Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, faces significant demographic transitions, with fertility rates playing a central role in shaping economic and healthcare policies. Family planning programmes face challenges due to funding limitations. The recent suspension of the US Agency for International Development funding exacerbates these issues, highlighting the need for accurate birth forecasting to guide policy and resource allocation. This study applied time-series and advanced machine-learning models to forecast future birth trends in Ethiopia.

Secondary data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey from 2000 to 2019 were used. After data preprocessing steps, including data conversion, filtering, aggregation and transformation, stationarity was checked using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Time-series decomposition was then performed, followed by time-series splitting. Seven forecasting models, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Prophet, Generalised Linear Models with Elastic Net Regularisation (GLMNET), Random Forest and Prophet-XGBoost, were built and compared. The models’ performance was evaluated using key metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R-squared value.

GLMNET emerged as the best model, explaining 77% of the variance with an RMSE of 119.01. Prophet-XGBoost performed reasonably well but struggled to capture the full complexity of the data, with a lower R-squared value of 0.32 and an RMSE of 146.87. Forecasts were made for both average monthly births and average births per woman over a 10-year horizon (2025–2034). The forecast for average monthly births indicated a gradual decline over the projection period. Meanwhile, the average births per woman showed an increasing trend but fluctuated over time, influenced by demographic shifts such as changes in fertility preferences, age structure and migration patterns.

This study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining time-series models and machine learning, with GLMNET and Prophet XGBoost emerging as the most effective. While average monthly births are expected to decline due to demographic transitions and migration, the average births per woman will remain high, reflecting persistent fertility preferences within certain subpopulations. These findings underscore the need for policies addressing both population trends and sociocultural factors.

To determine uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine and identify the associated factors among health professionals in major cities of the Amhara region in Ethiopia.

Institution-based, cross-sectional study.

The study was conducted from July to September 2022 across 40 health centres and 13 hospitals, representing 10 major cities within the Amhara region.

1251 participants, all of whom were vaccine-eligible health professionals, were selected using a systematic random sampling procedure.

The level of vaccine uptake in the study was determined by the proportion of health professionals who had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

1251 health professionals participated, with 848 (67.8%) reporting that they had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Key findings from the multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that health professionals aged 46 years and older were four times more likely to be vaccinated (95% CI, 1.656 to 9.510), married participants were 1.4 times more likely to take the vaccine (95% CI, 1.010 to 1.933) and those with good knowledge of COVID-19 vaccines were 1.75 times more likely to get vaccinated (95% CI, 1.307 to 2.331). Additionally, participants with a positive attitude towards vaccination were 3.65 times more likely to have received a vaccine (95% CI, 2.753 to 4.732).

The study reveals a commendable level of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among health professionals, emphasising their critical role in public health initiatives. However, the observed disparities in vaccination rates indicate the need for targeted interventions to improve vaccine coverage, particularly among younger professionals and those with limited knowledge of the vaccine. Addressing these gaps requires the implementation of tailored educational programmes that enhance understanding of COVID-19 vaccines. Furthermore, fostering positive attitudes through targeted campaigns, workplace-based initiatives and peer influence, particularly among younger and unmarried professionals, will be crucial. Encouraging vaccinated professionals to share their experiences and establishing regular follow-ups will also be essential strategies to improve vaccine acceptance and coverage in the region.

To estimate the recurrence of hypoglycaemia and the associated factors in neonates with birth asphyxia admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit in Northwest Amhara region’s comprehensive specialised hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia, in 2024.

A multicentre, institution-based, retrospective follow-up study.

Tertiary hospitals in Northwest Amhara Regional State, Northwest Ethiopia, from 1 July 2020 to 30 July 2024.

A total of 761 neonates with perinatal asphyxia were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of selected public hospitals in Northwest Amhara from July 2020 to July 2024.

The primary outcome measure of this study was recurrence of hypoglycaemia. Furthermore, the factors associated with recurrence of hypoglycaemia in newborns with perinatal asphyxia were noted.

The average number of hypoglycaemia cases among neonates with birth asphyxia was 2.05 (95% CI 1.939, 2.163) over the 28-day follow-up period. Meningitis (adjusted incidence rate ratio (AIRR)=1.16; 95% CI 1.04, 1.30), feeding in less than 72 hours (AIRR=1.17; 95% CI 1.05, 1.31), stage 3 hypoxic-ischaemic injury (AIRR=1.20; 95% CI 1.04, 1.39), length of hospital stay (AIRR=1.01; 95% CI 1.01, 1.03) and macrosomia (AIRR=1.39; 95% CI 1.19, 1.63) were significant factors associated with recurrence of hypoglycaemia.

The current study indicated that the mean recurrence of hypoglycaemia in newborns experiencing perinatal asphyxia was considerably higher. Presence of neonatal meningitis, delayed initiation of feeding 72 hours after birth, stage 3 hypoxic-ischaemic injury, length of hospital stay and macrosomia were the key factors associated with recurrence of hypoglycaemia.