID-19, during and postCOVID-19 periods: a prospective cohort study

Por: Zondag · A. G. M. · Haitjema · S. · de Groot · M. C. H. · de Boer · A. R. · van Solinge · W. W. · Bots · M. L. · Vernooij · R. W. M.
Objective

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial decrease was observed in hospital admissions and in-hospital procedures for patients with acute cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The extent to which measures to prevent COVID-19 transmission, for example, lockdowns, affected the outpatient care of patients at higher cardiovascular risk remains unclear. We aimed to compare outpatient department (OPD) attendance, cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) and cardiovascular health (CVH) of patients at higher cardiovascular risk referred to an OPD of a tertiary care centre between preCOVID-19, during and postCOVID-19 periods.

Design, setting and participants

We included all adult patients at higher cardiovascular risk referred to the cardiology, vascular medicine, diabetology, geriatrics, nephrology or multidisciplinary vascular surgery OPDs of the University Medical Centre Utrecht, the Netherlands, between March 2019 and December 2022, in a prospective cohort study.

Main outcome measures

We assessed trends in the number of first and follow-up appointments and in the completeness of extractable CVRM indicators from the electronic health record (EHR) as a proxy for CVRM guideline adherence. CVH was determined using the Life’s Essential 8 metric (score 0–100, the higher score, the better). We investigated whether CVH differed between COVID-19 periods compared with the reference period (ie, 2019) and stratified by OPDs, using multivariable linear regression, adjusted for age, gender, CVD history and whether the patient had a previous appointment before the reference period.

Results

Among 15 143 patients, we observed a 33% reduction in the weekly number of first appointments during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the largest reductions in the cardiology and nephrology OPDs, with no differences between women and men. Follow-up appointments conducted remotely, compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic, increased significantly for all OPDs. CVRM indicators were up to 11% less extractable during the first lockdown yet returned to prepandemic levels directly after the first lockdown period. The CVH score of patients visiting the nephrology, vascular medicine and geriatrics OPDs during the first lockdown was 11.23 (95% CI 2.74 to 19.72), 5.68 (95% CI 0.82 to 10.54) and 5.66 (95% CI 0.01 to 11.31) points higher, respectively, compared with the prepandemic period. In between the second and third lockdowns, the CVH score was comparable to the preCOVID reference period, yet for the cardiology OPD it was significantly higher (5.54, 95% CI 2.04 to 9.05).

Conclusions

During the COVID-19 pandemic, weekly numbers of first appointments to OPDs decreased, and a population with a higher CVH score (ie, better CVH) visited certain OPDs, especially during the first lockdown period. These suggest that patients with poorer CVH more often avoided or were unable to visit OPDs, which might have resulted in missed opportunities to control cardiovascular risk factors and potentially may have led to preventable disease outcomes. For future epidemics and pandemics, it seems vital to develop a strategy that includes an emphasis on seeking healthcare when needed, with specific attention to patients at higher CVD risk.

Somatostatin analogue continuation upon progression in patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumour (SAUNA trial): a randomised controlled trial protocol

Por: Chhajlani · S. · Kuiper · J. · Beutels · P. · Borbath · I. · Dercksen · W. · Deroose · C. M. · Heemskerk · S. · Polinder · S. · Roelant · E. · Smits · E. · Verhaegen · I. · Van der Massen · I. · Walenkamp · A. · de Herder · W. W. · Peeters · M. · Hofland · J. · Vandamme · T. · for the SA
Introduction

Gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP NET) are malignant neoplasms that impact survival. Somatostatin analogues (SSA) are used for treating hormonal symptoms caused by GEP NET and have antiproliferative effects. They are used as first-line therapy in patients with advanced GEP NET, but disease control is limited to a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 14–32 months. Second-line treatment options include targeted therapy (everolimus or sunitinib), or peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) with 177Lu-DOTATATE. In patients suffering from a NET-related hormonal syndrome, SSA is generally continued life-long. However, there is no consensus on whether it is beneficial to continue SSA in non-functional NET upon disease progression. Due to the ongoing activity of the somatostatin receptor pathway in GEP NET progressing on first-line SSA, we hypothesise that SSA have an added efficacy in second-line therapy.

Methods and analysis

The SAUNA trial is an international, multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, pragmatic clinical trial. 270 patients with advanced, non-functional GEP NET and progression under first-line SSA will be included in substudy 1 (PRRT; n=142) or substudy 2 (targeted therapy (everolimus/sunitinib); n=128) per investigator’s choice of second-line therapy and will be randomised (1:1) per substudy between SSA continuation or SSA withdrawal arms. Co-primary endpoints are the difference in progression-free survival (PFS) according to the RECIST (Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours) V.1.1 criteria and difference in time to deterioration (TTD) in quality of life (QoL) per substudy after initiating second-line therapy with or without SSA. Secondary endpoints include the PFS rate at 18 months, the difference in pooled PFS and TTD combining both substudies, overall survival, response rates, QoL, costs, cost-effectiveness and toxicity. The study design was developed in cooperation with the Belgium and Dutch patient organisations.

Ethics and dissemination

The study has been approved on 31 May 2023 by the Ethical Committees and Regulatory Authorities of the concerned member states (EU CT number 2022-502703-30-00). Both the trial management group and the steering committee will oversee good governance of this trial. Results of the study will be published in peer-reviewed international journals and presented at international conferences.

Trial registration number

NCT05701241.

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