Development of a prognostic risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients

by Hirokazu Okada, Atsushi Ono, Koji Tomori, Tsutomu Inoue, Norio Hanafusa, Ken Sakai, Ichiei Narita, Toshiki Moriyama, Yoshitaka Isaka, Kei Fukami, Seiji Itano, Eiichiro Kanda, Naoki Kashihara

Background

Information of short-term prognosis after hemodialysis (HD) introduction is important for elderly patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and their families choosing a modality of renal replacement therapy. Therefore, we developed a risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients.

Materials and methods

We analyzed data of incident elderly HD patients from a nationwide cohort study of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry (JRDR) to develop a prognostic risk score. Candidate risk factors for early death within 1 year was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The risk score was developed by summing up points derived from parameter estimate values of independent risk factors. The association between risk score and early death was tested using Cox proportional hazards models. This risk score was validated twice by using an internal validation cohort derived from the JRDR and an external validation cohort collected for this study.

Results

Using the development cohort (n = 2,000), nine risk factors were retained in the risk score: older age (>85), yes = 2, no = 0; sex, male = 2, female = 0; lower body mass index (2.0 mg/dL), yes = 2, no = 0. In the internal and external validation cohorts (n = 739, 140, respectively), the medium- and high-risk groups (total score, 6 to 10 and 11 or more, respectively) showed significantly higher risk of early death than the low-risk group (total score, 0 to 5) (p Conclusion

We developed a prognostic risk score predicting early death within 1 year in incident elderly Japanese HD patients, which may help detect elderly patients with a high-risk of early death after HD introduction.

Hydrogen attenuates endothelial glycocalyx damage associated with partial cardiopulmonary bypass in rats

by Hiroki Iwata, Takasumi Katoh, Sang Kien Truong, Tsunehisa Sato, Shingo Kawashima, Soichiro Mimuro, Yoshiki Nakajima

Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) causes systemic inflammation and endothelial glycocalyx damage. Hydrogen has anti-oxidant and anti-inflammatory properties; therefore, we hypothesized that hydrogen would alleviate endothelial glycocalyx damage caused by CPB. Twenty-eight male Sprague–Dawley rats were randomly divided into four groups (n = 7 per group), as follows: sham, control, 2% hydrogen, and 4% hydrogen. The rats were subjected to 90 minutes of partial CPB followed by 120 minutes of observation. In the hydrogen groups, hydrogen was administered via the ventilator and artificial lung during CPB, and via the ventilator for 60 minutes after CPB. After observation, blood collection, lung extraction, and perfusion fixation were performed, and the heart, lung, and brain endothelial glycocalyx thickness was measured by electron microscopy. The serum syndecan-1 concentration, a glycocalyx component, in the 4% hydrogen group (5.7 ± 4.4 pg/mL) was lower than in the control (19.5 ± 6.6 pg/mL) and 2% hydrogen (19.8 ± 5.0 pg/mL) groups (P P = 0.999). The endothelial glycocalyces of the heart and lung in the 4% hydrogen group were thicker than in the control group. The 4% hydrogen group had lower inflammatory cytokine concentrations (interleukin-1β and tumor necrosis factor-α) in serum and lung tissue, as well as a lower serum malondialdehyde concentration, than the control group. The 2% hydrogen group showed no significant difference in the serum syndecan-1 concentration compared with the control group. However, non-significant decreases in serum and lung tissue inflammatory cytokine concentrations, as well as in serum malondialdehyde concentration, were observed. Administration of 4% hydrogen via artificial and autologous lungs attenuated endothelial glycocalyx damage caused by partial CPB in rats, which might be mediated by the anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant properties of hydrogen.