Conectar
Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at seven-fold to ten-fold increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) when compared with those who experience a normoglycaemic pregnancy, and the cumulative incidence increases with the time of follow-up post birth. This protocol outlines the development and validation of a risk prediction model assessing the 5-year and 10-year risk of T2DM in women with a prior GDM diagnosis.
Data from all birth mothers and registered births in Victoria and South Australia, retrospectively linked to national diabetes data and pathology laboratory data from 2008 to 2021, will be used for model development and validation of GDM to T2DM conversion. Candidate predictors will be selected considering existing literature, clinical significance and statistical association, including age, body mass index, parity, ethnicity, history of recurrent GDM, family history of T2DM and antenatal and postnatal glucose levels. Traditional statistical methods and machine learning algorithms will explore the best-performing and easily applicable prediction models. We will consider bootstrapping or K-fold cross-validation for internal model validation. If computationally difficult due to the expected large sample size, we will consider developing the model using 80% of available data and evaluating using a 20% random subset. We will consider external or temporal validation of the prediction model based on the availability of data. The prediction model’s performance will be assessed by using discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration (calibration slope, calibration intercept, calibration-in-the-large and observed-to-expected ratio), model overall fit (Brier score and Cox-Snell R2) and net benefit (decision curve analysis). To examine algorithm equity, the model’s predictive performance across ethnic groups and parity will be analysed. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis-Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) statements will be followed.
Ethics approvals have been received from Deakin University Human Research Ethics Committee (2021–179); Monash Health Human Research Ethics Committee (RES-22-0000-048A); the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (EO2022/5/1369); the Aboriginal Health Research Ethics Committee of South Australia (SA) (04-23-1056); in addition to a Site-Specific Assessment to cover the involvement of the Preventative Health SA (formerly Wellbeing SA) (2023/SSA00065). Project findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and at scientific conferences and provided to relevant stakeholders to enable the translation of research findings into population health programmes and health policy.
Background
Comorbidities such as Type 2 diabetes mellitus significantly and adversely influence heart failure outcomes, especially in Black adult populations. Likewise, heart failure has a negative effect on diabetes and cardiometabolic outcomes. Dyspnea, a common symptom of heart failure, often correlates with disease severity and prognosis. However, the relationship between comorbid diabetes, dyspnea severity, and cardiometabolic biomarkers in Black adults with heart failure remains understudied.
Objectives
The purpose of this pilot study was to examine differences in the distressing heart failure symptom of dyspnea and in cardiometabolic and inflammatory biomarkers in Black adults living with heart failure with and without diabetes.
Methods
Black adults with heart failure were enrolled in this cross-sectional pilot study. Cardiometabolic and inflammatory biomarkers were measured via multiplex immunoassay. Univariate general liner models were used to identify group differences between persons with heart failure with comorbid diabetes and those without, controlling for age, sex, and comorbid burden.
Results
Participants were mostly female with a mean age of 55 years and mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 33%. Participants with diabetes exhibited higher dyspnea scores compared to those without diabetes, indicating greater symptom burden. Moreover, individuals with comorbid diabetes demonstrated higher levels of cardiometabolic and inflammatory markers.
Discussion
Comorbid diabetes was associated with higher dyspnea severity and adverse cardiometabolic profiles in Black adults with heart failure. These findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions addressing diabetes management and cardiometabolic risk factors to improve symptom control and outcomes in this high-risk population. Further research is warranted to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and develop tailored therapeutic strategies for managing comorbidities in persons with heart failure, particularly in minoritized communities.
Background
In the United States, Black adults have the highest prevalence of obesity and hypertension, increasing their risk of morbidity and mortality. Caregivers of persons with dementia are also at increased risk of morbidity and mortality due to the demands of providing care. Thus, Black caregivers—who are the second largest group of caregivers of persons with dementia in the United States—have the highest risks for poor health outcomes among all caregivers. However, the physiological changes associated with multiple chronic conditions in Black caregivers are poorly understood.
Objectives
In this study, metabolomics were compared to the metabolic profiles of Black caregivers with obesity, with or without hypertension. Our goal was to identify metabolites and metabolic pathways that could be targeted to reduce obesity and hypertension rates in this group.
