To evaluate oxygen saturation and vital signs measured in the community by emergency medical services (EMS) as clinical markers of COVID-19-positive patient deterioration.

A retrospective data analysis.

Patients were conveyed by EMS to two hospitals in Hampshire, UK, between 1 March 2020 and 31 July 2020.

A total of 1080 patients aged ≥18 years with a COVID-19 diagnosis were conveyed by EMS to the hospital.

The primary study outcome was admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) within 30 days of conveyance, with a secondary outcome representing mortality within 30 days of conveyance. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate, in a retrospective fashion, the efficacy of different variables in predicting patient outcomes.

Vital signs measured by EMS staff at the first point of contact in the community correlated with patient 30-day ICU admission and mortality. Oxygen saturation was comparably predictive of 30-day ICU admission (area under ROC (AUROC) 0.753; 95% CI 0.668 to 0.826) to the National Early Warning Score 2 (AUROC 0.731; 95% CI 0.655 to 0.800), followed by temperature (AUROC 0.720; 95% CI 0.640 to 0.793) and respiration rate (AUROC 0.672; 95% CI 0.586 to 0.756).

Initial oxygen saturation measurements (on air) for confirmed COVID-19 patients conveyed by EMS correlated with short-term patient outcomes, demonstrating an AUROC of 0.753 (95% CI 0.668 to 0.826) in predicting 30-day ICU admission. We found that the threshold of 93% oxygen saturation is prognostic of adverse events and of value for clinician decision-making with sensitivity (74.2% CI 0.642 to 0.840) and specificity (70.6% CI 0.678 to 0.734).