Methods
High-resolution, untargeted metabolomic assays were performed on plasma samples from 26 self-identified Black caregivers with obesity, 18 of whom had hypertension. Logistic regression and pathway analyses were employed to identify metabolites and metabolic pathways differentiating caregivers with obesity only and caregivers with both obesity and hypertension.
Results
Key metabolic pathways discriminating caregivers with obesity only and caregivers with obesity and hypertension were butanoate and glutamate metabolism, fatty acid activation/biosynthesis, and the carnitine shuttle pathway. Metabolites related to glutamate metabolism in the butanoate metabolism pathway were more abundant in caregivers with hypertension, while metabolites identified as butyric acid/butanoate and R-(3)-hydroxybutanoate were less abundant. Caregivers with hypertension also had lower levels of several unsaturated fatty acids.
Discussion
In Black caregivers with obesity, multiple metabolic features and pathways differentiated among caregivers with and without hypertension. If confirmed in future studies, these findings would support ongoing clinical monitoring and culturally tailored interventions focused on nutrition (particularly polyunsaturated fats and animal protein), exercise, and stress management to reduce the risk of hypertension in Black caregivers with obesity.
Background
Fatigue is a highly prevalent symptom for individuals with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS); however, characterization of fatigue and investigation into the gut microbiome—a pathway that may contribute to fatigue—remains inadequately explored in Black women with PCOS.
Objectives
The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine fatigue and its relationship to the gut microbiome in adult Black women with PCOS.
Methods
Adult Black women with a diagnosis of PCOS were recruited for this cross-sectional study. The Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory-20 (MFI-20) and the PROMIS Fatigue Short Form were used to measure fatigue. The V3/V4 region of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene was sequenced to investigate gut microbial composition. Relative abundance and diversity values were calculated.
Results
We found that Black women with PCOS experience mild to moderate levels of fatigue. An inverse relationship between fatigue scores and alpha diversity values was found for the gut microbiome. We also found distinct beta diversity profiles based on fatigue. Lastly, when controlling for hypertension and body mass index, Ruminococcus bromii, Blautia obeum, Roseburia, and HT002 were associated with three subscales of the MFI-20.
Discussion
Black women with PCOS experience mild to moderate fatigue. Clinicians should be cognizant of this population’s increased risk for fatigue to adequately address their healthcare needs. We also found that gut microbial composition was associated with fatigue in Black women with PCOS. Specifically, a higher relative abundance of certain gut bacteria involved in short-chain fatty acid production and anti-inflammatory pathways was correlated with lower fatigue levels. Future studies should further investigate the link between the gut microbiome and fatigue to determine whether this relationship is causal as better insight could inform tailored diet and exercise interventions to alter the gut microbiome and reduce fatigue.
Background
Black adults have a higher risk for heart failure (HF) than others, which may be related to higher cardiovascular risk factors and also inflammatory dietary patterns. The Western diet is associated with inflammation and contributes to HF. Trimethylamine N-oxide is a diet-linked metabolite that contributes to inflammation and is associated with higher tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) levels, especially in HF populations. The dietary inflammatory index score measures a diet’s inflammatory potential and food’s inflammatory effects.
Objective
The purpose of this pilot study was to explore associations between the Western diet, dietary inflammatory index, trimethylamine N-oxide, relevant covariates and variables, and TNF-α in Black persons with HF.
Methods
Thirty-one Black participants (mean age = 55 years, 68% women) with HF were enrolled. Trimethylamine N-oxide and TNF-α levels were analyzed using immunoassays. A food frequency questionnaire was completed, and dietary inflammatory index scores and food groups were calculated. Analyses included correlations and I-test statistics.
Results
Mean dietary inflammatory index score was −0.38, noting an anti-inflammatory diet with slightly higher inflammatory diet scores in men compared to women. The dietary inflammatory index score showed a negative association with dietary choline but not with trimethylamine N-oxide or TNF-α. Trimethylamine N-oxide and age were positively correlated, along with the correlation for TNF-α with a moderate effect size. No relationship was found among dietary inflammatory index, TNF-α, and trimethylamine N-oxide variables.
Discussion
A greater understanding of intake of inflammatory foods and relationships with immune factors is warranted to inform intervention development. In Black adults with HF, it is important to consider the intake of inflammatory foods as increased age may affect the retention of dietary metabolites. Metabolites may also increase the levels of inflammation. Knowledge about these relationships could lead to tailored dietary interventions based on diet, age, and culture patterns. 
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